{"id":1960,"date":"2026-04-12T05:28:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T03:28:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1960"},"modified":"2026-04-12T05:28:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T03:28:12","slug":"kablolar-ve-zincirler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1960","title":{"rendered":"KABLOLAR VE Z\u0130NC\u0130RLER"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u201cMedeniyetler \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 tezini 1993\u2019te yazan Samuel Huntington, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 kisvesine b\u00fcr\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir enayinin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u201cBu gece b\u00fct\u00fcn bir medeniyeti yok edece\u011fim\u201d dedi\u011fini i\u015fitebilseydi, 2008\u2019de ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel finans krizinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remeden girdi\u011fi mezar\u0131nda sevin\u00e7le z\u0131plard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Huntington\u2019un kitab\u0131, asl\u0131nda sosyalist sistemlerin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birlikte tarihin sona erdi\u011fini iddia eden (1992) Francis Fukuyama\u2019ya verilmi\u015f bir cevapt\u0131. Emperyalizme hitap ediyordu. \u201cKayg\u0131lanma,\u201d diyordu, \u201cs\u0131n\u0131f sava\u015f\u0131 ve sosyalizm tehdidi ortadan kalkt\u0131 ama tarih hen\u00fcz sona ermedi, medeniyetler ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrler \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bahane ederek daha \u00e7ok sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r\u0131z.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bahaneler daima ger\u00e7e\u011fi gizlemek i\u00e7in uydurulmu\u015f mazeretlerdir.\u00a0 Beni mazur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcz, \u015fu sebeple sava\u015fmak zorunday\u0131m, denir. Fakat hakikatin tun\u00e7 kanunu de\u011fi\u015fmez: kapitalizm var oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece emperyalizm, emperyalizm var oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece sava\u015flar sona ermeyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fakat bu sefer durum biraz de\u011fi\u015fik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda sa\u011flam bir i\u00e7 cephe kurarak kahramanca direni\u015fi, istikrars\u0131z, g\u00fcvencesiz ve tehlikeli (precarious) bir ate\u015fkese yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Taraflar\u0131n soluklanarak g\u00fc\u00e7 toplayacaklar\u0131 bu zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n uzunca bir ara d\u00f6neme mi (interregnum), yoksa b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini i\u00e7ine \u00e7eken daha geni\u015f bir kara deli\u011fe mi evrilece\u011fini g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Ancak ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131ndan, \u015fimdilik kayd\u0131yla, iki ara sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birincisi, bu sava\u015f k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlad\u0131. K\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7an, I. ve II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen olgular \u015funlard\u0131r: devletlerin iktisad\u00ee alandan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (balonla\u015fma), y\u00fcksek teknolojinin nadir elementlere artan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fcretimin ulusal s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 a\u015farak d\u00fcnya geneline yay\u0131lmas\u0131yla tedarik zincirlerinin ve ileti\u015fim hatlar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici \u00f6nem kazanmas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnya ticaretinin y\u00fczde 80-90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan Panama Kanal\u0131, S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\/Bab\u00fclmentep, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ve Malakka bo\u011fazlar\u0131 ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi Rotalar\u0131 kapat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda veri trafi\u011finin y\u00fczde 95\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan k\u00fcresel denizalt\u0131 internet kablolar\u0131 kesildi\u011fi anda tamamen fel\u00e7 olabilecek kadar k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir d\u00fcnya kapitalizminden s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Neoliberal \u00e7a\u011fda k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin i\u015fleyi\u015fi tedarik zincirlerine ve internet kablolar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131.\u00a0 Zincir koptu\u011fu, kablo kesildi\u011fi, bunlar\u0131n giri\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f istasyonlar\u0131 tahrip edildi\u011fi anda sistem duruyor.