{"id":1592,"date":"2024-03-31T10:04:39","date_gmt":"2024-03-31T08:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1592"},"modified":"2024-03-31T10:04:39","modified_gmt":"2024-03-31T08:04:39","slug":"rusya-bati-ve-turkiye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1592","title":{"rendered":"RUSYA, BATI VE T\u00dcRK\u0130YE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rus \u00c7ar\u0131 \u0130van Vasilyevi\u00e7 (M\u00fcthi\u015f \u0130van) i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Opri\u00e7nina\u2019y\u0131 1565 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurdu. Amerikan Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Bildirgesi\u2019ne (1776), yani ABD\u2019nin kurulu\u015funa daha 211 y\u0131l vard\u0131. Siyahlar giyinip siyah atlarla gezen, i\u015faret olarak k\u00f6pek kafatas\u0131 ve s\u00fcp\u00fcrge ta\u015f\u0131yan gizli polis te\u015fkilat\u0131, \u201cCehennem Karanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ad\u0131yla an\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u00c7ar II. Aleksandr \u00f6zel g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Ohrana\u2019y\u0131 1866\u2019da kurdu. Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n, Nazilerden devrald\u0131klar\u0131 ar\u015fiv ve istihbarat alt yap\u0131s\u0131yla (Gehlen \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc) CIA\u2019y\u0131 kurmalar\u0131na (1947) daha 81 y\u0131l vard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bol\u015fevikler bu derin istihbarat gelene\u011fini devrald\u0131lar. Ekim Devrimi\u2019nden sonra \u00c7EKA, GPU, OGPU, MVD, NKVD, KGB gibi i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f g\u00fcvenlik ve istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fctleri kurdular. \u0130\u00e7 istihbarat, kabaca 1926\u2019da ba\u015flayan Stalin d\u00f6neminden 1991\u2019de Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na kadar \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ku\u015f u\u00e7urmad\u0131, her \u015feyi, herkesi denetledi. Sovyet istihbarat\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn kom\u00fcnist partilerini ayn\u0131 zamanda casus \u00f6rg\u00fctleri olarak kulland\u0131, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu, Manhattan Projesi\u2019ne ajan s\u0131zd\u0131rarak (George Koval, kod ad\u0131 \u201cDelmar\u201d) atom bombas\u0131 imalat\u0131yla ilgili bilgilere ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         KGB ajan\u0131 olarak 16 y\u0131l casusluk yapan, Yarbay r\u00fctbesiyle te\u015fkilattan ayr\u0131lan Putin 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda bu kez kapitalist oligarklar\u0131n Rusyas\u0131nda iktidara geldi\u011finde, 1995\u2019te kurulan Federal G\u00fcvenlik Servisi\u2019ni (FSB) devrald\u0131.  Tro\u00e7ki\u2019nin 1918\u2019de kurdu\u011fu  Gru (Asker\u00ee \u0130stihbarat Servisi) oldu\u011fu gibi kald\u0131.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bu kadar k\u00f6kl\u00fc ve tecr\u00fcbeli bir g\u00fcvenlik\/istihbarat a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda \u00fclkenin merkezinde pervas\u0131zca yap\u0131lan suikast ve sabotajlar\u0131, Moskova\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen konser salonu katliam\u0131n\u0131, masum yurtta\u015flar\u0131n kur\u015funlan\u0131p bo\u011fazlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyememesi ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir zaaft\u0131r. Utan\u00e7 verici bir zaaft\u0131r!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Burada \u201chibrit sava\u015f\u201d ya da 4. Nesil Sava\u015f konseptiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz. Rusya g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde her yerin sava\u015f alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu, sava\u015f ile bar\u0131\u015f aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n belirsizle\u015fti\u011fini, silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerin I.ve II. d\u00fcnya sava\u015flar\u0131ndaki gibi klasik tarzda kullan\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, desteklenen de\u011fil destekleyen bir unsura d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, silahl\u0131 militanlardan olu\u015fan \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin, siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ve enformasyonun \u00f6nem kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara yapay zek\u00e2, yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bilgi, medya manip\u00fclasyonlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan 5. Nesil Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n eklendi\u011fini elbette biliyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Genel Kurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Valeri Gerasimov\u2019un   2013\u2019te Rus Asker\u00ee Bilim Akademisi\u2019nde a\u00e7\u0131klanan hibrit sava\u015f doktrini (Gerasimov Doktrini) 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l sava\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin kapsaml\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirme i\u00e7eriyordu. Rusya fazla kaynak (ekonomik ve asker\u00ee) kullanmadan bu doktrin sayesinde G\u00fcney Osetya ile Abhazya\u2019y\u0131 G\u00fcrcistan\u2019dan (2008), K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019dan (2014) almay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131, Donbas b\u00f6lgesinde etkili oldu ve DEA\u015e\u2019la m\u00fccadele bahanesiyle Suriye\u2019ye yerle\u015fti (2015).