{"id":1508,"date":"2023-10-22T10:05:06","date_gmt":"2023-10-22T08:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1508"},"modified":"2023-10-22T10:05:06","modified_gmt":"2023-10-22T08:05:06","slug":"ortadoguda-savas-ve-turkiye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1508","title":{"rendered":"ORTADO\u011eU’DA SAVA\u015e VE T\u00dcRK\u0130YE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgemize s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, Saray rejiminin 100 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet parantezini kapatma giri\u015fimiyle tehlikeli bi\u00e7imde \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Biden, ulusa sesleni\u015f konu\u015fmas\u0131nda,  Hamas\u2019\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131na koydu.  \u201cHamas gibi ter\u00f6ristler ile Putin gibi diktat\u00f6rlerin kazanmas\u0131na izin veremeyiz,\u201d dedi (AA<\/em>, 20. 10.23). Biden\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zleri, 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda  kullan\u0131lan \u201cb\u00f6lgeye demokrasi getirme\u201d arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019nin s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi: \u201cHamas ve Putin farkl\u0131 tehdit te\u015fkil ediyor ancak ortak bir noktalar\u0131 var, ikisi de demokratik kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131 tamamen yok etmek istiyor\u201d (AA<\/em>, 20.10.23). Pentagon\u2019un hem Ukrayna\u2019da hem de Ortado\u011fu\u2019da uzun ve giderek t\u0131rmanan bir sava\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Rusya G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Dimitriy Medvedev  ise \u0130zvestiya<\/em>\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan makalesinde (19. 10. 23), en k\u00f6t\u00fc olas\u0131 durumu, \u201ckula\u011fa ne kadar ac\u0131 gelse de\u201d \u2026 \u201cb\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin n\u00fckleer m\u00fcdahalesi\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Medvedev, bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7abalar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131 umudunun \u201chayaletten farks\u0131z\u201d oldu\u011funu, b\u00fct\u00fcn taraflar\u0131n \u201canl\u0131k asker\u00ee hedeflerin pe\u015finde\u201d olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201cbar\u0131\u015f\u0131 pek az insan\u0131n istedi\u011fini\u201d kaydetti (Harici<\/em>, 20. 10. 23, Rus\u00e7adan \u00e7ev. H. Yal\u0131n).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Kar\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131n uzmanlar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 fikirde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Foreign Affairs<\/em>\u2019in m\u00fclakat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 CFR d\u0131\u015f politika uzman\u0131, eski diplomat  Martin Indyk,  1973 Yom Kippur Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda M\u0131s\u0131r Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Enver Sedat\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019le bar\u0131\u015f yapmak i\u00e7in sava\u015fa girdi\u011fini, oysa Hamas\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019le bar\u0131\u015f yapmak gibi bir niyetinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.  Zamanlamaya dikkati \u00e7ekti.  Suudi Arabistan, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve \u0130brahim Anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 imzalayan \u00fclkeler (BAE ve Bahreyn\u2019den Fas ve Sudan\u2019a uzanan) \u015fimdiki sava\u015f\u0131n uzun s\u00fcrmesi h\u00e2linde \u0130srail\u2019le kurduklar\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 ili\u015fkileri s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyeceklerdi. \u0130srail\u2019le ili\u015fkileri d\u00fczelten Arap \u00fclkeleri (T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de ekleyebiliriz) \u201csorunun kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlard\u0131. Ancak \u015fimdi (\u2026) b\u00fct\u00fcn varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 yerle bir oldu. Ve bununla y\u00fczle\u015fmek zorunda kalacaklar\u201d (FA<\/em>, 07. 10. 23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u0130ran defalarca \u0130srail\u2019i haritadan silmek istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.  \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Komutan\u0131 2019\u2019da \u0130ran \u0130sl\u00e2m Devrimi\u2019nden 40 y\u0131l sonra \u0130srail\u2019i yok etmenin art\u0131k  \u201cula\u015f\u0131labilir bir hedef\u201d oldu\u011funu ilan etti. \u201cBu u\u011fursuz rejimin haritadan silinmesi gerekiyor ve bu art\u0131k bir hayal de\u011fil, ba\u015far\u0131labilir bir hedef,\u201d dedi (Euronews<\/em>, 30. 09.19).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u0130srail asker\u00ee uzmanlar\u0131 ise 2021\u2019de \u0130ran’\u0131n bir ay i\u00e7inde  n\u00fckleer silah yapmaya yetecek kadar zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyum \u00fcretebilece\u011fini, n\u00fckleer iml\u00e2 maddesini balistik f\u00fczeye y\u00fcklemek i\u00e7in gerekli sava\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise 18-24 ay i\u00e7inde yapabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler (BBC<\/em>, 23. 11.21).