Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Modern zamanlarda devletler sonunu hesap etmeden yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n etkisiyle sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015flerdir. Bizzat yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 siyas\u00ee ve \/ ya da iktisad\u00ee krizlerin bask\u0131s\u0131yla zorlam\u0131\u015flar ve ilk top ate\u015flendi\u011finde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 asla \u00f6ng\u00f6rememi\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1891\u2019de Rusya ticaret alan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130pek Yolu gibi, fakat ters y\u00f6nde do\u011fuya do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, Trans-Sibirya demiryolunu in\u015fa ederek Japonya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc dikti\u011fi Kore ve Man\u00e7urya\u2019ya uzand\u0131. 1905 Rus-Japon sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 b\u00f6ylece olu\u015ftu. Fakat sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyen olay, Yalu ve T\u00fcmen nehirlerinden Ruslar\u0131n kereste nakliyat\u0131 yapmalar\u0131na bozulan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Port Arthur ve \u00c7emulpo limanlar\u0131ndaki Rus gemilerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7arl\u0131k Rusyas\u0131 sava\u015fta a\u011f\u0131r bir yenilgiye u\u011frad\u0131, bir daha da ifl\u00e2h olmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Otto von Bismarck\u2019\u0131n 1871\u2019de Almanya\u2019y\u0131 birle\u015ftirmesi ve Alsace-Lorraine\u2019i ilhak etmesi, daha sonra Kayzer II. Wilhelm\u2019in bir denge adam\u0131 olan Bismarck\u2019\u0131 azlederek (1890) bir s\u00f6m\u00fcrgecilik program\u0131 ilan edip donanma in\u015fas\u0131na giri\u015fmesi, I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Fakat sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyen kur\u015funlar, Saraybosna\u2019da S\u0131rp Princip\u2019in Ar\u015fid\u00fck Franz Ferdinand ile kar\u0131s\u0131na do\u011frulttu\u011fu tabancadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (1914). B\u00f6lge Slavlar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fme ihtimali her t\u00fcrl\u00fc etnik gruptan olu\u015fan Avusturya-Macaristan \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun kendi ak\u0131betini g\u00f6rmesine ve S\u0131rbistan\u2019a sald\u0131rmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ruslar, Slav karde\u015flerinin ezilmesine izin veremezlerdi. \u0130ngiltere ise Almanya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131taya h\u00e2kim olmas\u0131ndan, kendi s\u00f6m\u00fcrgelerine g\u00f6z dikmesinden korkuyordu. Zincirleme tepkilerle birbirlerine girdiler. Buna birinci payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 dedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 sona erdiren Versailles Antla\u015fmas\u0131, II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Hitler, Polonya\u2019y\u0131 Stalin\u2019le payla\u015f\u0131rken (1939) \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ses \u00e7\u0131karmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Haks\u0131z say\u0131lmazd\u0131. O zamana kadar Avusturya\u2019y\u0131 ilhak etmi\u015f, Sudeten Almanlar\u0131n\u0131 kurtarma bahanesiyle \u00c7ekoslovakya\u2019y\u0131 yutmu\u015ftu. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar olurken, Fransa sadece m\u0131r\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131n etmi\u015f, \u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Chamberlain ise Hitler\u2019le M\u00fcnih\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmay\u0131 (1938) sonsuz bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n belgesi olarak y\u00fcceltmi\u015fti. Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere Almanya\u2019ya sava\u015f ilan etti\u011finde Hitler \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131 ve sava\u015f makinesini durduramad\u0131. Bu olaya ikinci payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 dedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nazi olmayan profesyonel askerlerin, \u00f6zellikle Barbarossa Harek\u00e2t\u0131\u2019ndan (1941) hemen \u00f6nce General Walter Warlimont\u2019un Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk cephede (\u0130ngiltere-ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 Bat\u0131\u2019da ve Kuzey Afrika\u2019da, Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011fuda ve bu\u00e7uk olarak Balkanlar\u2019da) sava\u015fmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde kesinlikle yenilgiye u\u011frayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin kapsaml\u0131 raporunu F\u00fchrer \u00f6fkeyle y\u0131rt\u0131p par\u00e7alad\u0131. Sava\u015ftan sonra Hitler\u2019in Alman di\u015f hekimi taraf\u0131ndan te\u015fhis edilen yanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7ene kemi\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde KGB ar\u015fivlerinde yer alan bir kutunun i\u00e7inde muhafaza ediliyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Emin olun, sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sava\u015flar\u0131n zincirleme etki yaratarak b\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015flara do\u011fru durdurulamaz bir h\u0131zla geli\u015fmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fen bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n sona ermesiyle birlikte, NATO\u2019nun Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019ya do\u011fru geni\u015flemesi ve Bat\u0131 Asya\u2019daki ulus-devletlere sald\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in kapitalizme ge\u00e7mesi; birincisinin petrol gelirleri sayesinde h\u0131zla