{"id":833,"date":"2021-07-02T08:44:31","date_gmt":"2021-07-02T06:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=833"},"modified":"2021-07-02T09:57:08","modified_gmt":"2021-07-02T07:57:08","slug":"ucuncu-jeopolitik-felaket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=833","title":{"rendered":"\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcNC\u00dc JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K FELAKET"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Yak\u0131n tarihinde Rusya iki b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaket ya\u015fad\u0131. Birincisi Brest-Litovsk Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019d\u0131r. \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n hantal ordusu da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, asker t\u00fcfe\u011fini alarak k\u00f6y\u00fcne d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ya da \u015fehir merkezlerinde ihtilalci g\u00fc\u00e7lere kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Alman \u0130mparatorluk Ordusu bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurarak Petrograd\u2019a 40 km yakla\u015ft\u0131.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1918\u2019de imzalanan antla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fczakereleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Bol\u015fevikler ac\u0131mas\u0131z jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklikle ilk kez tan\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. \u00d6\u011frendiklerini bir daha asla unutmayacaklard\u0131. Antla\u015fmay\u0131 \u201cge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme\u201d olarak g\u00f6sterdiler.  Nas\u0131l olsa Almanya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kapitalist bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinde devrim yak\u0131nd\u0131. Birle\u015fik Avrupa Sosyalist Devletler Federasyonu kurulacak, s\u0131n\u0131rlar \u00f6nemsizle\u015fecekti. Fakat Avrupa\u2019da devrim olmad\u0131. 1918-19 Alman devrimi, 1921 ve 1923\u2019teki kom\u00fcnist ayaklanma giri\u015fimleri ezildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBrest-Litovsk Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dyla Sovyetler Avrupa\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015fman devletlerle aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti.  Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesinden ba\u015flayan, Polonya, Finlandiya, Ukrayna ve Belarus\u2019un bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden olu\u015fan bu kay\u0131p b\u00f6lge, zaman\u0131n Fransa Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Clemenceau\u2019nun deyi\u015fiyle, kapitalizm ile sosyalizmi ay\u0131ran stratejik bir \u201ccordon sanitaire\u201d (g\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131) olu\u015fturdu. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler bu hatt\u0131 kom\u00fcnist Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 asker\u00ee olarak tahkim etmek istediler.  G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 ayn\u0131 hattan ku\u015fat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, tahkimat\u0131n bu kez Karadeniz\u2019e yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, G\u00fcney Kafkasya\u2019ya ve Rusya Federasyonu\u2019nun do\u011fusuna uzand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sovyet K\u0131z\u0131l Ordusu \u0130\u00e7 Sava\u015f (1918-22) s\u0131ras\u0131nda kuruldu. Sava\u015f tazminatlar\u0131n\u0131n karara ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Rapollo Dostluk Antla\u015fmas\u0131 (1922) s\u0131ras\u0131nda Almanya ile Sovyet Rusya gizli bir asker\u00ee anla\u015fma yapt\u0131. Bu anla\u015fma sayesinde hem Almanya silahlar\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Rus topraklar\u0131na aktararak Versailles Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (1919) getirdi\u011fi asker\u00ee k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan kurtuldu, hem de Rusya asker\u00ee yetene\u011fini art\u0131rma, silah teknolojisini geli\u015ftirme imk\u00e2n\u0131 buldu. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7lerinde Alman-Rus asker\u00ee e\u011fitim kamplar\u0131 kuruldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu yak\u0131nla\u015fmay\u0131 II D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hemen \u00f6ncesinde imzalanan Alman-Sovyet Sald\u0131rmazl\u0131k Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (1939) habercisi olarak g\u00f6rebiliriz.  Molotov-Ribbentrop Anla\u015fmas\u0131 olarak an\u0131lan bu paktla Stalin III. Enternasyonal\u2019in Leninist ideallerini feda ederek jeopoliti\u011fin gere\u011fini yerine getirdi. Clemencau\u2019nun \u201cg\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u201d da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. Fa\u015fist Almanya ile Kom\u00fcnist Rusya, Polonya ve Letonya\u2019y\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131lar; Finlandiya ve Estonya Sovyetler\u2019in, Litvanya ise Almanya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ki y\u0131l sonra Almanya d\u00fcnya kom\u00fcnizmini yok etmek ve Slavlar\u0131 k\u00f6lele\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in Barbarossa Harek\u00e2t\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (1941) ba\u015flatarak Sovyet Rusya\u2019ya sald\u0131rd\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n sonunda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi Almanya\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde hepsi NATO \u00fclkesi olan do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkelerini kapsayan COMECON\u2019u, Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 Ekonomik Yard\u0131mla\u015fma Konseyi\u2019ni (1949-1991) ve \u00fcye \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda asker\u00ee Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (1955-1991) kurdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi 1991 y\u0131l\u0131nda Minsk yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki Belovej orman\u0131nda imzalanan bir anla\u015fmayla geldi. 