{"id":1720,"date":"2024-12-01T11:03:50","date_gmt":"2024-12-01T09:03:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1720"},"modified":"2024-12-01T11:03:50","modified_gmt":"2024-12-01T09:03:50","slug":"soguk-savastan-sicak-savasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1720","title":{"rendered":"SO\u011eUK SAVA\u015eTAN SICAK SAVA\u015eA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         So\u011fuk Sava\u015f 44 y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kabaca 1947-1991 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Kore ve Vietnam sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131; Asya, Latin Amerika ve Afrika\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve i\u00e7 sava\u015flar\u0131 bir yana b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi uzun bir bar\u0131\u015f, istikrar ve kalk\u0131nma d\u00f6nemiydi. Buna Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) d\u00f6nemi de diyebiliriz. Churchill, Roosevelt ve Stalin\u2019in ki\u015fili\u011finde temsil edilen \u00dc\u00e7 B\u00fcy\u00fckler\u2019in kurdu\u011fu sistem yapt\u0131r\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcyle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde otoritesini hissettirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klasik s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik yine bu d\u00f6nemde sona erdi. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 1957\u2019de S\u00fcvey\u015f Krizi\u2019ne ABD ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin ortak m\u00fcdahalesiydi. \u201cS\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d kavram\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1960\u2019larda ulusal kurtulu\u015f hareketlerinin son dalgas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bu d\u00f6nemde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Sovyetler Birli\u011fi versiyonu Do\u011fu Berlin ve Balkanlar\u2019dan Japon Denizi k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131ndaki Vladivostok\u2019a, Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesi ve  Kuzey Kutup Dairesi\u2019nden Karadeniz\u2019e   uzanan, asker\u00ee (Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131) ve ekonomik (Comecon) sistemlere sahip, ideolojik ve siyas\u00ee etkisini b\u00fct\u00fcn k\u0131talara ve \u00fclkelere yayabilen geni\u015f bir emperyal alan\u0131 y\u00f6netti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Kapitalizm bu d\u00f6nemde ehlile\u015fti. Kom\u00fcnizm korkusu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kapitalist \u00fclkelerde \u201csosyal refah devleti,\u201d \u201ctoplumsal kalk\u0131nma,\u201d \u201ciktisad\u00ee planlama\u201d gibi, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn neoliberal kapitalist sisteminde a\u011fza al\u0131nmayan, bilin\u00e7li olarak unutturulan kavramlar\u0131n do\u011fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve ger\u00e7eklik kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Tekil \u00fclkelerde orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 geni\u015fletip g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek sendikal m\u00fccadeleyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya, b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde daha adil olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar.  Hatta kuzey ve g\u00fcney \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki servet farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak, az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki a\u00e7l\u0131k, e\u011fitimsizlik ve sefaletin BM kurumlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla giderilmesi i\u00e7in raporlar haz\u0131rlad\u0131lar (bkz. Brandt Raporlar\u0131), kalk\u0131nma programlar\u0131 \u00f6nerdiler. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7 sefil, e\u011fitimsiz kalabal\u0131k ka\u00e7ak g\u00f6\u00e7men s\u00fcr\u00fclerinin kamplardan kamplara s\u00fcr\u00fcler h\u00e2linde dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7aresiz insanlar\u0131n bo\u011fularak can verdi\u011fi sahneler ya\u015fanmad\u0131.  Her ulus-devlet iyi k\u00f6t\u00fc kendi toplumsal kalk\u0131nma program\u0131na sahipti. Etnik, dinsel ve cinsel haklar hen\u00fcz yurtta\u015f halklar\u0131n\u0131n yerini almam\u0131\u015f, zay\u0131f uluslar\u0131 par\u00e7alama arac\u0131 olarak devreye sokulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler (\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya) 1955\u2019te Bandung Konferans\u0131\u2019yla, Mare\u015fal Tito, Fidel Kastro, Cemal Abd\u00fclnas\u0131r, Bumedyen gibi liderlerin \u00f6nderli\u011finde Ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131zlar Hareketi\u2019ni ba\u015flatt\u0131. D\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 55\u2019ini temsil ediyorlard\u0131. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn BRICS\u2019i, hi\u00e7 yoktan iyidir ama, siyas\u00ee a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ve etki bak\u0131m\u0131ndan Ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131zlar Hareketi\u2019nin soluk bir kopyas\u0131 bile olamaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u0130ktisadi ve toplumsal kalk\u0131nma nas\u0131l olacakt\u0131? Kapitalist yoldan m\u0131, yoksa sosyalist devrimle mi? Hangi a\u015famalardan ge\u00e7ilecekti? Kapitalizm yeni bir evreye mi ge\u00e7mi\u015fti, yoksa \u201cyeni s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik\u201d d\u00fcnya devrimini mi gerektiriyordu? \u0130nsanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemindeki temel meselesi bunlard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Tuhaf olan \u015fudur ki bug\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir mesele yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         N\u00fckleer sava\u015f felaketinin en yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir \u00f6nceki krizde (1962) insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n zihin d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyay\u0131 y\u00f6netenlerin bilin\u00e7 d\u00fczeyi \u00e7ok farkl\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya liderlerinin \u00e7abas\u0131yla, esas olarak J.F. Kennedy ve Nikita Huru\u015fov\u2019un basireti ve siyas\u00ee ileti\u015fimi sayesinde n\u00fckleer felaketin e\u015fi\u011finden d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc. O