{"id":1982,"date":"2026-05-17T07:33:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T05:33:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1982"},"modified":"2026-05-17T07:33:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T05:33:11","slug":"beijingde-ilk-tango","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1982","title":{"rendered":"BE\u0130J\u0130NG’DE \u0130LK TANGO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hibrit sava\u015flar hedef \u00fclkeleri t\u00fcketerek sona erdi\u011fi vakit, \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin verili durum \u00fczerinden yeni bir payla\u015f\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131na varaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7 kez yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anla\u015fmay\u0131 zorlayan en \u00f6nemli sebep iki k\u00fcresel g\u00fcc\u00fcn Ukrayna ve \u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015flardan \u00e7\u0131kan derslerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu iki sava\u015f, direnen bir \u00fclkeyi konvansiyonel silahlarla i\u015fgal giri\u015fiminin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 maliyetli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Teknoloji harikas\u0131 pahal\u0131 silah sistemlerinin nereden f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belli olmayan ucuz ve \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc u\u00e7an cisimlerle vurulabildi\u011fi, hava savunma sistemlerinin bu silahlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7aresiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Emperyalist kapitalist \u00fclkelerin iktisadi ve toplumsal yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu t\u00fcrden uzun s\u00fcreli konvansiyonel sava\u015flar\u0131 kald\u0131racak g\u00fc\u00e7te olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taraflar asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7lerini kurumsal olan ya da olmayan ittifak sistemleri i\u00e7inde birle\u015ftiremediler. NATO \u00fclkeleri tehdit de\u011ferlendirmesi yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ortak d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 tan\u0131mlayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in birle\u015femedi. Rusya, \u00c7in ve Kuzey Kore\u2019nin asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7lerine e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm sa\u011flayan bir ittifak sistemi zaten yoktu. \u00a0Muhtemelen hedef tespit, basit hava savunma sistemleri, belki roket yak\u0131t\u0131 vs d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a katk\u0131lar\u0131 olmad\u0131. Kesin olan tek giri\u015fim, K. Kore\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya piyade birli\u011fi ve top mermisi g\u00f6ndermesiydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin (d\u00fcveli muazzama) konvansiyonel imk\u00e2nlara kafa yormadan y\u0131llarca kesin sonu\u00e7lu n\u00fckleer sava\u015fa haz\u0131rland\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131; \u00f6nleyici vuru\u015f (preemptive strike), ilk vuru\u015fla netice alma ya da mukabil vuru\u015fu \u00f6nleme teknikleri geli\u015ftirerek \u201c\u00e7a\u011fda\u015f ve modern!\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 bir harp doktrini olu\u015fturduklar\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eimdi bu doktrinle ne yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemiyorlar. N\u00fckleer silah kabiliyetlerini tehdit niteli\u011finde \u201cg\u00f6steri ve tatbikat\u201d yaparak te\u015fhir etmekle yetiniyorlar. Trump bir h\u00f6d\u00fck olarak \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde parlayacak \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201dtan s\u00f6z ederken, Ruslar on adet f\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kuzey Amerika\u2019y\u0131 haritadan silecek RS-8 Sarmat f\u00fczelerini, \u00c7in ise ayn\u0131 tesir kabiliyetine sahip Donfeng-5B f\u00fczelerini sergiliyor, \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ate\u015f etme ihtimali olmayan mahalle kabaday\u0131s\u0131 gibi silah g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tahrip g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda (Hiro\u015fima\u2019ya at\u0131lan\u0131n 200 kat\u0131 ve fazlas\u0131) bu silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131m de\u011feri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde olu\u015fan \u201cdeh\u015fet dengesi\u201dnin farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve sava\u015f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 belirledi\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz. O s\u0131n\u0131r\u00a0\u00a0 bir kez ge\u00e7ildi\u011finde\u00a0\u00a0 taraflar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika, k\u00fcresel ekonomi vs \u015f\u00f6yle dursun, insanl\u0131ktan bile s\u00f6z edemeyece\u011fini herkes biliyor.\u00a0 \u00a0Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya verdi\u011fi m\u00fchimmat\u0131n tahrip g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutma mecburiyeti bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir an i\u00e7in\u00a0\u00a0 ABD ile \u00c7in\u2019in Pasifik\u2019te topyek\u00fbn sava\u015fa girdi\u011fini, sava\u015f\u0131n ileri a\u015famalar\u0131nda yenilmekte olan taraf\u0131n \u00a0n\u00fckleer silah kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (\u015fu \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda bile n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine gelindi); Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesi ya da Polonya\/Finlandiya istikametinde hareketlenen Rus ordusuna kar\u015f\u0131 Avrupa devletlerinin n\u00fckleer silah kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ya da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n uzun menzilli y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 f\u00fcze tehdidi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ayn\u0131 silahlarla Londra ve Br\u00fcksel\u2019i vurdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. \u00a0Hi\u00e7bir zafer b\u00f6yle bir felaketin yarataca\u011f\u0131 insan\u00ee maliyeti kar\u015f\u0131layamaz. Tarihin sonu i\u015fte o zaman olur. