{"id":1336,"date":"2023-03-03T09:55:09","date_gmt":"2023-03-03T07:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1336"},"modified":"2023-03-03T09:55:09","modified_gmt":"2023-03-03T07:55:09","slug":"nukleer-savasin-esiginde-durmak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1336","title":{"rendered":"N\u00dcKLEER SAVA\u015eIN E\u015e\u0130\u011e\u0130NDE DURMAK"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ukrayna-abd-bayraklari-getty-1550904_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1337\" srcset=\"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ukrayna-abd-bayraklari-getty-1550904_2.jpg 640w, http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/ukrayna-abd-bayraklari-getty-1550904_2-500x281.jpg 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yavuz Alogan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Birinci ve II. emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015flar\u0131 \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu\u201d sava\u015flard\u0131. &nbsp;&nbsp;N\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu d\u00f6neme ebediyen son verdi. Ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, payla\u015f\u0131m m\u00fccadelesine giren b\u00fcy\u00fck emperyal g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda olan ve olabilecek konvansiyonel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 belirledi. Bu s\u0131n\u0131ra yakla\u015fan her \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bar\u0131\u015fla sonu\u00e7lanacak, bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131pranan g\u00fcce bir hayat alan\u0131 b\u0131rakarak ona kendi \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 dayatacakt\u0131r. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Bir emperyalist g\u00fcc\u00fcn bir di\u011ferinin asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7lerini imha etmesini, topraklar\u0131n\u0131 istila etmesini, b\u00fct\u00fcn kaynaklar\u0131na el koyarak \u00f6ncekinden tamamen farkl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni kurmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu\u201d sava\u015f, n\u00fckleer silahlar sayesinde yerini hibrit sava\u015f, vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 ya da y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131 denilen, \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu olmayan\u201d bir sava\u015f tarz\u0131na b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ama\u00e7, d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 yok etmek de\u011fil, evreler halinde zay\u0131flatarak geri \u00e7ekilmeye, stratejik alanlar\u0131 bo\u015faltmaya zorlamakt\u0131r. Taktik planda bu sava\u015f bir dizi \u00e7evrelemeyi (\u201ccontain\u201d etmeyi), ku\u015fatmay\u0131, d\u00fc\u015fman mevzilerini ani manevralarla bo\u015faltarak cephe de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi, geri \u00e7ekilme yollar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmay\u0131, d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n ikmal ve ileti\u015fim hatlar\u0131n\u0131 bozmay\u0131, yan\u0131ltmay\u0131, ittifaklar\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131, ekonomik sabotajlar\u0131 vs gerektirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2019nin ta\u015feronu Ukrayna ile Rusya aras\u0131nda s\u00fcrmekte olan sava\u015fta b\u00fct\u00fcn bu \u00f6zellikleri g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Bu sava\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma cephesidir. &nbsp;Cephenin gerisinde yer alan esas g\u00fc\u00e7ler, enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve nakil g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131, ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 ve ticar\u00ee mallar\u0131n toplanma ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezlerini denetlemek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele eden ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019dir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Profesyonel asker\u00ee uzmanlar ilk iki emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 incelemi\u015fler, sava\u015f\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 ve neticesini belirleyen, d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 niteli\u011findeki olaylar\u0131 saptamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ngiliz asker\u00ee teorisyen ve harp tarih\u00e7isi Sir Basil Henry Liddell&nbsp; Hart bu uzmanlardan biridir; II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn cephelerini &nbsp;her iki taraf\u0131n izledi\u011fi taktikler d\u00fczeyinde incelemi\u015f, sava\u015ftan sonra esir al\u0131nan Alman generalleriyle uzun asker\u00ee\/teknik m\u00fclakatlar yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (bkz. <em>Hitler\u2019in Generalleri Konu\u015fuyor<\/em>, Kronik Kitap 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Liddell Hart\u2019a g\u00f6re, Nazi Almanyas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131, Ruslar\u0131n Berlin\u2019e girmelerinden be\u015f y\u0131l \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f; Hitler, \u0130ngiliz&nbsp; ordusunun Dunkirk\u2019ten tahliyesine izin verdi\u011fi anda (1940)&nbsp; stratejik yenilginin yolunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (Liddell Hart, <em>Strateji, Dolayl\u0131 Tutum<\/em>, T. C. Genelkurmay Harp Tarihi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Stratejik Et\u00fctler