Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amerikan f\u00fcze gemilerinin seyir h\u00e2linde oldu\u011fu Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de Rusya 25 gemi, 30 u\u00e7akla tatbikat yapt\u0131. NATO Bulgaristan\u2019da at\u0131\u015fl\u0131 asker\u00ee tatbikat yap\u0131yor. ABD ve Kanada Ukrayna h\u00fck\u00fcmetini takviye i\u00e7in Donbass b\u00f6lgesine asker sevk ediyor. ABD\u2019nin 2. Atlantik Filosu, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminden daha geni\u015f bir deniz sahas\u0131nda g\u00f6revlendirildi (Cem G\u00fcrdeniz, Ayd\u0131nl\u0131k, 02.09.18). B\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmeler, 2001\u2019de ABD\u2019nin Afganistan sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015flayan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc nesil d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kritik bir evreye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc nesil sava\u015f, d\u00fc\u015fman unsurlar\u0131n siyas\u00ee, iktisadi, toplumsal ve asker\u00ee b\u00fct\u00fcn sistemleri zamana yayarak bir arada kulland\u0131klar\u0131, ter\u00f6rist gruplar ve paral\u0131 askerlerle verilen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu sava\u015flar\u0131n ulusal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 a\u015farak b\u00fct\u00fcn hassas b\u00f6lgeleri kaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek teknolojili bir sava\u015f t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rusya ve \u00c7in<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Obama d\u00f6neminin asker\u00ee doktrini Pasifik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131yd\u0131, esas olarak \u00c7in\u2019i ku\u015fatmay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Pentagon\u2019un bu stratejiyi revizyondan ge\u00e7irerek Do\u011fu Akdeniz, Karadeniz, Do\u011fu Avrupa (Ukrayna dahil) ve Balt\u0131k Denizi \u00fczerinden Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ku\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00f6ncelik verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu safla\u015fmada belirleyici olan \u00c7in\u2019in tutumudur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD\u2019nin yeni mevzilenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 36 bin tank ve binden fazla sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131yla 11-15 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de icra edece\u011fi Vostok 2018 tatbikat\u0131, bu ku\u015fatmaya verilen bir yan\u0131tt\u0131r. NATO s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu tatbikatla \u201c\u00e7ok geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00c7in\u2019in Vostok tatbikat\u0131na 3200 asker ve 30 sava\u015f u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131yla kat\u0131lmas\u0131 bu \u00fclkenin Atlantik tehdidine kar\u015f\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. NATO i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler, ABD-Avrupa ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 vs dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin bu \u00e7apta bir askeri tatbikata katabilece\u011fi bir ittifak sistemi bulunmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00c7in\u2019in Rusya\u2019yla olan tarihi ve stratejik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 (bu konuda bkz. Aleksander Dugin, Rus Jeopoliti\u011fi<\/em>, K\u00fcre 2005, \u00f6zellikle s. 186-191) a\u015fabilmesi h\u00e2linde, ABD emperyal g\u00fcc\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada gerilemeye devam edecektir. \u00c7in\u2019in aksi y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi ve 1972\u2019deki gibi bir ABD-\u00c7in yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi h\u00e2linde ise Rusya\u2019n\u0131n jeostratejik daralmaya u\u011framas\u0131 ve uzun vadede \u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131nda gerilen, iki kutuplu, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f benzeri bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 (denge durumu) m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ABD ku\u015fatmas\u0131na direnebilmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fcneyindeki \u201cb\u00f6lgesel devletler\u201di (Suriye, T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran) kendi stratejik konseptine dahil etmesi zorunludur. Rusya \u015fimdilik sadece Suriye\u2019yi asker\u00ee ara\u00e7larla kendi saf\u0131na katabilmi\u015f, ge\u00e7en \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Lavrov \u201cT\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019la Suriye\u2019de nihai ama\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z tam \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor\u201d demi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stratejide