\u00a0 Onalt\u0131nc\u0131 y\u00fczy\u0131ldan bu yana kapitalizmin hi\u00e7bir halkas\u0131 bu kadar zay\u0131f olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kriz d\u00f6ng\u00fclerini g\u00f6steren, Marksist teorik iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n kapitalizmin d\u00f6nemsel kriz \u00e7evrimleri i\u00e7in \u015fablon olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kondratiyev dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sava\u015flarda iyice darald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve nihayet \u201cex-\u00f6l\u00fcm\u201d anlam\u0131na gelen d\u00fcz bir \u00e7izgiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne tan\u0131k olabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Farz edin ki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kaslar\u0131yla \u00f6v\u00fcnen, herkesi d\u00f6v\u00fcp ezen bir adam\u0131n beyin h\u00fccreleri aras\u0131ndaki veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 durmu\u015f, hekimlerin \u201ckarotis\u201d dedi\u011fi \u015fah damar\u0131 kesilmi\u015f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elbette bunlar\u0131 zamanla onar\u0131rlar, yeniden ba\u011flarlar fakat uzun s\u00fcre telafi edilemeyecek kadar a\u011f\u0131r bir hasar olu\u015fur; ve b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkelerde siyas\u00ee iktidarlar\u0131n y\u00f6netemedi\u011fi, halk\u0131n ise eskisi gibi y\u00f6netilmek istemedi\u011fi ko\u015fullarda ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir \u201cdevrimci durum\u201d do\u011far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Son iki D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda b\u00f6yle bir tehlike ya da imk\u00e2n yoktu. \u0130ngiltere arada bir Atlantik\u2019ten ge\u00e7en denizalt\u0131 kablolar\u0131n\u0131 keserek istihbarat ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kendisi de zarar g\u00f6recek \u015fekilde aksat\u0131yor, i\u015fgal Avrupa\u2019s\u0131nda insanlar\u0131n telefon etmesini, telgraf \u00e7ekmesini engellemi\u015f oluyordu. Bazen de denizden abluka uygulayarak d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n ticaretini engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Bunu yapmasayd\u0131 belki daha iyi olurdu zira Hitler, \u0130ngiliz ablukas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Yahudiler\u2019i Madagaskar\u2019a yerle\u015ftiremedi. Yerle\u015ftirseydi, tarihin ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015firdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neyse, konuyu da\u011f\u0131tmayal\u0131m\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kinci ara sonu\u00e7, sava\u015f-teknoloji ili\u015fkisinin bug\u00fcne kadar geli\u015ftirilen harp doktrinlerinin neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131, bilinen konvansiyonel silah sistemleriyle birlikte (sahrada tank-top-u\u00e7ak-gemi kombinasyonlar\u0131) ikinci plana itmesidir.  Bundan sonra b\u00fct\u00fcn devletler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli u\u00e7an cisimlerin (f\u00fczeler, dronlar) ve robotik sava\u015f ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n seri \u00fcretimine ge\u00e7ecek; yapay zek\u00e2y\u0131 farkl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7eklerde her asker\u00ee \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya uyarlayan komuta-kontrol sistemleri geli\u015ftirecektir.  Biyolojik, kimyasal m\u00fchimmat ve \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc vir\u00fcslerle y\u00fckl\u00fc u\u00e7an cisimler, 8 milyar\u0131 ge\u00e7en d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunu seyrelterek siyas\u00ee haritalar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek isteyen emperyalist al\u00e7aklar\u0131n hizmetine girecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Merakl\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 1900\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,65 milyar, 1950\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda ise 2,53 milyar oldu\u011funu belirtelim. Yery\u00fcz\u00fcnde an itibariyle k\u0131p\u0131r k\u0131p\u0131r, her y\u00f6ne do\u011fru ak\u0131\u015fkan 8,3 milyar insan var.)\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Teknolojinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u00fcresel siyasette meydana gelen ani de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ve yeni ittifaklar da sava\u015f doktrinlerini ve stratejik planlar\u0131 bir anda alt\u00fcst edebilir. Mesela ge\u00e7en hafta Tayvan\u2019daki ana muhalefet partisi Kuomintang\u2019\u0131n (KMT) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00c7eng Li-vun\u2019un, \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi (\u00c7KP) Genel Sekreteri \u015ei Cinping\u2019i ziyaret ederek    bar\u0131\u015f mesaj\u0131 vermesi (vatan b\u00f6l\u00fcnmez, iki \u00fclke tek medeniyet!) ABD\u2019nin Pasifik sava\u015f\u0131 bahanesine orta vadede etkili olabilecek a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe indirdi.  ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke sava\u015fa i\u015ftahl\u0131 ve hevesli de\u011fil; Kiev, Gazze, Halep, Beyrut ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2lini herkes g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sevgili vatan\u0131m\u0131za gelince\u2026 D\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p mutlaka gelece\u011fimiz yer buras\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dclkemizin sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda olu\u015fan genel siyas\u00ee atmosferi bana neredeyse yar\u0131m as\u0131r \u00f6nce bulundu\u011fum \u00c7ay\u0131rhisar Yedek Subay Okulu\u2019nun e\u011fitim sahas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u00d6\u011frenciler, sar\u0131 s\u0131cakta \u00e7\u0131nlayan B\u00f6l\u00fck Bandosu\u2019nun \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Yedek Subay Mar\u015f\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde engellerden atlay\u0131p z\u0131playarak, \u00e7al\u0131l\u0131klar aras\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fcnerek oraya buraya se\u011firtirken, ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda bulunan \u00dcste\u011fmen, elindeki megafondan y\u00fckselen davud\u00ee sesiyle, \u201cHer yan\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman ku\u015fatm\u0131\u015f, her taraf alevler i\u00e7inde!