{"id":1919,"date":"2026-01-25T07:07:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T05:07:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1919"},"modified":"2026-01-25T07:07:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-25T05:07:31","slug":"verili-durum-ve-secenekler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1919","title":{"rendered":"VER\u0130L\u0130 DURUM VE SE\u00c7ENEKLER"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bug\u00fcnden ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakanlar ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f pek \u00e7ok olay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir sebep sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7inde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcrler. \u015eu sebeplerle \u015f\u00f6yle oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu sonu\u00e7lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarihsel ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fayanlar ise do\u011fru bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir sebep sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi kuramazlar. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek zamanlar\u0131 yoktur. Ayr\u0131ca, Marx\u2019\u0131n dedi\u011fi gibi, insanlar tarihi kendi se\u00e7tikleri ko\u015fullarda yapmazlar; ko\u015fullar verilidir. Verili ko\u015fullar \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi vakit yak\u0131n gelece\u011fi kestirmek zorla\u015f\u0131r.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Verili ko\u015fullar\u0131, baz\u0131 durumlarda, ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z an\u0131n i\u00e7inde de\u011fil, tarihsel olay ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftikten, se\u00e7me ihtimali ortadan kalkt\u0131ktan sonra fark ederiz.   O vakit, d\u00f6nemin ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 en az\u0131ndan do\u011fruya yak\u0131n bi\u00e7imde anlayabilmi\u015f olsayd\u0131m \u00f6yle de\u011fil, \u015f\u00f6yle yapard\u0131m, bunu de\u011fil de \u015funu tercih ederdim diyerek pi\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirtiriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ve bazen tek bir olay verili ko\u015fullardan hi\u00e7bir \u015fey anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ortaya koyar. Bu noktada \u00e7ok yeni ve beklenmedik bir veri ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arz-\u0131 Mev\u2019ud palavras\u0131yla \u0130srail\u2019in SDG\/PKK b\u00f6lgeleriyle kendi \u00fclkesi aras\u0131nda bir   Davud Koridoru a\u00e7\u0131p stratejik derinli\u011fini denize \u00e7\u0131kan bir K\u00fcrt devletiyle geni\u015fletmesini ya da ABD\u2019nin silahland\u0131r\u0131p e\u011fitti\u011fi YPG\/PKK\u2019nin bir sava\u015f krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda topraklar\u0131m\u0131za sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorduk. Fakat Colani\u2019nin motosikletlere ve Toyota kamyonetlere bindirilmi\u015f, kafa kesen tekfirci vah\u015fileri, Arap kabilelerini de pe\u015fine takarak birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde YPG\u2019nin denetimindeki  50 bin kilometre kare topra\u011f\u0131, tar\u0131m arazileri, gelir getiren petrol kuyular\u0131, barajlar\u0131, g\u00fcmr\u00fck kap\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte al\u0131verdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

YPG\/PKK F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin at\u0131\u015f menzili i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7 dar b\u00f6lgeye (enclave) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.    CENTCOM\u2019un izni olmadan savunma amac\u0131yla bile silah kullanamad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2013\u2019te \u201cAlt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum; biz Ortado\u011fu\u2019da art\u0131k bir ger\u00e7e\u011fiz, dengeler sisteminde bir g\u00fcc\u00fcz, bir\u00e7ok \u00e7evre ve g\u00fc\u00e7le ili\u015fkimiz var,\u201d diye b\u00f6b\u00fcrlenen sava\u015f a\u011fas\u0131 Murat Karay\u0131lan, bu kez ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye hitaben \u015f\u00f6yle dedi: \u201cSiz bu halka \u2018m\u00fcttefikiz\u2019 dediniz. \u015eimdi ne oldu da m\u00fcttefikinizi b\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131yla y\u00fcz y\u00fcze b\u0131rak\u0131yorsunuz? Bu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z riyak\u00e2rl\u0131kt\u0131r\u201d (Cumhuriyet<\/em>, 20. 01. 26). Hadi, ya!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki \u015fimdi ne yapacak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sava\u015f a\u011fas\u0131 Karay\u0131lan, PKK\u2019nin asker\u00ee kanad\u0131 HPG\u2019nin komutan\u0131 s\u0131fat\u0131yla, adamlar\u0131na \u201ct\u00fcnel sava\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131n\u201d talimat\u0131 vermi\u015f (Haberglobal<\/em>, 21. 01.26). Haseke b\u00f6lgesinde T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r hatt\u0131 boyunca 113 km. uzunlu\u011funda t\u00fcnel kazm\u0131\u015flar, 50 bin km. kareyi gelir kaynaklar\u0131yla birlikte kaybettikten sonra o t\u00fcnele girip sava\u015facaklarm\u0131\u015f. Peki kime kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015facaklar? Onu s\u00f6ylemiyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

