Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sava\u015flarda cepheler olur. Devletler b\u00fct\u00fcn imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetleriyle ordular\u0131n\u0131 seferber ederler, \u00fclkeler fethedilir ya\u011fmalan\u0131r, \u201cyenenler yenilenlerin diki\u015fsiz ak libaslar\u0131nda silerler k\u0131l\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131n\u0131,\u201d bunu g\u00f6renler ba\u015flar\u0131na dev\u015firirler ak\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131; mezarl\u0131klar yoksul \u015fehit ailelerinin g\u00f6zya\u015flar\u0131yla y\u0131kan\u0131rken silah t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f vurguncular\u0131n\u0131n kasalar\u0131 parayla dolup ta\u015far; nihayet kahramanl\u0131k nutuklar\u0131 yat\u0131\u015f\u0131r, bir masaya oturan taraflar m\u00fctareke \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere ederler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc nesil sava\u015flarda b\u00f6yle olmuyor. Sava\u015f oyunu bir iki de\u011fil, elli y\u00fcz hamle sonras\u0131n\u0131n hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131 fakat her an her \u015feyin de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fi uzun s\u00fcreli \u00e7ok boyutlu bir satran\u00e7 gibi oynan\u0131yor; 24 saat uzaydan g\u00f6zetlenen i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f geni\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alanlar\u0131nda diplomasinin nerede bitip casuslu\u011fun nerede ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, gizli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin nerede bitip silah cay\u0131rt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nerede koptu\u011fu, petrol ve para d\u00fcmenlerinin nas\u0131l d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, saflar\u0131n nas\u0131l birle\u015fip ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzaktan anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle taraflar\u0131n niyetlerini anlamak ve hareketlerini izlemek \u00e7ok zor. Fakat kafadaki tasar\u0131ma ve siyas\u00ee hedeflere g\u00f6re olaylar\u0131 yorumlayarak analiz yapmak, her \u015feyi anl\u0131yormu\u015f gibi davranmak \u00e7ok kolay. Bu y\u00fczden sahici asker\u00ee uzmanlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yazanlar\u0131n genellikle \u00f6nce ate\u015f edip sonra ni\u015fan ald\u0131klar\u0131 ve hedefin att\u0131klar\u0131 merminin y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine do\u011fru gelmesini bekledikleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunu do\u011fal kar\u015f\u0131lamak gerekir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni sava\u015f tarz\u0131nda bir hamlenin maksad\u0131n\u0131 ancak uzun s\u00fcre sonra anlayabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anl\u0131k bir foto\u011fraf \u00e7ekmek gerekirse, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0130dlib Mutabakat\u0131\u2019yla kendi d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ve hedeflerine uygun bir ba\u015far\u0131 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. ABD\u2019nin ta\u015feronu olarak b\u00f6lgede bir S\u00fcnni n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 edinemeyen siyas\u00ee iktidar, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n stratejik nedenlerle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yle aras\u0131n\u0131 iyi tutma mecburiyetine oynayarak \u0130dlib\u2019de her an her \u015feyin olabilece\u011fi bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131 elde etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Say\u0131n Reis\u2019in \u015fu s\u00f6zlerinden anl\u0131yoruz: \u201cLafta herkes Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden s\u00f6z ediyor. Ama uygulamaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z zaman, herkes parselasyonu yapm\u0131\u015f. (\u2026) Bize diyorlar ki \u2018Bizi buraya rejim \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131.\u2019 Biz de diyoruz ki, \u2018Sizi rejim \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131ysa bizi de buraya Suriye halk\u0131 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131.\u2019 Aram\u0131zdaki fark bu. \u015eu anda kimse orada, \u0130dlib\u2019de ellerinde Rus bayraklar\u0131yla dola\u015fm\u0131yor, ABD bayraklar\u0131yla dola\u015fm\u0131yor, Alman ya da Frans\u0131z bayraklar\u0131yla dola\u015fm\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk bayraklar\u0131yla dola\u015f\u0131yor. Bunun bir anlam\u0131 var.