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I. ve II. Payla\u015f\u0131m Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7ler oldu. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendirdiler. N\u00fckleer \u00e7a\u011fda b\u00f6yle bir ihtimal yok.  Ayr\u0131ca kapitalist \u00f6lmek de\u011fil k\u00e2r etmek, n\u00fckleer \u00e7\u00f6pl\u00fck de\u011fil serbest piyasa ister. Amerikal\u0131, Avrupal\u0131, Rus, Japon ya da \u00c7inli olsun k\u00fcresel burjuvazinin her kesimi \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ve do\u011fan\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r tahribi yak\u0131n tehlike olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kendi devletini uzla\u015fmaya, gerekti\u011finde geri ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayacak, d\u00fc\u011fmeye basmak ya da anahtar\u0131 \u00e7evirmekle g\u00f6revli bir general ya da bakan mutlaka bir di\u011feri taraf\u0131ndan engellenecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcveli muazzama g\u00fc\u00e7leri bu ger\u00e7e\u011fin fark\u0131nda olarak payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmeden \u201cdolayl\u0131 tutum\u201dla, hibrit sava\u015flarla, vekil etnik ve din\u00ee gruplar ve kendilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 uydu devletlerle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam edecekler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu \u0131\u015f\u0131kta Trump-\u015ei bulu\u015fmas\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, yeni bir Yalta Konferans\u0131\u2019na (1945) giden yolda at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ad\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kapal\u0131 kap\u0131lar ard\u0131nda ne konu\u015ftuklar\u0131n\u0131 bilemeyiz, ancak uydurabiliriz. Mesela Trump \u00e7ip ithalat\u0131 yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015feteyim sen de nadir toprak elementlerini aksatma demi\u015f; \u015ei ise ben zaten kendi \u00e7iplerimi \u00fcretiyorum sen Tayvan\u2019a milyar dolarl\u0131k silah paketini ask\u0131ya al, \u00c7in\u2019e petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azaltma \u00e7abas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7 diye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermi\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yalta kararlar\u0131nda konu\u015fulanlar antla\u015fma imzaland\u0131ktan on sene sonra (1955) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131, Churchil\u2019le Stalin\u2019in bir sigara paketinin \u00fczerine kalemle y\u00fczdeler \u00e7iziktirerek Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 nas\u0131l payla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok sonra \u00f6\u011frenildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yalta kararlar\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sava\u015f sona ermi\u015fti. \u015eimdi yeni payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 evresindeyiz. Fakat birbirini yok etmeye ko\u015fullanm\u0131\u015f biri kapitalist, di\u011feri kom\u00fcnist iki ayr\u0131 sistem yok. B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya kapitalist, uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f tedarik zincirleri ve ileti\u015fim hatlar\u0131yla bir a\u011f gibi \u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Bir bo\u011faz\u0131n t\u0131kanmas\u0131, sevkiyat\u0131n aksamas\u0131, K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, bu a\u011fda onar\u0131lmas\u0131 zor y\u0131rt\u0131klara neden olabiliyor. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k kapitalizmin uzun tarihinde ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in k\u00fcresel kapitalist sistemin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fil i\u00e7inde, onunla i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7erek b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Sava\u015farak de\u011fil, tekno end\u00fcstriyel s\u0131\u00e7ramalarla \u00fcreterek, ticaret yaparak, yollar a\u00e7arak, sermaye ihra\u00e7 ederek   s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu.  ABD ve \u00c7in birbirine muhta\u00e7. Her ikisi de kendi i\u00e7inde k\u0131r\u0131lgan. ABD siyas\u00ee karga\u015faya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015f durumda, \u00c7in\u2019de ilk kez ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan orta s\u0131n\u0131f g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e rejimi sorgulayacak. Tam bir sava\u015f ekonomisi uygulamak, toplumu asker\u00eele\u015fmeye ikna etmek neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z. Do\u011frudan sava\u015fa tutu\u015fmak her iki \u00fclkenin de \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu y\u00fczden Trump, \u00c7in\u2019e asker\u00ee\/siyas\u00ee strateji uzmanlar\u0131yla de\u011fil, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 30 \u015firketinin CEO\u2019suyla gitti.  A\u00e7\u0131k toplant\u0131da \u015ei\u2019ye onlar\u0131 takdim etti, \u201cHepsi bug\u00fcn size ve \u00c7in’e sayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 sunmak i\u00e7in buradalar; ticaret yapmay\u0131 ve i\u015f birli\u011fini d\u00f6rt g\u00f6zle bekliyorlar,\u201d dedi. \u201cL\u00fctfen y\u00fczde y\u00fcz kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olsun, rica ediyorum,\u201d diye ekledi. \u0130lk kez ka\u00e7\u0131k \u015firket patronu gibi de\u011fil, devlet adam\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc, biraz da m\u00fcflis t\u00fcccar gibi yaltakland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015ei ise maskeyi and\u0131ran y\u00fcz\u00fcnden eksik etmedi\u011fi, insan\u0131n asab\u0131n\u0131 bozan Budha tebess\u00fcm\u00fcyle Amerikan halk\u0131na iltifat etti, \u201c\u00c7in’in yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fi ile Amerika’y\u0131 yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fck yapma hedefi birlikte ilerleyebilir,\u201d dedi. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu \u00f6zellikle belirterek, \u201cBa\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmada birbirimize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir ve b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya refah getirebiliriz,\u201d diye ekledi.  Fakat bunun bir \u015fart\u0131 vard\u0131:  \u00c7in ve ABD Tukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015farak b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 ili\u015fkilerinde yeni bir model mi olu\u015fturacakt\u0131, yoksa ABD t\u0131pk\u0131 M\u00d6 5. y\u00fczy\u0131lda Atina\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda korkuya kap\u0131lan Sparta gibi  her iki tarafa da b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131m getiren Peleponnes Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na benzer bir felaketi mi ba\u015flatacakt\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6d\u00fck Trump\u2019\u0131n bu sorunun derinli\u011fini, i\u00e7erimlerini kavrad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcpheli. Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 daha sonra anlatm\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mao Zedung bu sahneyi g\u00f6rseydi ne derdi bilemiyorum fakat Deng \u015eiaoping muhtemelen \u201cD\u00f6rt modernle\u015fme teorisi\u201dnin muhte\u015fem bir ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ABD\u2019nin ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabullenerek korkusunu yenmek zorunda oldu\u011funu, \u00c7in\u2019in ise bilge tavr\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek rakibini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bundan sonra onu bir dizi samimiyet s\u0131nav\u0131na tabi tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hibrit sava\u015flar hedef \u00fclkeleri t\u00fcketti\u011finde sahici bir Yalta ihtimalinin ufukta belirece\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz. \u00c7in\u2019deki bulu\u015fma, \u00f6nceki ABD-\u00c7in bulu\u015fmalar\u0131ndan tamamen farkl\u0131 olarak, kurallar\u0131 olan yeni bir kapitalist d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ilk ad\u0131m\u0131, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 felaketin e\u015fi\u011finden almak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan ilk tangodur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Sevgili vatan\u0131m\u0131za gelecek olursak\u2026  Tarihin ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir kez daha kaderimizi belirleyecek. Tukidides\u2019in, Peleponnes Sava\u015f\u0131 Tarihi<\/em>\u2019nde dedi\u011fi gibi, \u201cG\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcler yapabileceklerini yaparlar, zay\u0131flar katlanmak zorunda kal\u0131rlar.\u201d  Otto von Bismarck da \u015f\u00f6yle demi\u015ftir: \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin politikas\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck devletlerin kaderidir.\u201d  Lord Palmerston\u2019un  1848\u2019de \u0130ngiliz parlamentosunda s\u00f6yledi\u011fi \u015fu s\u00f6zler ise  evrenseldir, b\u00fct\u00fcn zamanlar\u0131 kapsar: \u201cEbedi m\u00fcttefiklerimiz ve s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131m\u0131z yoktur. Ebedi ve s\u00fcrekli olan \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131m\u0131zd\u0131r ve g\u00f6revimiz bu \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 kollamakt\u0131r. \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1920\u2019lerde b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na, d\u00fcveli muazzamaya kar\u015f\u0131 kendi kaderimiz belirledik, bizi yok edemediler, par\u00e7alayamad\u0131lar. Yine yapar\u0131z. Bizim s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 Sykes-Picot cetvelle \u00e7izmedi, millet\u00e7e m\u00fccadele ederek, kan ve demirle kendimizi yoktan var ettik; her alanda muazzam bir tarihsel birikime sahibiz.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bizim sadece i\u00e7 cephe sorunumuz var. Sa\u011flam bir devlet ideolojisine ve kamuculu\u011fa muhtac\u0131z. Siyas\u00ee \u0130sl\u00e2m\u2019\u0131n ve neoliberal iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bu ihtiyac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Asl\u0131nda halk\u0131m\u0131z mill\u00ee \u015fuura, yurtta\u015fl\u0131k bilincine sahiptir, Cumhuriyet de\u011ferlerine, Devrim ilkelerine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r; bu anlamda tamam\u0131 Kemalist\u2019tir. Ancak n\u00fcfusun yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131 bu ger\u00e7e\u011fin fark\u0131nda de\u011fil. Uygulamal\u0131 e\u011fitimle fark\u0131na varmas\u0131 sa\u011flanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Mevcut durumu b\u00f6yle de\u011ferlendirmek zorunday\u0131z. Gecikme olursa, k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmeler bu fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorla, ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za vura vura dayatacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. yalogan@gmail.com <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan Hibrit sava\u015flar hedef \u00fclkeleri t\u00fcketerek sona erdi\u011fi vakit, \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin verili durum \u00fczerinden yeni bir payla\u015f\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131na varaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7 kez yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 hat\u0131rlam\u0131yorum. Anla\u015fmay\u0131 zorlayan en \u00f6nemli sebep iki k\u00fcresel g\u00fcc\u00fcn Ukrayna ve \u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015flardan \u00e7\u0131kan derslerdir. Bu iki sava\u015f, direnen bir \u00fclkeyi konvansiyonel silahlarla i\u015fgal giri\u015fiminin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 maliyetli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Teknoloji … <\/p>\n

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