\u201d diye ba\u011f\u0131rarak ger\u00e7ek bir sava\u015f ortam\u0131 yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran\u2019dan sonra s\u0131ra bize gelecek; ABD NATO\u2019yu feshedecek, sonra bizi d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakarak yeniden kuracak ve \u0130srail\u2019le birle\u015ferek Suriye \u00fczerinden bize sald\u0131racak\u2026 Yok \u00f6yle olmayacak; \u0130srail, Yunanistan ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s, Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de ABD\u2019nin deste\u011fiyle bize taarruz ederken, PKK\/YPG\/PJAK g\u00fcneydo\u011fudan sald\u0131r\u0131ya ge\u00e7erek bizi bir bu\u00e7uk cephede sava\u015fa zorlayacak \u2026 \u015feklinde uzay\u0131p giden, bazen benim de katk\u0131da bulundu\u011fum k\u00e2bus senaryolar\u0131,  s\u0131radan sosyal medya takip\u00e7isinin  akl\u0131na mukayyet olmas\u0131n\u0131 giderek zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fakat belirsiz de olsa Devlet akl\u0131n\u0131n zorlay\u0131c\u0131 ko\u015fullarda tek\u00e2m\u00fcl etti\u011fini g\u00f6steren baz\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015faretler var. Bu i\u015faretlerin en \u00f6nemlisi, MHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Rusya\u2019ya g\u00f6ndererek, \u201cABD-\u0130srail \u015fer koalisyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019le ittifak kurma \u00f6nerisi\u201dni b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya ilan etmesidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Devletin g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen bir kesiminin durumun fark\u0131nda oldu\u011funu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi Trump\u2019\u0131n Saray\u2019a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fantaj ve vesayet tuza\u011f\u0131ndan kurtarmaya, en az\u0131ndan denge politikas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye niyetli oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz. Devlet Bah\u00e7eli\u2019nin yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Prof. Dr. \u0130lyas Topsakal\u2019\u0131n, siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131n \u201cRusya ve \u00c7in\u2019le i\u015fbirli\u011fi program\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (!) benimsemesini, 2028\u2019de MHP\u2019nin AKP\u2019yle ittifak h\u00e2linde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fart\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.  T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Devlet\u2019in en az\u0131ndan bir kesiminin ABD\u2019nin NATO eliyle bizi s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekte oldu\u011fu felaketin fark\u0131na vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizi Trump\u2019\u0131n n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda ebedi dostluklar\u0131n de\u011fil sadece konjonkt\u00fcrel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n var oldu\u011fu bilinciyle, I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00c7ar II. Nikolay\u2019\u0131n Hariciye Naz\u0131r\u0131 Sergey Dimitriyevi\u00e7 Sazanov\u2019un T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131 (\u201cmukaddes gaye\u201d \u0130stanbul!), Trabzon ve Do\u011fu Beyaz\u0131t i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f planlar\u0131n\u0131n Putin\u2019in saray\u0131ndaki \u00e7ekmecede, epeyce tozlanm\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte, muhafaza edildi\u011fini de unutmamak gerekir. May\u0131s 1914\u2019te Talat Pa\u015fa K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019da Sazanov\u2019a ittifak\u00a0 \u00f6nerdi\u011finde, mealen \u201cNe ittifak\u0131, biz \u00fclkenizi payla\u015fmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz,\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeopolitik co\u011frafyaya g\u00f6re \u015fekillenir, co\u011frafya kaderdir.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin sorunu, \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm S\u00fcreci ya da verasete dayal\u0131 sultanl\u0131k rejimi gibi fantezilerden vazge\u00e7ilerek ulusal i\u00e7 cephenin yeniden kurulmas\u0131; b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015flardan uzak durulmas\u0131; ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen sava\u015flar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu kadar ertelenmesi i\u00e7in gerekli asker\u00ee ve diplomatik birikimin ideoloji ve siyaset fark\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeksizin seferber edilmesi; hayat\u0131n her alan\u0131nda harbe haz\u0131rl\u0131k seviyelerinin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesi ve y\u00fckseltilmesidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan \u00a0\u201cMedeniyetler \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 tezini 1993\u2019te yazan Samuel Huntington, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 kisvesine b\u00fcr\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir enayinin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u201cBu gece b\u00fct\u00fcn bir medeniyeti yok edece\u011fim\u201d dedi\u011fini i\u015fitebilseydi, 2008\u2019de ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel finans krizinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remeden girdi\u011fi mezar\u0131nda sevin\u00e7le z\u0131plard\u0131. Huntington\u2019un kitab\u0131, asl\u0131nda sosyalist sistemlerin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birlikte tarihin sona erdi\u011fini iddia eden (1992) Francis Fukuyama\u2019ya verilmi\u015f bir cevapt\u0131. … <\/p>\n

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