YPG\/PKK\u2019nin inisiyatifi tamamen kaybetti\u011fini, ABD-\u0130ngiltere-\u0130srail\u2019in izin verdi\u011fi yerde ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ancak sava\u015fabilece\u011fini, yakla\u015fan ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran   sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ileriki a\u015famalar\u0131nda istihdam edilmek \u00fczere s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ceplerde k\u0131m\u0131ldamas\u0131na izin verilmeden tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hakikatin y\u00fcz\u00fc so\u011fuktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gizli diplomasi yoluyla ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclkemizin g\u00fcneyindeki yak\u0131n tehlikeyi bertaraf etti\u011fini (ve Saray\u2019\u0131n elbette bunu se\u00e7im ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131na tahvil etmek isteyece\u011fini) s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.  Dengeleri etkileyerek hasm\u0131n sava\u015f kapasitesini azaltmak, dengesini bozmak ve onu ku\u015fatmak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir \u201cdolayl\u0131 tutum\u201ddur. Kimlerin bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli de\u011fildir. Netice \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fakat olay burada bitmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         SDG\u2019nin asker\u00ee olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte \u201cK\u00fcrt Sorunu\u201dnun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Say\u0131n Saray iki yoldan gidiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bir yanda, Suriyeli olmayan SDG\u2019lilerin s\u0131n\u0131r d\u0131\u015f\u0131 edilmesini istiyor. TC vatanda\u015f\u0131 olan militanlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iadesini talep edece\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u00d6te yanda, \u201cmill\u00ee birlik, karde\u015flik vs \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc\u201dyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki silahs\u0131z PKK\u2019yi entegre etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6calan buna \u201cdemokratik entegrasyon\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Suriye\u2019de ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de, kilit terim \u201centegrasyon\u201ddur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Suriye\u2019de silah zoruyla, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcreci\u201dyle entegrasyon sa\u011flanacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in iki hareket tarz\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Birincisinde, T\u00fcrkiye kendi vatanda\u015f\u0131 olan YPG\/PKK unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r, yarg\u0131layacaklar\u0131n\u0131 yarg\u0131lar, geri kalan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131radan yurtta\u015f stat\u00fcs\u00fcnde normal hayat\u0131n ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131r, cezaevindekiler i\u00e7in k\u0131smi af \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r, \u00d6calan yerinde kal\u0131r, DEM\u2019i kapat\u0131r, g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 may\u0131nlarla tahkim eder,  Selef\u00ee ak\u0131mlarla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki benzerlerinin ideolojik ve  \u00f6rg\u00fctsel ge\u00e7i\u015fimini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gerekli tedbirleri al\u0131r ve nihayet anayasas\u0131na \u201cT\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde din\u00ee ve etnik ama\u00e7l\u0131 siyas\u00ee parti ve dernek kurulamaz\u201d \u015feklinde bir madde ekler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u0130kincisinde, T\u00fcrkiye g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f belediyecilikten ba\u015flayarak \u201cdemokratik \u00f6zerlik\u201d yolunu a\u00e7ar, Aynelarap, Kam\u0131\u015fl\u0131, Haseke gibi b\u00f6lgeleri g\u00fcneydo\u011fusuyla birle\u015ftirerek geni\u015fler ve bu yolda arkas\u0131ndan ittirilerek T\u00fcrk, K\u00fcrt (ve belki de Arap) federasyonuna do\u011fru gider ve nihai olarak Dicle-F\u0131rat su havzas\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerin denetimine girmesine yol a\u00e7ar.  