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         2022\u2019de Rusya Hibrit Sava\u015f taktiklerini b\u0131rakt\u0131, Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 klasik\/konvansiyonel y\u00f6ntemlerle i\u015fgal etmeyi denedi. \u0130\u015fgal giri\u015fimi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olunca, \u00fclkenin do\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerini ilhak ve tahkim ederek savunmaya \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fakat bu kez kendisi Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Hibrit Sava\u015f taktiklerine hedef oldu, \u00a0NATO\u2019nun stratejik ku\u015fatmas\u0131 daha da geni\u015fledi (ters etki!). \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n emperyalist NATO ittifak\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131\u00a0 Petersburg\u2019a bat\u0131dan yakla\u015fma istikametindeki engeli, tarafs\u0131z Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tampon b\u00f6lgeyi aradan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; Rusya\u2019y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesine 1300 km. boyunca asker\u00ee y\u0131\u011f\u0131nak yapmaya zorlad\u0131; Kola yar\u0131madas\u0131n\u0131, n\u00fckleer balistik Rus f\u00fczelerinin bulundu\u011fu Murmansk deniz \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7evreledi; Ruslar\u0131n Arktik b\u00f6lgeye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; NATO\u2019nun Barendt Denizi\u2019ni kapamas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve Kaliningrad F\u00fcze \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kesti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekim 2015\u2019te Hazar Denizi\u2019ndeki d\u00f6rt Rus sava\u015f gemisinden f\u0131rlat\u0131lan 26 f\u00fcze 1500 km. giderek Suriye\u2019deki 11 ayr\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D hedefini vurdu. Fakat bu prestijli asker\u00ee hamlenin arkas\u0131 gelmedi. Karadeniz\u2019de Ukrayna (yani NATO), olas\u0131 Odessa i\u015fgaline destek vermek ve Transdinyester\u2019i korumak i\u00e7in Karadeniz\u2019in bat\u0131s\u0131nda seyreden 80 Rus sava\u015f gemisinin 35\u2019ini saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131, Amiral gemisi Moskova\u2019y\u0131 bat\u0131rd\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Rus sava\u015f gemileri do\u011fuya, Novorossisk\u2019e \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO, Dedea\u011fa\u00e7\u2019ta konu\u015fland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ordunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Romanya\u2019da T\u00fcrk F-16 u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n hava karakol g\u00f6revi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck asker\u00ee \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc kurmaya giri\u015fti. Bu arada ABD sinsice T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tarafs\u0131z olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriden \u00e7\u00f6kertmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi Ukrayna\u2019daki ordular\u0131n ana tedarik\u00e7isine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in Savunma Sanayi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nda NATO M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kurma teklifini Saray\u2019a kabul ettirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO-ABD\u2019nin nihai amac\u0131 Montr\u00f6\u2019y\u00fc delmek, Karadeniz\u2019de h\u00e2kimiyet kurarak Rusya\u2019y\u0131 karaya hapsetmek. T\u00fcrk savunma sanayiini ve ordusunu bu ama\u00e7la kullanacak. \u00a0May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Say\u0131n Reis\u2019in Oval Ofis\u2019te huzura \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla birlikte s\u00fcrecin tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal edip Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nelmesinin ya da Ukrayna\u2019daki NATO kuvvetlerinin ilhak edilen b\u00f6lgeleri ve K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 kara sava\u015f\u0131yla geri almas\u0131n\u0131n ya da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7lerine do\u011fru ilerlemesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son aylarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Konvansiyonel sava\u015f kilitlendi. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 fakat b\u00fct\u00fcn NATO \u00fclkelerinin Ukrayna \u00fczerinden Rusya\u2019ya her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 serbest.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 4. ve 5. Nesil Sava\u015f y\u00f6ntemleriyle Rusya\u2019y\u0131 y\u0131pratarak i\u00e7eriden \u00e7\u00f6kertmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Prigojin isyan\u0131n\u0131 biz unuttuk fakat bu olay i\u015flenmesi gereken bir zaaf g\u00f6stergesi olarak asker\u00ee bellekte yerini ald\u0131. \u00d6te yanda Kremlin, Rus halk\u0131n\u0131 yeni Nazilere kar\u015f\u0131 ikinci Anavatan Sava\u015f\u0131 verdi\u011fine inand\u0131ramad\u0131. Rus halk\u0131 y\u00fczde 87 oy vererek Putin\u2019i yeniden se\u00e7ti ama sava\u015fa gitmek i\u00e7in asker alma dairelerinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde kuyru\u011fa girmedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bu zor durumda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi hareket tarz\u0131 ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar \u015f\u00f6yle olabilir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          ABD ve Avrupa\u2019daki siyas\u00ee ortam\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini bekleyebilir fakat mevcut siyas\u00ee ortam bunu beklemez; her defas\u0131nda kendisini sald\u0131r\u0131lan, Rusya\u2019y\u0131 ise sald\u0131ran taraf olarak g\u00f6stermeyi beceren Bat\u0131 emperyalizmi, taciz ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r, Kas\u0131m\u2019da yap\u0131lacak ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine kadar k\u0131sm\u00ee de olsa netice almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rusya, \u00c7in\u2019le asker\u00ee entegrasyona gidebilir (bir t\u00fcr Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131) fakat \u00c7in, olas\u0131 Pasifik Sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flayana kadar \u201cdolayl\u0131 tutum\u201dunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr; Rusya\u2019yla \u201cVar\u015fova Pakt\u0131\u201d kurmaktansa, ABD\u2019yle bir t\u00fcr Yalta Antla\u015fmas\u0131 yapmay\u0131 kesinlikle tercih eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Kremlin, varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcrse n\u00fckleer silah kullanmaktan \u00e7ekinmez fakat Bat\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ileri gitmez, vekil g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve hibrit taktiklerle Rusya\u2019y\u0131 i\u00e7eriden ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan y\u0131pratarak zay\u0131flatmay\u0131, k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtarak asker\u00ee dengesini bozmay\u0131, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa ve teredd\u00fcde s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek  kilitlemeyi, i\u00e7eriden \u00e7\u00f6kertmeyi tercih eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Saray Rejimi var oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, NATO\u2019nun en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci kara ordusuna sahip T\u00fcrkiye ad\u0131m ad\u0131m bu tehlikeli oyunun i\u00e7ine s\u00fcr\u00fcklenecek, sonunda Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019la kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelecektir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tarafs\u0131z kalmas\u0131n\u0131, NATO\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmek, bu y\u00f6nde Saray\u2019\u0131 ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak, ona veriler sunmak, yol g\u00f6stermek, nasihatte bulunmak tamamen faydas\u0131zd\u0131r. Tarafs\u0131z kalmak, NATO\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kmak ya da NATO\u2019ya T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 dayatabilmek ancak Cumhuriyet\u2019in geleneksel d\u0131\u015f politika ilkelerine ve kurulu\u015f de\u011ferlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 yeni bir devrimci siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131n kurulmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.  Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 31. 03. 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          Rus \u00c7ar\u0131 \u0130van Vasilyevi\u00e7 (M\u00fcthi\u015f \u0130van) i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Opri\u00e7nina\u2019y\u0131 1565 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurdu. Amerikan Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Bildirgesi\u2019ne (1776), yani ABD\u2019nin kurulu\u015funa daha 211 y\u0131l vard\u0131. Siyahlar giyinip siyah atlarla gezen, i\u015faret olarak k\u00f6pek kafatas\u0131 ve s\u00fcp\u00fcrge ta\u015f\u0131yan gizli polis te\u015fkilat\u0131, \u201cCehennem Karanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d ad\u0131yla an\u0131l\u0131yordu.          \u00c7ar II. Aleksandr \u00f6zel g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Ohrana\u2019y\u0131 1866\u2019da … <\/p>\n

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