silahlanmas\u0131; ikincisinin, d\u00fcnya ticaretinde inisiyatifi ele ge\u00e7irerek bat\u0131ya do\u011fru yay\u0131lmas\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde olu\u015fan b\u00fct\u00fcn dengeleri bozdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu sekiz milyara yakla\u015f\u0131rken enerji ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6nceki \u00e7a\u011flarda g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131; k\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenleyen sistemler zay\u0131flad\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 hukuk kurallar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00fcn BM S\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri anlam\u0131n\u0131 ve ge\u00e7erli\u011fini kaybetti. Emperyalist kapitalist \u00fclkeler enerjiyi ve enerji iletim yollar\u0131n\u0131, su ve g\u0131da kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in iti\u015fmeye, vek\u00e2leten sava\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Buna \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 diyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 olu\u015ftu ve bu ko\u015fullar h\u0131zla derinle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7rama noktas\u0131yd\u0131; Balt\u0131k Devletleri\u2019nin topluca NATO\u2019ya ge\u00e7mesinden (1999-2004), Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Kaliningrad F\u00fcze \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc (b\u00fct\u00fcn Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 vurabilecek) aktif h\u00e2le getirmesinden (2011), Malaka bo\u011faz\u0131 ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 manevralar\u0131na kadar pek \u00e7ok geli\u015fme topyek\u00fbn sava\u015f\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 olgunla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Fakat n\u00fckleer bir sava\u015f\u0131n kazanan\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bug\u00fcne kadar hi\u00e7bir olay topyek\u00fbn sava\u015f\u0131 tetikleyemedi. Kimse namluya mermi s\u00fcrmeye cesaret edemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in tetik bo\u015fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ne var ki ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00fcnya sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00f6ncesinde ya\u015fananlardan farkl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fcnya liderlerinin neredeyse her g\u00fcn sava\u015f ilan ettikleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mesela Trump, Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleyman\u00ee krizinden sonra b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n nefesini tutarak bekledi\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131na, \u201cG\u00fcnayd\u0131n\u201d demeden \u00f6nce, \u015fu s\u00f6zle ba\u015flad\u0131: \u201cABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu\u011fum s\u00fcrece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmesine asla izin verilmeyecektir.\u201d Bu bir sava\u015f ilan\u0131d\u0131r. Yani diyor ki sonunda ABD-\u0130srail, NATO\u2019yu da pe\u015finden s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek mutlaka \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6kertecek, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne h\u00e2kim olacak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131na oturarak petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 kontrol edecek, Pakistan\u2019\u0131n Gwadar Liman\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ku\u015fatarak \u00c7in\u2019in bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kacak, oradan Kafkaslara do\u011fru uzanarak Rusya\u2019y\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin ise neredeyse iki g\u00fcnde bir sava\u015f ilan ediyor. Daha ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn mealen \u015f\u00f6yle dedi: \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerini vurabilecek, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn hava savunma sistemlerini etkisiz b\u0131rakan k\u0131talararas\u0131 n\u00fckleer bir f\u00fcze \u00fcrettik.\u201d Bravo! Yani diyor ki NATO\u2019yu burnumun dibine bile getirsen, \u015fahane f\u00fczelerimin tehdidi alt\u0131nda seni hareketsiz b\u0131rakarak sonunda Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 geri alaca\u011f\u0131m ve Balt\u0131k denizine do\u011fru ilerleyece\u011fim (Bizden, mesela \u0130stanbul Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ve Trabzon Liman\u0131\u2019ndan uzak, cehenneme kaz\u0131k!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u015ei Cimping\u2019in \u015fahs\u0131nda \u201cki\u015fiye tapma k\u00fclt\u00fc\u201dn\u00fc canland\u0131ran \u00c7in ise her zamanki sessiz ve derinden tutumuyla kapitalizmin kalelerini i\u00e7ten fethederek s\u00f6ylemini ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131yla, her \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada bir m\u00fcttefik bulma \u00e7abas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yol g\u00f6rmemi\u015f, tarihsel ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel derinli\u011fi olmayan fakat d\u00fcnyay\u0131 y\u00f6neten bu adamlar\u0131 Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin, Mao gibi adamlarla k\u0131yaslamak insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda karamsarl\u0131k yarat\u0131r. D\u00fcnya maalesef eski bir otel ve e\u011flence sekt\u00f6r\u00fc patronunun, eski bir Rus casusunun ve Mao\u2019nun kapitalist versiyonunun alaca\u011f\u0131 kararlara kald\u0131. Birincisi, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kapitalist i\u015fletme gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor (nitekim dedesi de genelev i\u015fletiyormu\u015f); ikincisi, Rambo ayaklar\u0131nda silah feti\u015fizmine kap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, f\u00fczeleriyle satran\u00e7 oynuyor; \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, art\u0131kde\u011fer s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fcyle elde edilmi\u015f muazzam bir sermayenin \u00fczerine k\u0131z\u0131l bayrak dikmi\u015f, d\u00fcnya ticaretini \u00fclkelerin altyap\u0131s\u0131yla birlikte ele ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu adamlar\u0131n insanl\u0131\u011fa katabilecekleri hi\u00e7bir de\u011fer yok. Bunlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 ve k\u00e2r elde etmekten ba\u015fka bir kayg\u0131lar\u0131 da yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
