{"id":1361,"date":"2023-03-31T10:04:48","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T08:04:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1361"},"modified":"2023-03-31T10:04:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-31T08:04:48","slug":"cirpinirdi-karadeniz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1361","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7IRPINIRDI KARADEN\u0130Z"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 ve stratejik konumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyecek. Saray\u2019\u0131n son zamanlarda tela\u015fla Atlantik \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019na s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma \u00e7abas\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, se\u00e7imlerden sonra d\u0131\u015f politikada da \u00f6nemli, dramatik de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olmayacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Yeniden Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde Say\u0131n Saray\u2019\u0131n, bir y\u00fcz\u00fc NATO\u2019ya \u00f6teki y\u00fcz\u00fc Rusya\u2019ya bakan ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta merak konusu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Fakat geli\u015fmeler Atlantik istikametini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        T\u00fcrkiye yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanan mallar\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya ihrac\u0131n\u0131  1 Mart\u2019ta durdurdu; \u00c7avu\u015fo\u011flu, ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131\u2019yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden delinmesine izin vermeyeceklerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yledi; S-400\u2019lerle ilgili tart\u0131\u015fmalar birden kesildi;  T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 do\u011fal gaz da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezi olma projesi deprem nedeniyle (!) ertelendi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 Eyl\u00fcl 2022\u2019de T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin  bask\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya\u2019n\u0131n  Mir \u00f6deme sisteminden \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131yla ba\u015flad\u0131.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir politik tutuma m\u0131 i\u015faret etti\u011fi, yoksa se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi bat\u0131dan destek sa\u011flama manevras\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011fu, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu manevray\u0131 ne kadar ciddiye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fal olarak bilinmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Millet ittifak\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politika konusunda ise belirsizlik yok. Babacan, Davuto\u011flu, Ak\u015fener ve \u00c7evik\u00f6z\u2019\u00fcn sicilleri ve s\u00f6ylemleri bu konuda teredd\u00fcde yer b\u0131rakmayacak kadar a\u00e7\u0131k. ABD B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi Jeffry Flake\u2019in se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ilk ziyaretini CHP\u2019ye yapmas\u0131 da \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc bir destek mesaj\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6zetle, \u015fu anki durum veri al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, se\u00e7imleri ister Millet ister Cumhur ittifak\u0131 kazans\u0131n, T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n Atlantik taraf\u0131ndan gelen taleplere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 duyarl\u0131, Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atlantik taleplerinin esas olarak Karadeniz ve Montr\u00f6 Antla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD\u2019nin Stratejik ve Uluslararas\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi\u2019nin (CSIS) \u015eubat 2023 tarihli \u201cKaradeniz B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in yeni bir ABD stratejisine do\u011fru\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 rapor\/analizinde T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yer tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analizin ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a ilgin\u00e7:  The Inhospitable Sea; yani konuk sevmez, misafir kabul etmez, ya\u015fanmas\u0131\/bar\u0131nmas\u0131 zor deniz\u2026  Metni okuduk\u00e7a zorlu\u011fun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Metinde Karadeniz b\u00f6lgesi, Rusya ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki stratejik rekabetin merkez\u00ee fay hatt\u0131; G\u00fcney Kafkasya, do\u011fu Akdeniz, Ortado\u011fu ve Bat\u0131 Balkanlar\u2019\u0131 kapsayan g\u00fcvenlik alan\u0131n\u0131n kesi\u015fme noktas\u0131; Avrupa ile Asya aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir transit ge\u00e7i\u015f yolu olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cVa\u015fington\u2019un, NATO m\u00fcttefiklerine y\u00f6nelik provokasyonlar\u0131 ve  ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130ran\u2019a) zay\u0131flatma giri\u015fimi nedeniyle Ankara\u2019ya bask\u0131 yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d  belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ankara\u2019yla kusursuz bir anla\u015fma yapma hedefi yok. Onun yerine \u201cKaradeniz\u2019de ileri d\u00fczeyde varl\u0131k g\u00f6stermek d\u00e2hil  kilit \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan az say\u0131da meselede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya odaklanan\u201d bir politika \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kilit meselelerden birinin Montr\u00f6 Bo\u011fazlar S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz. Burada Montr\u00f6\u2019y\u00fc do\u011frudan hedef alacak yerde, \u00e7evresinden dolanarak, antla\u015fmay\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rarak delme takti\u011fi hissediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buna g\u00f6re, Montr\u00f6\u2019n\u00fcn getirdi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar Karadeniz\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cm\u00fcttefik\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ihl\u00e2l edilmeyecek. Bu konuda teklif var, \u0131srar yok. Sadece Montr\u00f6\u2019n\u00fcn izin verdi\u011fi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc deniz mevzilenmeleri ve devriyelerine, buna ek olarak NATO kara ve hava sahalar\u0131nda ortak operasyonlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecek.  