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u0130srail 1981\u2019de Irak\u2019\u0131n, 2007\u2019de Suriye\u2019nin n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6rlerini bombalad\u0131. ABD, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerine sald\u0131r\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli geciktirdi. Fakat Hamas\u2019\u0131n, Gazze halk\u0131n\u0131 \u0130srail\u2019in katliama d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen insafs\u0131z darbelerine terk ederek yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hamle, \u0130srail-ABD\u2019ye \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rma konusunda e\u015fsiz bir f\u0131rsat sa\u011flad\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019dan destek g\u00f6ren  \u0130sl\u00e2mc\u0131 hareketlerin g\u00fc\u00e7ler dengesini dikkate almayan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcvenli hareketleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde emperyalist devletlere say\u0131s\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131 bahanesi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u0130srail-ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde Rusya kendisi i\u00e7in tekin olmayan G\u00fcney Kafkasya \u00fczerinden ikinci bir cephe a\u00e7maktan \u00f6zellikle ka\u00e7\u0131nacakt\u0131r. Rusya iki cephede sava\u015fmaz. \u0130srail\u2019in \u015eam ve Halep havaalanlar\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131n\u0131n bir amac\u0131 da muhtemelen   Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tepki s\u00fcresini \u00f6l\u00e7mekti. Rusya tepki g\u00f6stermedi. Putin\u2019in Karadeniz \u00fczerinde devriye u\u00e7u\u015fu yapan MIG-31 u\u00e7aklar\u0131yla 1000 km menzilli Kinzhal f\u00fczelerinden s\u00f6z etmesi, Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki ABD  gemilerinden \u201ckazara\u201d Lazkiye k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve \/ ya da Hmeymim Hava \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef alabilecek f\u00fczeler i\u00e7in \u00f6nceden yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir uyar\u0131d\u0131r; \u0130ran\u2019la ilgisi yoktur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Rusya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgisi \u0130ran de\u011fil, Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki  kendi asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fidir.  \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ideolojik kayg\u0131dan ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olarak  b\u00fct\u00fcn devletlerle i\u015fbirli\u011fine haz\u0131r olan ve asker\u00ee dikkatini Pasifik\u2019te yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131ran   \u00c7in\u2019in ku\u015fak-yol giri\u015fimini engellemez, gecikmeye neden olabilir. \u00c7in, Molla Devleti\u2019nin yerini alacak devlet ya da devletlerle de i\u015fbirli\u011fine haz\u0131r olacakt\u0131r.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Ne \u0130slam\u00ee ne de ulusal Arap davas\u0131na ilgi duyan, \u0130srail\u2019le asker\u00ee ili\u015fkileri, stratejik ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan Azerbaycan, sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda esas olarak  \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kuzeyindeki Azer\u00ee k\u00f6kenli n\u00fcfusla ilgilenecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye ise K\u00fcrecik\u2019ten \u0130srail\u2019in desteklenmesine, Anadolu topraklar\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn Amerikan \u00fcslerinin azami \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faaliyet g\u00f6stermesine izin verecektir. Bu destek Saray\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkeyi ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc h\u00e2l rejimiyle y\u00f6netmesini gerektirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sald\u0131r\u0131 durumunda \u0130ran\u2019da Molla rejimine kar\u015f\u0131  halk ayaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n Irak\u2019a m\u00fcdahale (2003) s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi b\u00f6l\u00fcnece\u011fi nerdeyse kesindir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ve \u0130srail\u2019in  b\u00f6lgede bir K\u00fcrt devletinin kurulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131racak, Suriye ve Irak\u2019la birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 da  tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olacakt\u0131r.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Yukar\u0131daki olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011ferlendirmelerinin spek\u00fclatif oldu\u011funu, y\u00fczeysel izlenimlere dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmem gerekir. Bu spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 sonsuza kadar geni\u015fletmek,  Arz-\u0131 Mev\u00fbd ya da muhayyel K\u00fcrdistan ile \u0130srail\u2019i birle\u015ftiren Davud Koridoru gibi efsane kabilinden \u201cstratejileri,\u201d hatta sava\u015f\u0131n ileriki evrelerinde ABD-\u0130srail ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeyi n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131na b\u00f6len bir anla\u015fma yapabileceklerini bile eklemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Sava\u015flar\u0131n seyrini asker\u00ee tecr\u00fcbe, uzun vadeli stratejik analiz, asker\u00ee teknoloji ve \u00fcretim kapasitesi ve nihayet sahrada ate\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc ve bazen de tesad\u00fcfler belirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015flar dinamik ve s\u00fcrprizlere a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7lerdir. Nihai sonu\u00e7,  t\u0131pk\u0131 sokak kavgalar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan sonra taraflar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131 kay\u0131p \/ kazan\u00e7 envanterlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Ve \u00fcnl\u00fc sava\u015f tarih\u00e7isi Jeremy Black \u015f\u00f6yle der: \u201c\u0130ki devlet ya da kuvvet sava\u015fa giri\u015firlerse, genelde her iki taraf da kendisinin kazanaca\u011f\u0131na \u2026 inan\u0131r ve  bu konuda taraflardan biri her zaman hatal\u0131d\u0131r\u201d (Jeremy Black 2021, s.416).