Karars\u0131zl\u0131k<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Suriye Ordusu b\u00f6lgedeki b\u00fct\u00fcn gerici g\u00fc\u00e7leri s\u00fcp\u00fcrerek \u0130dlib\u2019de toplad\u0131. Bu b\u00f6lgede BM Suriye Temsilcisi\u2019nin s\u00f6zleriyle \u201ckusursuz bir f\u0131rt\u0131na\u201d bekleniyor. ABD-AB-T\u00fcrkiye ile Rusya-\u0130ran-T\u00fcrkiye \u0130dlib\u2019de kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi. T\u00fcrkiye her iki cephede yer al\u0131yor. Hem Rusya\u2019n\u0131n F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 i\u00e7in Suriye hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrk u\u00e7aklar\u0131na a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131, hem de ABD\u2019nin koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle birlikte Do\u011fu Guta\u2019da kimyasal sald\u0131r\u0131 bahanesiyle Suriye\u2019yi vurmas\u0131n\u0131 alk\u0131\u015flad\u0131. Bir aya\u011f\u0131 Astana\u2019da, bir aya\u011f\u0131 Cenevre\u2019de. Say\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Cenevre ile Astana\u2019y\u0131 birbirine alternatif g\u00f6rmediklerini her f\u0131rsatta belirtiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0130dlib\u2019den sonra Suriye Ordusu\u2019nun Afrin-El Bab-Cerablus\u2019a y\u00f6nelece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 12 G\u00f6zetleme Noktas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 z\u0131rhl\u0131 birliklerle takviye etti\u011fi \u0130dlib\u2019deki baz\u0131 silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgeye sevk etti\u011fine dair haberler geliyor. Siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131n cihat\u00e7\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerle yak\u0131n ili\u015fkileri biliniyor. Rusya, Nisan 2016\u2019da, Suriye\u2019de I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelere T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 yollarla silah ve kimyasal madde g\u00f6nderdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin belgeleri BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019ne sunmu\u015ftu (Sputnik, 01.04.16).<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00dclkemizin b\u00fct\u00fcn akl\u0131 selim insanlar\u0131 Suriye\u2019yle ittifak kurmas\u0131 i\u00e7in siyas\u00ee iktidara neredeyse yalvard\u0131. Ancak b\u00f6lgedeki cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerle yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan ve kendisinde Davuto\u011flu\u2019nun Stratejik Derinlik\u2019inden bu yana b\u00f6lgesel bir S\u00fcnni misyon vehmeden h\u00fck\u00fcmetin denge siyaseti zannetti\u011fi karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sert bir kayaya \u00e7arp\u0131ncaya kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin uzun s\u00fcre izledi\u011fi politikay\u0131 ans\u0131z\u0131n 180 derece de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi \u00e7ok zordur; az rastlanan bir olayd\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden d\u0131\u015f politikada \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fikliler daima iktidar de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin ard\u0131ndan gelir. D\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda radikal de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmak zorunda kalan bir \u00fclke, \u00f6nce ba\u015f\u0131ndaki iktidar\u0131, en az\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri kadrosunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmek ve tutarl\u0131\/inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmak zorundad\u0131r. El alt\u0131ndan, gizli diplomasiyle \u00e7akt\u0131rmadan d\u0131\u015f politika de\u011fi\u015ftirilmez. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin talihsizli\u011fi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc nesil d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131na ideolojik karga\u015fa ve rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden oturmam\u0131\u015f bir devlet yap\u0131s\u0131yla ve asker\u00ee uzmanl\u0131\u011fa de\u011fer vermeyen dar bir siyas\u00ee iradeyle yakalanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ayd\u0131nl\u0131k<\/em>, 07. 09. 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yavuz Alogan Amerikan f\u00fcze gemilerinin seyir h\u00e2linde oldu\u011fu Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de Rusya 25 gemi, 30 u\u00e7akla tatbikat yapt\u0131. NATO Bulgaristan\u2019da at\u0131\u015fl\u0131 asker\u00ee tatbikat yap\u0131yor. ABD ve Kanada Ukrayna h\u00fck\u00fcmetini takviye i\u00e7in Donbass b\u00f6lgesine asker sevk ediyor. ABD\u2019nin 2. Atlantik Filosu, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminden daha geni\u015f bir deniz sahas\u0131nda g\u00f6revlendirildi (Cem G\u00fcrdeniz, Ayd\u0131nl\u0131k, 02.09.18). B\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmeler, … <\/p>\n