1922\u2019de Rusya ve Transkafkasya (G\u00fcrcistan, Ermenistan, Azerbaycan) Federasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anla\u015fmayla kurulan Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetleri Birli\u011fi, Rusya Federasyonu, Belarus ve Ukrayna Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anla\u015fmayla sona erdi, Birlik da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ronald Reagan ve Helmut Kohl, Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde NATO s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n asla de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi konusunda s\u00f6zl\u00fc g\u00fcvence vererek d\u00fcnyadan habersiz s\u0131\u011f Sovyet b\u00fcrokrat\u0131 Gorba\u00e7ev\u2019i kand\u0131rd\u0131lar, sarho\u015f Boris Yeltsin\u2019i bir soytar\u0131 olarak   \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerde dola\u015ft\u0131rarak e\u011flendiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonunda KGB hesap sormama g\u00fcvencesi vererek siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131 Yeltsin\u2019den devrald\u0131 ve istihbarat Albay\u0131 Putin neredeyse \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n ve Sovyet Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Politb\u00fcrosu\u2019nun birle\u015fik yetkilerine sahip olarak iktidar\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi. Rusya sosyalizmden kapitalizme ge\u00e7mi\u015f, oligarklar \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fclkiyetini ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015flerdi.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin, imparatorluk b\u00f6lgelerini Ortodoks \u00c7arl\u0131k ideolojisini kullanarak birle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat olmad\u0131. Bu ideolojinin geni\u015f Rus co\u011frafyas\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn etnik ve din\u00ee gruplar\u0131n e\u015fitli\u011fini 1936 Anayasas\u0131\u2019yla g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alarak b\u00fct\u00fcn milliyetlerin ve cemaatlerin \u00fczerinde yer alan Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin y\u00fcceltti\u011fi ideolojinin yerine ge\u00e7erek imparatorlu\u011fun birli\u011fini sa\u011flayamayaca\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada NATO verilen s\u00f6zleri umursamayarak h\u0131zla geni\u015fledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polonya 1999\u2019da, Estonya-Letonya-Litvanya ve Bulgaristan 2004\u2019te, Romanya 2007\u2019de NATO\u2019ya ge\u00e7ti. Rusya en geni\u015f ileriden savunma alan\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn hatlar\u0131yla kaybetmi\u015f oldu.  En eski Slav  kenti  Kiev\u2019i, Donbass Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (2014) ard\u0131ndan Donetsk\u2019e kadar Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 kaybetti.  K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 son anda ilhak edebildi, Sivastopol Deniz \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc k\u0131smen kurtarabildi, ana karayla b\u00f6lgenin irtibat\u0131n\u0131 19 km uzunlu\u011fundaki Ker\u00e7 K\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019yle sa\u011flad\u0131. Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesindeki ileri karakolun, 2011\u2019de Medvedev\u2019in yeniden faaliyete ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi Kaliningrad (orta menzilli) F\u00fcze \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Rus ana karas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 kesildi. NATO, Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki eski Nazi asker\u00ee \u00fcslerini canland\u0131rarak buralar\u0131 f\u00fczelerle, z\u0131rhl\u0131 birliklerle donatt\u0131, Balkanlar\u2019\u0131 tahkim etti, Karadeniz\u2019de varl\u0131k g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n  sona ermesinden 40 y\u0131l sonra ABD n\u00fckleer denizalt\u0131lar\u0131 Barents Denizi\u2019nde dola\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131, buzlar\u0131n erimekte oldu\u011fu Arktik b\u00f6lge (kutup dairesi) ABD ile Rusya aras\u0131nda yeni bir asker\u00ee rekabet alan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmalar ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ngiltere sahaya inerek Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de ve\u00a0 Karadeniz\u2019de\u00a0 Rusya\u2019y\u0131 tehdit ederken, NATO\u2019nun Sea Breeze 2021 Karadeniz tatbikat\u0131yla e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak Bak\u00fc\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye-Azerbaycan Asker\u00ee Tatbikat\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan ne anl\u0131yoruz?