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Bu sava\u015f T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Saray Devleti\u2019ne Allah\u2019\u0131n son yirmi y\u0131l i\u00e7inde esirgemedi\u011fi l\u00fctuflardan biridir.  Daha \u015fimdiden s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 ve milliyet\u00e7ileri kelep\u00e7e vurarak tutuklayan Saray,  \u00e7ok isteyip de bug\u00fcne kadar beceremedi\u011fi bask\u0131 ortam\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f sayesinde yaratabilecek,  \u0130\u00e7 Cephe\u2019yi kendi taraftar kitlesiyle kurma giri\u015fiminde bulunabilecektir. Amac\u0131, yeni bir anayasayla 100 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet parantezini kapatarak fiilen din\u00ee esaslara dayal\u0131, hanedan benzeri bir sistemle y\u00f6netti\u011fi iktidar yap\u0131s\u0131na hukuki me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdidiyle y\u00fcz y\u00fczedir. Tehdit, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan de\u011fil yukar\u0131dan, mevcut siyas\u00ee iktidar\u0131n zirvesinden gelmekte ve siyas\u00ee toplumun aymazl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beslenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 G\u00fcney Kafkasya ve Karadeniz\u2019e yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Saray b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda denge politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecek, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015fa girmesi h\u00e2linde  Ortado\u011fu\u2019da Bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 S\u00fcnn\u00ee devletlerle birlikte hareket etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00fcrecin ileriki a\u015famalar\u0131nda Saray\u2019\u0131n, ideolojik ve programatik olarak kendisini AKP\u2019den ay\u0131ramayan  muhalefet partilerinden \u00e7ok,  s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131larla b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fen radikal \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketlerle ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n derde girmesi muhtemeldir. Asl\u0131nda g\u00f6\u00e7menler ve s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131lardan da g\u00fc\u00e7 alan radikal \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketler irili ufakl\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn Arap devletlerinin de sorunudur. Daha 2006\u2019da  Suudi Arabistan, Umman ve Bahreyn\u2019deki i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 50-70\u2019ini, di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinde y\u00fczde 80-90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7men i\u015f\u00e7iler olu\u015fturuyordu (Hanieh 2011, s. 108). Bizdeki g\u00f6\u00e7men ve s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131lar ile Arap \u00fclkelerindekiler aras\u0131ndaki fark, onlar\u0131n  disiplin alt\u0131nda tutulan i\u015f\u00e7iler, bizdekilerin ise \u00e7o\u011funlukla politikle\u015fmeye yatk\u0131n, kendi i\u00e7inde \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc  asalaklar olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n sorunu Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) sisteminin ABD\u2019nin denetimine girerek i\u015flevini tamamen kaybetmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce Refah s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131nda Antonio Guterres, BM Genel Sekreteri gibi de\u011fil de insan\u00ee yard\u0131m konvoyu sorumlusu gibi konu\u015fmu\u015f,  sesini duyan, temsil etti\u011fi kurumu ciddiye alan  olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131 1849\u2019da toplanan \u0130kinci Uluslararas\u0131 Bar\u0131\u015f Kongresi\u2019nde konu\u015fan Victor Hugo\u2019nun \u015fu kehanetini do\u011frulayacak gibidir: \u201cBir g\u00fcn gelecek, mermiler ve bombalar oylar\u0131n, \u00fclkelerin genel oy hakk\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir egemen Senato\u2019nun sayg\u0131de\u011fer hakemli\u011finin yerini alacak.\u201d Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 22. 10. 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan         \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgemize s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, Saray rejiminin 100 y\u0131ll\u0131k Cumhuriyet parantezini kapatma giri\u015fimiyle tehlikeli bi\u00e7imde \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131.         Biden, ulusa sesleni\u015f konu\u015fmas\u0131nda,  Hamas\u2019\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131na koydu.  \u201cHamas gibi ter\u00f6ristler ile Putin gibi diktat\u00f6rlerin kazanmas\u0131na izin veremeyiz,\u201d dedi (AA, 20. 10.23). Biden\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zleri, 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda  kullan\u0131lan \u201cb\u00f6lgeye demokrasi getirme\u201d arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 ABD\u2019nin s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi: … <\/p>\n

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