B\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015flardan sonra uluslararas\u0131 bir sistem, bir t\u00fcr uluslararas\u0131 hukuk d\u00fczeni olu\u015fturma \u00e7abas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Otuz Y\u0131l Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019ndan sonra Westfalya Antla\u015fmas\u0131 (1648), Napoleon Sava\u015flar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kongre D\u00fczeni (Viyana Kongresi, 1815), I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra Milletler Cemiyeti (1920), II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler D\u00fczeni (1945).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn temel sorusu \u015fudur: bu adamlar bunca n\u00fckleer f\u00fczeyi kullanmayacaklarsa nerelerine tatbik edecekler? Ya da \u015f\u00f6yle soral\u0131m: yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni, n\u00fckleer sava\u015f felaketine yol a\u00e7abilecek topyek\u00fbn bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan m\u0131, yoksa b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in mi kurulacak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130kinci soru beraberinde bir ba\u015fka soruyu getiriyor: bu adamlar k\u00e2r ve g\u00fc\u00e7 edinme h\u0131rslar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l dizginleyecekler?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sonuncu sorunun tek bir cevab\u0131 var: emperyalist \u00fclkeler asker\u00ee ve jeostratejik olarak birbirlerini ku\u015fat\u0131rlarken, vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 iyice azd\u0131r\u0131p ter\u00f6r\u00fc siyas\u00ee bir enstr\u00fcman olarak kullan\u0131rlarken can\u0131 yanan d\u00fcnya halklar\u0131 sokaklara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p neoliberal kapitalizme ve emperyalizme kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele edecekler, \u00f6rg\u00fctlenerek kendi devletlerini ku\u015fatacaklar, silahs\u0131zlanmay\u0131 ve yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenini onlara zorla kabul ettirecekler ya da mevcut devletleri y\u0131k\u0131p, yerine yeni devletler kuracaklar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kim ne derse desin, ba\u015fta sosyalizm olmak \u00fczere b\u00fct\u00fcn antikapitalist toplumsal d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler 19. ve 20. y\u00fczy\u0131lda s\u0131radan insan\u0131 d\u00fcnya sahnesine bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Emperyalizme kar\u015f\u0131 ulusal kurtulu\u015f m\u00fccadeleleri de s\u0131radan insana, kazan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f haklar\u0131 olan bir yurtta\u015f kimli\u011fi kazand\u0131rarak ayn\u0131 \u015feyi yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Neredeyse iki y\u00fcz y\u0131l boyunca hi\u00e7bir devlet s\u0131radan insanlar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmezlikten gelemedi. B\u00fct\u00fcn o toplumsal kalk\u0131nma programlar\u0131, sosyal kazan\u0131mlar, refah devleti uygulamalar\u0131 hep o g\u00fc\u00e7 sayesinde, s\u0131radan insan\u0131n \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc m\u00fccadelesiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bu g\u00fcc\u00fc umursayan yok. \u015eirketle\u015fmi\u015f devlet ve devletle\u015fmi\u015f \u015firket s\u0131radan insan\u0131 k\u00f6lele\u015ftirmeye, aptalla\u015ft\u0131rmaya, \u00fcmmetle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ya bu insan bu kez b\u00fct\u00fcn alt ve orta s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 da toplayarak geri gelecek, etnik ve din\u00ee kimli\u011finden soyunarak yurtta\u015f kimli\u011fi edinecek ya da\u00a0 d\u00fcnya insan t\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131rt\u0131ndan atacak ve \u00a0olanca ihti\u015fam\u0131yla canlanarak hi\u00e7bir \u015fey olmam\u0131\u015f gibi yoluna devam edecek. Bu yeni bir fikir de\u011fil, elbette. Polonya k\u00f6kenli Alman\u00a0 kom\u00fcnist Rosa Luxemburg\u00a0\u00a0 bunu 1915\u2019te s\u00f6ylemi\u015f: \u201cYa sosyalizme ge\u00e7i\u015f ya da barbarl\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.\u201d Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 10. 01. 2020<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yavuz Alogan Modern zamanlarda devletler sonunu hesap etmeden yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n etkisiyle sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015flerdir. Bizzat yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 siyas\u00ee ve \/ ya da iktisad\u00ee krizlerin bask\u0131s\u0131yla zorlam\u0131\u015flar ve ilk top ate\u015flendi\u011finde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 asla \u00f6ng\u00f6rememi\u015flerdir. 1891\u2019de Rusya ticaret alan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130pek Yolu gibi, fakat ters y\u00f6nde do\u011fuya do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, Trans-Sibirya demiryolunu in\u015fa ederek … <\/p>\n