Bu ortak operasyonlar sayesinde \u201cdurumsal fark\u0131ndal\u0131k\u201d artacak, hava devriyesi ve k\u0131y\u0131 savunmas\u0131 hem Montr\u00f6\u2019y\u00fc ihl\u00e2l etmeyecek hem de b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sa\u011flayacak. \u00d6zetle Montr\u00f6 do\u011frudan ihl\u00e2l edilmeyecek, ihl\u00e2lin kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki se\u00e7imlerden ne bekliyorlar? AKP\u2019nin \u201cmilliyet\u00e7i duru\u015fu\u201dnun ve sars\u0131lan (flailing: zedelenen, tahrip olan) \u00fclke ekonomisini ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in Rusya\u2019ya yana\u015fma ve ABD-T\u00fcrkiye ili\u015fkilerini \u201cresetleme\u201d giri\u015fimlerinin se\u00e7imlerden sonra yat\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umuyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Metin, bir yerde esas pazarl\u0131k konusunu a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa vuruyor: \u201cVa\u015fington, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n Suriye ve PKK\u2019yle ilgili s\u00fcregiden kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ele almaya istekli davran\u0131rsa, yeniden se\u00e7ilmi\u015f bir Erdo\u011fan ya da muhalefetten yeni bir lider, NATO-ABD konusunda daha pragmatik olabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir \u201cGordion d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor: Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131ndan sonra T\u00fcrkiye, Karadeniz\u2019e k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ortak bir g\u00fcvenlik anla\u015fmas\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011finin imk\u00e2ns\u0131z oldu\u011funu anlad\u0131 fakat yeni bir vizyon geli\u015ftiremedi; Bo\u011fazlar\u2019\u0131n koruyucusu stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131skan\u00e7l\u0131kla koruyan Ankara, Karadeniz\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir NATO varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGordion d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d bu \u015fekilde tarif edildikten sonra onu kesmenin ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131ralan\u0131yor: Karadeniz\u2019in art\u0131k Rus sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 durdurma seferinin k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda (periferisinde) kalamayaca\u011f\u0131 kabul edilecek; b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikler ve ortaklar i\u00e7 anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zerek i\u015fbirlik\u00e7i bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimseyecekler. Bu hedefe ula\u015fmak ABD liderli\u011finin, kuvvetlerinin, te\u00e7hizat\u0131n\u0131n ve dikkatinin a\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 (inf\u00fczyonunu) gerektirecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6nemli bir nokta: Karadeniz sorunu   kendi ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6nemli bir alan olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli ve di\u011fer g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n (burada \u201c\u00c7in\u2019in giderek artan tehdidi\u201dne de\u011finiliyor) Karadeniz \u00fczerindeki dikkatleri da\u011f\u0131tmas\u0131na izin verilmemeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesinden Balkanlar\u2019a, oradan Ege\u2019ye inen, Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019den kuzeye k\u0131vr\u0131larak Hazar \u00e7evresine ve do\u011fusuna do\u011fru \u00e7atallan\u0131rken G\u00fcrcistan\u2019a uzanan ku\u015fatma halkas\u0131n\u0131n merkezinde yer alan Karadeniz \u00fczerinde m\u00fcnhas\u0131ran odaklan\u0131yorlar.  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Odessa\u2019y\u0131 alarak Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n denize \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kapatma ihtimali, Romanya-Bulgaristan-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin acilen seferber edilmesini gerektiriyor; orta vadede, Montr\u00f6 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131larak   Karadeniz\u2019in evreler h\u00e2linde bir NATO g\u00f6l\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ama\u00e7lan\u0131yor. ABD\u2019nin Karadeniz stratejisi bundan ibaret.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrk Ordusu\u2019nun NATO\u2019nun Karadeniz\u2019e stratejik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 2008\u2019de -belki daha \u00f6nce-  saptad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6nlemler almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle G\u00fcrcistan-Rusya \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda NATO\u2019nun  denizden b\u00fcy\u00fck kuvvet g\u00f6ndermesini \u00f6nledi\u011fini, k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkeleri birle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun \u00fczerine Amiral Cem G\u00fcrdeniz\u2019in \u201cFrans\u0131z \u0130htilali s\u0131ras\u0131nda bile bir gecede bu kadar \u00e7ok say\u0131da amiral tutuklanmad\u0131\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini, FET\u00d6 marifetiyle amirallerin ordudan tasfiye edildi\u011fini biliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini kazanacak ki\u015finin ve  se\u00e7imlerden sonra olu\u015facak meclis \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun Karadeniz\u2019e k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik ve i\u015fbirli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 hayal bile edece\u011fini sanm\u0131yorum. B\u00f6yle \u015feyler siyaset \u00fcst\u00fc, ilkeli ve stratejik bir Devlet akl\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir. \u0130ktidar\u0131 ve muhalefetiyle mevcut siyas\u00ee partilere b\u00f6yle bir akl\u0131n u\u011framad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn \u201cliderler\u201d ve partiler ABD\u2019nin g\u00f6z\u00fcne girme yar\u0131\u015f\u0131ndalar. Bu yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n se\u00e7imlerden sonra da s\u00fcrece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Mevcut Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cDaha iyisi i\u00e7in imk\u00e2n bulana kadar Montr\u00f6\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc pazarl\u0131\u011fa a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmuyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ruslar\u0131n \u201c\u00c7ernoye-More,\u201d Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n ise \u201cInhospitable\u201d  (konuk sevmez) dedikleri Karadeniz, emperyalist sava\u015f\u0131n r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131yla daha uzun s\u00fcre -o eski t\u00fcrk\u00fcde denildi\u011fi gibi- \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131n\u0131p duracak bak\u0131p T\u00fcrk\u2019\u00fcn bayra\u011f\u0131na. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 31. 03. 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan         14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 ve stratejik konumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyecek. Saray\u2019\u0131n son zamanlarda tela\u015fla Atlantik \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019na s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma \u00e7abas\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa, se\u00e7imlerden sonra d\u0131\u015f politikada da \u00f6nemli, dramatik de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olmayacak.         Yeniden Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde Say\u0131n Saray\u2019\u0131n, bir y\u00fcz\u00fc NATO\u2019ya \u00f6teki y\u00fcz\u00fc Rusya\u2019ya bakan ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta merak konusu.         … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “\u00c7IRPINIRDI KARADEN\u0130Z”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1361"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1361\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1363,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1361\/revisions\/1363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}