{"id":1515,"date":"2023-11-05T10:00:03","date_gmt":"2023-11-05T08:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1515"},"modified":"2023-11-05T10:00:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-05T08:00:03","slug":"jeopolitik-firtina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1515","title":{"rendered":"JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K FIRTINA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sovyetler Birli\u011fi Belovej Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla (1991) da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada  T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi   DYP-SHP koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti y\u00f6netiyordu. AB \u00fcyelik s\u00fcrecine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ya da o d\u00f6nemde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcvenli Genel Kurmay\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan jeopolitik f\u0131rt\u0131nay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi elbette beklenemezdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fakat 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, ard\u0131ndan  2004\u2019te toplanan G-8 zirvesinde \u201cGeni\u015fletilmi\u015f Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika B\u00f6lgesi ile M\u00fc\u015fterek bir Gelecek ve \u0130lerleme i\u00e7in Ortakl\u0131k\u201d ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda BOP\u2019un onaylanmas\u0131, bu arada NATO\u2019nun 1999\u2019dan itibaren Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bat\u0131\u2019yla ili\u015fkilerinin eskisi gibi olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye verilen \u00f6nemin NATO\u2019nun geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecinde azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in strateji dehas\u0131 olmak gerekmiyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O s\u0131rada jeopolitik yenilenme, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin jeostratejik konumuna uygun bir g\u00fcvenlik doktrini geli\u015ftirme ihtiyac\u0131 duyulmad\u0131. Saray, BOP e\u015f ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla yetiniyor, Diyarbak\u0131r\u2019\u0131 BOP\u2019un y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 yapmaktan s\u00f6z ediyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen sonra tabloya iki \u00f6nemli unsur eklendi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya\u2019da Putin y\u00f6netimi NATO\u2019nun yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak, \u00e7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve SSCB\u2019nin n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131n\u0131,  da\u011f\u0131lan imparatorlu\u011fun yak\u0131n ve ileri savunma hatlar\u0131n\u0131 geri almak \u00fczere harekete ge\u00e7ti,  G\u00fcney Osetya, Abhazya, K\u0131r\u0131m ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusuyla yetindi ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131 kurdu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

E\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun tamam\u0131nda radikal cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u0130slam\u00ee ak\u0131mlar, Baas\u00e7\u0131 \/ ulusalc\u0131 ak\u0131mlar\u0131n yerini almaya, tehdit alt\u0131ndaki \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ileri savunma mevzii olarak ABD-\u0130srail eksenine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeye,   Arap rejimlerini tabandan tehdit etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flar\u0131nda Saray ilk kez \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir stratejik tutumun gerekli oldu\u011funu anlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elindeki haz\u0131r re\u00e7eteyi, Davuto\u011flu\u2019nun \u201cstratejik derinlik\u201d teorisini uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu teoriye g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye \u201cM\u00fcsl\u00fcman bir s\u00fcperg\u00fc\u00e7 olarak \u0130sl\u00e2m d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 birle\u015ftirme potansiyeli\u201dne sahipti.  T\u00fcrkiye emperyalizmin ta\u015feronu olarak Osmanl\u0131 imperiumunu ekonomik ve asker\u00ee olarak etkileyebilir, g\u00fcneyinde \u0130slam\u00ee bir n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 edinerek s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatabilirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO\u2019nun doldurdu\u011fu jeopolitik bo\u015fluk alan\u0131, Saray\u2019\u0131n benimsedi\u011fi teoriye g\u00f6re, ayn\u0131 zamanda Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu-T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti ile \u00c7arl\u0131k Rusyas\u0131-Sovyetler Birli\u011fi-Rusya Federasyonu aras\u0131ndaki tarih\u00ee rekabet hatlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, NATO ile Rusya aras\u0131ndaki sorunlar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi elbette etkileyecek fakat Saray NATO angajman\u0131n\u0131 Rusya\u2019yla geli\u015ftirece\u011fi ikili ili\u015fkilerle e\u015fzamanl\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcterek k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengelerini belirleme, ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle her krizde \u201carabulucu\u201d rol\u00fc oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131na kavu\u015facakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u0130slam\u00ee  s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin  kendi idar\u00ee te\u015fkilat\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fleterek g\u00fcneyde bir n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 edinme giri\u015fimi,  arkas\u0131nda  yabanc\u0131 istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin muhtemelen gayet iyi bildi\u011fi fakat bizim bilmedi\u011fimiz, ileride T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin aleyhine kullan\u0131labilecek karanl\u0131k olaylar b\u0131rakarak akamete u\u011frad\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada T\u00fcrk Ordusu\u2019nun ABD\u2019nin destekleyip donatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 PKK\/YPG\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik asker\u00ee harek\u00e2tlar\u0131 denize ula\u015facak K\u00fcrt koridoru giri\u015fimini durdurdu, ancak ABD-AB-Rusya bu harek\u00e2tlar\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fc silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fcte kar\u015f\u0131 netice alacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geli\u015ftirilmesine, tamamlanmas\u0131na izin vermedi. PKK, \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00fcneye \u00e7ekip YPG i\u00e7inde toplayarak ABD\u2019nin emir  komutas\u0131 alt\u0131nda d\u00fczenli ordu benzeri bir yap\u0131 i\u00e7inde tertiplendi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada Saray, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131 deposuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme giri\u015fimine, hem Bat\u0131\u2019dan s\u0131cak para temin etme umuduyla, hem de \u00fcmmeti b\u00fcy\u00fcterek Cumhuriyet de\u011ferlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 ku\u015fat\u0131p y\u0131ld\u0131rmak i\u00e7in izin verdi. Bu giri\u015fim,  hem \u00fclkenin T\u00fcrk kimli\u011fini zay\u0131flatarak bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f potansiyeli yaratt\u0131, hem de g\u00fcneydo\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeli bi\u00e7imde belirsiz ve ge\u00e7irgen h\u00e2le getirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O s\u0131rada  ABD\u2019nin siyas\u00ee \u0130slam\u2019\u0131 El-Kaide tarz\u0131 asker\u00ee \u00f6rg\u00fctlerle ya da AKP tarz\u0131 Bat\u0131\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u0130slamc\u0131\u201d partilerle manip\u00fcle etme d\u00f6nemi, \u201cYe\u015fil Ku\u015fak\u201d stratejisiyle birlikte sona ermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srail-Hamas \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi kriz,  varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in Saray\u2019\u0131n hem Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hem de K\u00f6rfez\u2019in  s\u0131cak paras\u0131na acilen ve \u015fiddetle muhta\u00e7 oldu\u011fu bir anda patlak verdi.  