S\u00fcrekli \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00fcretecek felaket senaryosu budur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Birinci hareket tarz\u0131 laik demokratik sosyal bir hukuk devletini, Cumhuriyet ilkelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir mill\u00ee h\u00fck\u00fcmeti gerektirir. Saray, ideolojik konumu ve Bat\u0131\u2019ya jeopolitik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle bu hareket tarz\u0131na yabanc\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u0130kinci hareket tarz\u0131, ABD\u2019nin federasyon fikridir. Bir s\u00fcre sonra Trump\u2019\u0131n, dostu Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn Suriye\u2019nin koruyuculu\u011fundan alarak sadece K\u00fcrtlerin koruyuculu\u011funa indirmesi, federasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. Say\u0131n Saray\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrk milletini T\u00fcrk-K\u00fcrt-Arap \u00fcmmetine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme niyet ve giri\u015fimi emperyalizmin b\u00f6lgesel projesiyle uyumludur. Gazze Bar\u0131\u015f Kurulu\u2019na Yahudi i\u015f adamlar\u0131 ve Amerikal\u0131 bakanlarla birlikte kat\u0131lmas\u0131, Say\u0131n Reis\u2019in \u201cd\u00fcnya be\u015ften b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc geri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Trump herkesten b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u0131rsat \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD, T\u00fcrk Ordusu\u2019nun K\u00fcrt b\u00f6lgelerine girmesine ya da Kandil\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irmesine izin vermemi\u015ftir, \u015fimdi de vermeyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Her durumda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6zellikle tam bir ku\u015fatma alt\u0131nda tutulan Aynelarap\u2019ta insani felaketin e\u015fi\u011fine gelen K\u00fcrtlere acilen hekim, ila\u00e7, g\u0131da, giyecek yard\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 gerekir.  \u0130srail askerleri Suriye s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7indeki Hermon da\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcle oynaya kayak yaparken, Kobani\u2019deki K\u00fcrt karde\u015flerimizin a\u00e7l\u0131ktan ve so\u011fuktan \u00f6lmesine izin veremeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         En genelde, en yukar\u0131dan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ABD-\u0130ngiltere\u2019nin birinci planda \u0130ran\u2019a, ikinci planda Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 kuzeyde Azerbaycan, ortada T\u00fcrkiye, g\u00fcneyde Suriye\/Irak olmak \u00fczere yeni bir jeopolitik alan yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu geni\u015f alan\u0131n denetimini \u0130srail\u2019e b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu alanda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya, etnik gruplar\u0131n taleplerine \u015fimdilik izin verilmeyecek. Yakla\u015fan \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kadar tam bir hareketsizlik istiyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Fakat i\u00e7inde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tehlikeli d\u00fcnyada her an her \u015fey olabilir, b\u00fct\u00fcn hesaplar bozulabilir, de\u011fi\u015febilir.  Friedrich Engels\u2019in 1890 y\u0131l\u0131nda dedi\u011fi gibi, \u201cTarih \u00f6yle bir tarzda geli\u015fir ki, niha\u00ee sonu\u00e7 daima pek \u00e7ok bireysel iradenin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar ve her bir irade belirli hayat ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7oklu\u011fu taraf\u0131ndan olu\u015fturulur \u2026 her bireysel irade bir di\u011feri ile engellenir ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u015fey, kimsenin \u00f6nceden tasarlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fey olur.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

yalogan@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          Bug\u00fcnden ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bakanlar ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f pek \u00e7ok olay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir sebep sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7inde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcrler. \u015eu sebeplerle \u015f\u00f6yle oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu sonu\u00e7lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrler. Tarihsel ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fayanlar ise do\u011fru bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir sebep sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi kuramazlar. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek zamanlar\u0131 yoktur. Ayr\u0131ca, Marx\u2019\u0131n dedi\u011fi gibi, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “VER\u0130L\u0130 DURUM VE SE\u00c7ENEKLER”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1919"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1921,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1919\/revisions\/1921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}