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ger\u00e7ekten, \u00e7ok anlaml\u0131. Suriye ve Rusya b\u00f6lgedeki en gerici, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 en vah\u015fi g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u0130dlib\u2019e s\u00fcp\u00fcrd\u00fc, onlar\u0131 ikna ve \u201csilahs\u0131zland\u0131rma\u201d sorumlulu\u011funu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00fckledi. \u015eimdi b\u00f6lgenin b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015feriat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ellerinde T\u00fcrk bayraklar\u0131yla dola\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda ABD\/PKK parselasyonu yetmiyormu\u015f gibi, NATO \u00fcyesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda bir parselasyon edinme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 mutlu etmesini bekleyemeyiz. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6z\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kamayan Suriye, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Halep-Lazkiye (M4), Halep-Hama (M5) karayollar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Esas sorunu \u0130dlib\u2019in do\u011fusundaki \u00c7e\u00e7en \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Cunud el \u015eam ile bat\u0131s\u0131ndaki T\u00fcrkistan \u0130slam Partisi militanlar\u0131n\u0131n tasfiyesi olan Rusya ise 15-20 km.lik tampon b\u00f6lge sayesinde \u015fimdilik Hmeymim\u2019deki hava, Tartus\u2019taki deniz \u00fcslerinin g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f oldu. HT\u015e ge\u00e7en hafta rol icab\u0131 (rol icab\u0131!) \u0130dlib Mutabakat\u0131\u2019n\u0131 reddederek silah b\u0131rakmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu vah\u015fi \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den beslenmek, s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgelerimize yerle\u015fip g\u00fc\u00e7 toplamak d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir \u015fans\u0131 kalmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BM Genel Sekreteri Gutierrez tampon b\u00f6lge uygulan\u0131rsa \u201c1 milyonu \u00e7ocuk 3 milyon sivilin hayat\u0131 kurtar\u0131labilir\u201d \u015feklinde duygusal bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yaparken, Mutabakat\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Lazkiye\u2019ye birka\u00e7 f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatan ABD\u2019nin D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u201cSuriye\u2019de \u015fiddeti azaltacak her samimi \u00e7abay\u0131 memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz,\u201d dedi. Her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fck \u201ctavan yapt\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u015eimdi herkes T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hamlesini, \u0130dlib kart\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l oynayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 merak ediyor. Her an her \u015feyin olabilece\u011fi \u00e7ok boyutlu, \u00e7ok bilinmeyenli satran\u00e7 devam ediyor. Peki bizim bayra\u011f\u0131m\u0131z en vah\u015fi \u015feriat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n eline nas\u0131l ge\u00e7ti, onlar\u0131n elinde nas\u0131l kullan\u0131lacak? Bunu sormam\u0131z, biraz da utan\u00e7 duymam\u0131z gerekmez mi? Ayd\u0131nl\u0131k<\/em>, 24. 09. 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yavuz Alogan Sava\u015flarda cepheler olur. Devletler b\u00fct\u00fcn imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetleriyle ordular\u0131n\u0131 seferber ederler, \u00fclkeler fethedilir ya\u011fmalan\u0131r, \u201cyenenler yenilenlerin diki\u015fsiz ak libaslar\u0131nda silerler k\u0131l\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131n\u0131,\u201d bunu g\u00f6renler ba\u015flar\u0131na dev\u015firirler ak\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131; mezarl\u0131klar yoksul \u015fehit ailelerinin g\u00f6zya\u015flar\u0131yla y\u0131kan\u0131rken silah t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f vurguncular\u0131n\u0131n kasalar\u0131 parayla dolup ta\u015far; nihayet kahramanl\u0131k nutuklar\u0131 yat\u0131\u015f\u0131r, bir masaya oturan taraflar m\u00fctareke \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere ederler. … <\/p>\n