s\u0131rada Avrupa\u2019da Charles de Gaulle 5. Cumhuriyet\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndayd\u0131, Konrad Adenauer Nazi ideolojisinden ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f modern demokratik Almanya\u2019y\u0131 kuruyordu. Hiro\u015fima ve Nagazaki insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belle\u011finde hen\u00fcz canl\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya liderlerinin ortak \u00f6zelli\u011fi II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn evrelerini bizzat ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ya da yak\u0131ndan izlemi\u015f olmalar\u0131yd\u0131. Sava\u015f\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu biliyorlard\u0131. BM\u2019nin silahs\u0131zlanma ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 yollardan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc ilkelerine resm\u00ee s\u00f6ylem d\u00fczeyinde ba\u011fl\u0131yd\u0131lar. J. F. Kennedy Pasifik Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na gemi komutan\u0131 olarak kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada yaralanm\u0131\u015f bir sava\u015f kahraman\u0131yd\u0131. Huru\u015fov, Stalingrad Direni\u015fi\u2019nin ikinci b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne Stalin\u2019in \u00f6zel komiseri olarak komuta etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bu adamlar\u0131n, s\u00f6z gelimi, Putin gibi \u201cOre\u015fnik\u2019i sald\u0131m m\u0131 ne  Londra ne  Paris kal\u0131r\u201d mealinde konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ya da NATO Asker\u00ee Komite Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Rob Bauer gibi \u201c\u00d6nleyici vuru\u015f hakk\u0131m\u0131zd\u0131r, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 sava\u015f senaryosuna uysun\u201d diye talimat vermeleri beklenmezdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         D\u00fcnyay\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayacak bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftiren, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel krize yol a\u00e7an iki olay oldu. Birincisi SSCB\u2019nin i\u00e7e do\u011fru \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcp da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, Do\u011fu Avrupa, Balt\u0131k ve Balkanlar\u2019dan \u00e7ekilerek ileri savunma hatlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi, NATO\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131lan bo\u015fluklar\u0131 h\u0131zla doldurmas\u0131; ikincisi ise \u00c7in\u2019in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi y\u00f6netiminde kapitalist yoldan giderek ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131 muazzam iktisad\u00ee b\u00fcy\u00fcmedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birincisi Rusya\u2019n\u0131n direni\u015fine yol a\u00e7arak insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 n\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine getirdi, ikincisi ise k\u00fcresel kaynaklar\u0131n ve ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yine birincisi, o zamana kadar sosyalizm ve Marksizm ad\u0131na yap\u0131lan her \u015feyin sorgulanmas\u0131na, muazzam bir sol sosyalist fikirler, teoriler k\u00fclliyat\u0131n\u0131n mevcut ko\u015fullara yabanc\u0131la\u015farak tarihe havale edilmesine; ikincisi ise sosyalizm kavram\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckendine \u00f6zg\u00fc\u201d bir de\u011fi\u015fime u\u011frayarak kapitalizmle harmanlanmas\u0131na, devlet destekli karma ekonominin sosyalizm olarak pazarlanmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya 1991\u2019de stratejik olarak kaybetti. Y\u0131llar sonra Putin buna \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi\u201d diyecekti. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 her a\u015famada Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu felaketi telafi ederek yeniden bir s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 mertebesine ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Rusya, ordusu olmayan Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal edemedi, i\u015fgal etti\u011fi do\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerine verdi\u011fi stat\u00fcy\u00fc Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelere kabul ettiremedi, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fman cephenin geni\u015flemesine ve Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 bir t\u00fcr \u201cyan\u0131k toprak\u201d ya da at\u0131\u015f poligonu olarak kullanmas\u0131na engel olamad\u0131, Karadeniz\u2019de varl\u0131k g\u00f6steremedi, Rus halk\u0131n\u0131 II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndaki ruhla \u201cAnavatan Savunmas\u0131\u201dna ikna edemedi. Rus ordusunun disiplinsiz oldu\u011fu (Prigojin olay\u0131), komuta kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn, sahrada elektronik ileti\u015fim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu, t\u0131pk\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131lar\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ithal paral\u0131 asker kullanmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadece n\u00fckleer silah ve do\u011fal gazla s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olunamayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n neoliberal ekonomisi, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ambargo ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkenin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir jeopolitik felakete u\u011framas\u0131 h\u00e2linde (birincisi 1918\u2019de  Brest Litovsk Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131, ikincisi 1991\u2019de Belovej Antla\u015fmas\u0131) y\u00fcz\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc n\u00fcfusuna oranla az olan \u00c7in\u2019in Kazakistan Sibirya y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girmesi  neredeyse tarihsel bir zorunluluk olarak ufukta belirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Rusya   \u00e7ok say\u0131da matadorun boynuzlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131na f\u0131rsat vermeyerek uzaktan karg\u0131larla d\u00fcrt\u00fcp yaralad\u0131\u011f\u0131, kan kaybederek zay\u0131f d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bo\u011fay\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor. N\u00fckleer