Buna ra\u011fmen Say\u0131n Reis, Hamas\u2019\u0131n ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc de\u011fil bir \u201ckurtulu\u015f ve m\u00fccahitler grubu,\u201d \u0130srail\u2019in ise bir devlet de\u011fil \u201c\u00f6rg\u00fct\u201d oldu\u011funu ilan ederek Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tevecc\u00fch\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti.  Kriz ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Saray\u2019\u0131n kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7alan olmad\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye arabuluculuk rol\u00fcnde \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve Katar\u2019\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131.  D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Fidan\u2019\u0131n  rol almak i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge turu sonu\u00e7 vermedi,  etki bile yaratmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada AB, ABD, Kanada, Japonya, Avustralya ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesinde yer alan Hamas, T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131ndan himaye edilip destekleniyormu\u015f gibi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc olu\u015ftu. D\u0131\u015f bas\u0131n Hamas liderlerinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ikameti ve g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc destek hakk\u0131nda geni\u015f haber ve yorumlara yer verdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abdullahiyan, Ankara\u2019ya geldi. Hakan Fidan\u2019la birlikte bas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131karak,  ABD\u2019nin Hamas-\u0130srail sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 CENTCOM eliyle geni\u015fletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, sava\u015f\u0131 kendi komuta merkezinden y\u00f6netti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.  Bundan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce ABD\u2019nin   n\u00fckleer bomba ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesine sahip B-1B stratejik bombard\u0131man u\u00e7aklar\u0131 \u0130ncirlik\u2019e inip iki saat kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Asker\u00ee uzmanlar bu ziyaretin \u0130ncirlik\u2019teki termon\u00fckleer bombalarla ilgili bir tatbikat olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fcler. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 hedef alan bu tatbikattan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Rusya kara, deniz ve hava unsurlar\u0131yla \u201cmisilleme ama\u00e7l\u0131 n\u00fckleer sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d tatbikat\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu arada K\u00fcrecik \u00fcss\u00fc \u0130srail\u2019e istihbarat sa\u011flamaya devam ediyor,  gemiler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den Hayfa liman\u0131na petrol, domates ve sebze ta\u015f\u0131maya devam ediyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 ayn\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Fidan, Berlin\u2019de d\u00fczenlenen AB Geni\u015flemesi ve Reformu Konulu D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanlar\u0131 Konferans\u0131\u2019nda, \u201cAB \u00fcyeli\u011fi konusunda bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fimizi s\u00f6yleyebilirim,\u201d dedi ve AB \u00fcyelerinin \u201cyeni jeopolitik ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda yeni bir ruhla geni\u015fleme\u201d konusunda yeni bir tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemsedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.  Bu s\u00f6zler muhtemelen tebess\u00fcmle kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u0131\u015f politika izledi\u011fini, hamle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 her y\u00f6nde birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen, birbirini kesen farkl\u0131 stratejik \u00e7\u0131karlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, inisiyatifi kaybederek k\u00fcresel sahnede   fel\u00e7 oldu\u011funu, Saray\u2019\u0131n son tahlilde iktidar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel, hatta b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lere her t\u00fcrl\u00fc tavizi vermeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu fakat verecek taviz kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da giderek vahim bir  g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u00e7eride ise ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir mill\u00ee g\u00fcvenlik sorununa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc  anl\u0131yoruz. D\u0131\u015f politikada win-win d\u00f6neminin  ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin jeostratejik konumunu pazarlayarak b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda denge kurma siyasetinin sonuna gelindi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik f\u0131rt\u0131nalar\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde reel politikan\u0131n gerekleri ve imk\u00e2nlar\u0131,  bazen bir \u00f6\u011frenci derne\u011fi ba\u015fkan\u0131 gibi ideolojik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar yapan tek bir adam\u0131n sarayda birka\u00e7 ki\u015fiye dan\u0131\u015farak, deneme-yan\u0131lma y\u00f6ntemiyle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa feda edilemez. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 05. 11. 2023  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan Sovyetler Birli\u011fi Belovej Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla (1991) da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada  T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi   DYP-SHP koalisyon h\u00fck\u00fcmeti y\u00f6netiyordu. AB \u00fcyelik s\u00fcrecine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ya da o d\u00f6nemde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcvenli Genel Kurmay\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015fan jeopolitik f\u0131rt\u0131nay\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi elbette beklenemezdi. Fakat 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, ard\u0131ndan  2004\u2019te toplanan G-8 zirvesinde \u201cGeni\u015fletilmi\u015f Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika B\u00f6lgesi ile M\u00fc\u015fterek bir Gelecek ve … <\/p>\n

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