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir jeopolitik felakete mi yakla\u015f\u0131yor? Ku\u015fatmay\u0131 yarma \u015fans\u0131 var m\u0131? Uzla\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli asker\u00ee ve ekonomik bask\u0131 uygulayarak, belki yeni Alman Ostpolitik\u2019ini de (Do\u011fu Politikas\u0131) kullanarak Rusya\u2019y\u0131 kendi politik sistemine entegre etmeye, b\u00f6ylece onu \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kendi saf\u0131nda mevzilendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7aba, Putin oligar\u015fisinin n\u00fckleer silah kullanmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Giri\u015fimin tamam\u0131n\u0131, bask\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma yoluyla s\u00fcren bir pazarl\u0131k s\u00fcreci, raz\u0131 etme \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rebiliriz. Rusya Federasyonu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir jeopolitik felaketten ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak tarihsel birikime, Putin Oligar\u015fisi ise kadim Moskova ya da Nijni-Novgorod Kinezli\u011fi\u2019ne kadar daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak hatalar yapmayacak kadar jeopolitik deneyime sahiptir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde \u00c7in\u2019in k\u0131nama, protesto, ortak asker\u00ee g\u00f6steri ve tatbikat d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda k\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 bile k\u0131p\u0131rdatmayaca\u011f\u0131; Tibet-Sincan-\u0130\u00e7 Mo\u011folistan-Man\u00e7urya ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda \u201cTeyakkuz\u201d h\u00e2linde olaca\u011f\u0131; g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc kuzeyden, Kazakistan istikametinden ve Sibirya\u2019n\u0131n zenginliklerinden ay\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131; Arktik ula\u015f\u0131m hatlar\u0131na bir \u015fekilde ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 fakat asker\u00ee faaliyetini esas olarak Pasifik istikametinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi, bu arada Bat\u0131\u2019yla uzla\u015fma yollar\u0131 aramaya devam edece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusu az alan\u0131 geni\u015f, \u00c7in\u2019in ise n\u00fcfusu fazla alan\u0131 dard\u0131r; jeopolitik ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin ise y\u00fcz\u00fc so\u011fuktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emperyalist bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak ABD\u2019nin yeniden bir d\u00fcnya hegemonu olamayaca\u011f\u0131 ne kadar kesinse, Rus oligar\u015fisinin ya da Kom\u00fcnist Partisi y\u00f6netiminde kapitalist kalk\u0131nma yolunu se\u00e7en \u00c7in\u2019in ya da ikisinin birden kendi y\u00f6netim tarzlar\u0131n\u0131 yayarak k\u00fcresel hegemonya kuramayacaklar\u0131 da o kadar kesindir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eimdilik asker\u00ee manevra, dolayl\u0131 tutum, mevzi tutma, vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131, siber sava\u015f, casusluk\/sabotaj ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 silahlanmayla s\u00fcren bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma son tahlilde farkl\u0131 rejimlerle y\u00f6netilen emperyalist kapitalist \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan, azg\u0131n kapitalizmin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir III. Emperyalist Payla\u015f\u0131m Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019d\u0131r. N\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etkisi nedeniyle I. ve II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015flar\u0131 gibi topyek\u00fbn bir s\u0131cak sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali \u00e7ok zay\u0131ft\u0131r. Yeni So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n, en iyi ihtimalle, yeni bir uluslararas\u0131 siyas\u00ee, ticar\u00ee ve ekolojik hukuk d\u00fczeni kuruluncaya kadar s\u00fcrmesi, k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin \u015fimdiki krizinin b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkelerde yeni toplumsal dinamikleri harekete ge\u00e7irmesi beklenmelidir. \u0130nsanl\u0131k vah\u015fi kapitalizme ra\u011fmen bu gezegende bar\u0131nma imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n sonuna gelmi\u015ftir. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 02.07. 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          Yak\u0131n tarihinde Rusya iki b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaket ya\u015fad\u0131. Birincisi Brest-Litovsk Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019d\u0131r. \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n hantal ordusu da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, asker t\u00fcfe\u011fini alarak k\u00f6y\u00fcne d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ya da \u015fehir merkezlerinde ihtilalci g\u00fc\u00e7lere kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Alman \u0130mparatorluk Ordusu bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurarak Petrograd\u2019a 40 km yakla\u015ft\u0131.   1918\u2019de imzalanan antla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fczakereleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Bol\u015fevikler ac\u0131mas\u0131z jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklikle ilk kez tan\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. \u00d6\u011frendiklerini bir daha … <\/p>\n

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