sava\u015f tehdidiyle s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olunamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in \u015fimdilik sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyas\u00ee\/diplomatik deste\u011fin, zay\u0131flayarak topun a\u011fz\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fclen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fen Belarus\u2019un ve asker\u00ee destek veren Kuzey Kore\u2019nin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ittifak yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerikan emperyalizminin So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla geriledi\u011fi, dolar\u0131n belirleyici vasf\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmeye y\u00fcz tuttu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00d6yle olmasayd\u0131 d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamazd\u0131. Emperyalizm de entropi yasas\u0131na t\u00e2bidir. Kapitalizm var olduk\u00e7a bir emperyalizm geriler, bir di\u011feri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. \u00d6nemli olan gerilemenin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi, o s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde hangi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fidir. Oswald Spengler\u2019in 1918\u2019de yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cBat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d kitab\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131ran tezler geli\u015ftirmek, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n durduk yerde mahv\u0131 peri\u015fan oldu\u011funu, Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in kapitalizm i\u00e7inde yeni bir sistem kurarak insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurtaraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmek g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00fctopyalar\u0131ndan biridir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya silah te\u015fhir ederek d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 korkutmaya, asl\u0131nda korkusunu bast\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.  Fakat Ore\u015fnik ya da Sarmat f\u00fczeleriyle \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni in\u015fa etmek, k\u00fcresel sistem kurmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Asl\u0131nda bu silahlar\u0131 kullanmak da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u00d6nleyici vuru\u015f\u201d (preemtive strike) kavram\u0131 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra George W. Bush taraf\u0131ndan konvansiyonel sald\u0131r\u0131lar i\u00e7in kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Ter\u00f6r bize gelmeden biz ter\u00f6rist ilan etti\u011fimiz devletleri imha ederiz dediler.  \u201c\u00d6nleyici vuru\u015f\u201d asl\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 n\u00fckleer silahlanma ba\u011flam\u0131nda geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f bir kavramd\u0131. Kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 alg\u0131lay\u0131p \u00f6yle bir \u00f6nleyici vuru\u015f yap\u0131yorsunuz ki hasm\u0131n\u0131zda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verecek mecal kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu doktrinin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz. Bir taraf di\u011ferini imha ettikten sonra, imha olan taraf\u0131n otomatik misilleme sistemiyle sald\u0131rgan taraf\u0131 imha etmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lan bir \u201cDead Hand\u201d (\u00d6l\u00fc El) sisteminin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u0131talararas\u0131 topyek\u00fbn n\u00fckleer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, kaza, yanl\u0131\u015f anlama ya da delilik (en b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k) gibi durumlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda imk\u00e2ns\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bir taraf\u0131n karasal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u00fckleer silahlarla ortadan kald\u0131rabiliyorsunuz fakat yeri belli olmayan birka\u00e7 n\u00fckleer d\u00fc\u015fman denizalt\u0131s\u0131 sizi buharla\u015ft\u0131rarak \u00f6teki tarafa havale edebiliyor. \u0130nsanl\u0131k bu sa\u00e7mal\u0131ktan kurtulamazsa Mad Max filmleri hakikat olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla III. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131, hibrit teknikler, ku\u015fatma\/ \u00e7evreleme (containment) taktikleri, liderleri sat\u0131n alma\/ayartma manevralar\u0131yla devam edece\u011fini, \u015fiddetli konvansiyonel sava\u015flar\u0131n Kore yar\u0131madas\u0131, Tayvan ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da olabilece\u011fini, bu b\u00f6lgelerde siyas\u00ee haritalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini, sonunda ABD ve \u00c7in \u00f6nderli\u011finde yeni bir BM d\u00fczeninin kurulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n imha edilece\u011fini, k\u00fcresel kapitalizmin dijital evreye ge\u00e7ece\u011fini ve bunun yeni m\u00fccadele bi\u00e7imleri yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek \u015fimdilik kayd\u0131yla akla uygun geliyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ibret al\u0131nacak yeni derslerden ge\u00e7ece\u011fini, kitlelere yay\u0131lma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan yeni fikirlere, \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme ve m\u00fccadele bi\u00e7imlerine, b\u00fcy\u00fck davalara ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 01. 12. 2024 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          So\u011fuk Sava\u015f 44 y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kabaca 1947-1991 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Kore ve Vietnam sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131; Asya, Latin Amerika ve Afrika\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve i\u00e7 sava\u015flar\u0131 bir yana b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi uzun bir bar\u0131\u015f, istikrar ve kalk\u0131nma d\u00f6nemiydi. Buna Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) d\u00f6nemi de diyebiliriz. Churchill, Roosevelt ve Stalin\u2019in ki\u015fili\u011finde temsil edilen \u00dc\u00e7 B\u00fcy\u00fckler\u2019in kurdu\u011fu sistem … <\/p>\n

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