Dairesi Yay\u0131nlar\u0131 1973, s. 267). Hatan\u0131n sebebi, Hitler\u2019in Kom\u00fcnizm\u2019e (SSCB) kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ngiltere\u2019yi yan\u0131na \u00e7ekme umuduna kap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu umudu, Churchill ile Roosevelt Atlantik Bildirisi\u2019ni (1941) imzalad\u0131ktan sonra bile, sava\u015f\u0131n son safhas\u0131na kadar saplant\u0131 h\u00e2linde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130leride Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tarihini yazacak olanlar, bu \u00fclkenin stratejik yenilgi an\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen 8 Aral\u0131k 1991 olarak saptayacaklard\u0131r. &nbsp;O g\u00fcn, Putin\u2019in daha sonra \u201cYirminci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi\u201d&nbsp; olarak tan\u0131mlayaca\u011f\u0131 Belovej Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetleri Birli\u011fi da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00f6ylece tahakk\u00fcme dayanan \u00c7arl\u0131k rejimiyle, ard\u0131ndan bir t\u00fcr reel sosyalist ideolojiyle kendi i\u00e7indeki milliyetlerin birli\u011fini sa\u011flayan emperyal Rusya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek gev\u015fek bir federasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Da\u011f\u0131lma karar\u0131 ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgale ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 24 \u015eubat 2022 aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre, Bol\u015feviklerin mezara koydu\u011fu ve Putin\u2019in bir hortlak olarak mezardan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortodoks Rus \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ideolojisiyle bu gev\u015fek federasyonun bir arada tutulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Sovyet halk\u0131n\u0131n eme\u011fini ya\u011fmalayan gerici bir oligar\u015finin y\u00f6netti\u011fi, n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip bir akaryak\u0131t pompa istasyonu oldu\u011fu Ukrayna sahas\u0131nda kan\u0131tland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cRusya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 yoktur\u201d diyen Putin\u2019in, Belovej Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla terk edilen Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 geri almak i\u00e7in ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejik hedefi belirsiz ve hesaps\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131, tam da Atlantik emperyalizminin Rusya\u2019y\u0131 iyice y\u0131pratt\u0131ktan sonra k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek aradan \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fi hamleydi. (ABD sonu\u00e7suz k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmalarla \u00c7in\u2019in de benzer bir hamleyi Tayvan\u2019a yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.) &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n ilhak\u0131n\u0131 basit protestolarla ge\u00e7i\u015ftiren Bat\u0131, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fgal etmeye g\u00fcc\u00fc yetmeyen Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekilmek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 &nbsp;&nbsp;b\u00f6lgeleri (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporejye, Herson) Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yeni s\u0131n\u0131r hatt\u0131 olarak kabul etmedi ve sava\u015f\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131rarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD\u2019nin Ukrayna sahas\u0131ndaki stratejisi, Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 arkas\u0131nda tutarak ve k\u0131tan\u0131n kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak Rusya\u2019y\u0131 y\u0131pratmak ve Putin oligar\u015fisini devirerek Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131\u2019yla siyas\u00ee entegrasyonunu sa\u011flamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u015fimdiki (d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) stratejisi, yeni s\u0131n\u0131r hatt\u0131 olarak ilan etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgeyi tahkim etmek ve Odessa\u2019y\u0131 alarak Karadeniz\u2019i Ukrayna\u2019ya kapatmak, yan\u0131 s\u0131ra n\u00fckleer bl\u00f6fle ABD\u2019yi bar\u0131\u015fa zorlamakt\u0131r.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargonun etkili olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 tarafs\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rmak, en az\u0131ndan b\u00f6lmek i\u00e7in enerji silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanma giri\u015fiminin yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.&nbsp; Rusya sava\u015fta sivilleri ve kent altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hedef ald\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015fman cepheyi geni\u015fletti ve g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019in 12 maddeden olu\u015fan \u201ctutum a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131\u201dyla \u00fcstlendi\u011fi arabuluculuk rol\u00fc Bat\u0131\u2019da hi\u00e7bir etki yaratmad\u0131. \u201cSo\u011fuk Sava\u015f mant\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ls\u0131n\u201d ya da \u201cD\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klara son verilsin\u201d gibi temennilerden olu\u015fan a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n son maddesi (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131lanma) sava\u015f\u0131n varaca\u011f\u0131 yeri i\u015faret etmekte ve \u00f6rt\u00fck bi\u00e7imde uzla\u015fma \u00f6nermektedir. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c7in, ABD\u2019yi tecrit ederek Avrupa\u2019yla ekonomik ili\u015fkilerini geli\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n asker\u00ee\/stratejik m\u00fcttefiki gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131pranmas\u0131 ve Kremlin\u2019deki iktidar yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi h\u00e2linde Kazakistan ve Sibirya y\u00f6n\u00fcnde, Tibet-Sincan-Mo\u011folistan-Man\u00e7urya hatt\u0131n\u0131n kuzeyinde n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rusya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusunun az topraklar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f, \u00c7in\u2019in ise n\u00fcfusunun \u00e7ok topraklar\u0131n\u0131n az oldu\u011funu, iki \u00fclkenin ayn\u0131 ideolojiyi payla\u015f\u0131rken bile g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte teorik (Huru\u015fov revizyonizmi, sosyal emperyalizm vs), ger\u00e7ekte ise stratejik nedenlerle birbirine d\u00fc\u015fman kesildi\u011fini, s\u0131n\u0131r \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na girdi\u011fini, 1970\u2019lerde \u00c7in\u2019in &nbsp;ABD\u2019yle anla\u015farak&nbsp; Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019y\u0131 \u00e7evreleme siyasetinin en kararl\u0131 &nbsp;savunucusu oldu\u011funu &nbsp;ve&nbsp; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir &nbsp;\u201c\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya Hareketi\u201dnin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ko\u015fullarda bile jeopolitik nedenlerle emperyalizmle 20 y\u0131l sava\u015fan &nbsp;Vietnam\u2019a sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (1979) &nbsp;unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tekrar ba\u015fa d\u00f6necek olursak, konvansiyonel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n n\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 1991\u2019de u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 jeopolitik felaketin s\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011funu; Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131ndan sonra ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 yine n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n belirleyece\u011fi bir So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu sava\u015f\u0131n yenilenmi\u015f bir BM temelinde yeni bir kapitalist d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni kuruluncaya kadar insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tehdit edece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Kesin sonu\u00e7lu topyek\u00fbn sava\u015f n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler hipotetiktir. &nbsp;Prospektif (ileriye y\u00f6nelik) her g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f hipotetiktir. Bunlar tarihsel s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak do\u011frulan\u0131r ya da yanl\u0131\u015flan\u0131r. Netice olarak sermaye birikiminin ve ihrac\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 silahlanmayla at ba\u015f\u0131 gitti\u011fi, insanlar d\u00e2hil her \u015feyin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, ba\u015ftan sona kapitalist bir d\u00fcnyada emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131mdan s\u00f6z ediyoruz. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taraf tutmak ya da taraflar\u0131n g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc etki ajan\u0131 olmak, h\u00e2kimiyet m\u00fccadelesi veren n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7lerden birini mazlum, di\u011ferini zalim g\u00f6stermek gibi bir mecburiyetimiz yoktur. Zul\u00fcm sicilleri birbirine yak\u0131nd\u0131r. &nbsp;1970\u2019lerde sosyalist \u00fclkelerin d\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devrim stratejisi olarak uygulamaya kalkan baz\u0131 sosyalist \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda komik birer karikat\u00fcr gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. <em>Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 03.03. 2023.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yavuz Alogan&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Birinci ve II. emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015flar\u0131 \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu\u201d sava\u015flard\u0131. &nbsp;&nbsp;N\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu d\u00f6neme ebediyen son verdi. Ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, payla\u015f\u0131m m\u00fccadelesine giren b\u00fcy\u00fck emperyal g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda olan ve olabilecek konvansiyonel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 belirledi. Bu s\u0131n\u0131ra yakla\u015fan her \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bar\u0131\u015fla sonu\u00e7lanacak, bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131pranan g\u00fcce bir hayat alan\u0131 b\u0131rakarak &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1336\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;N\u00dcKLEER SAVA\u015eIN E\u015e\u0130\u011e\u0130NDE DURMAK&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1336"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1338,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1336\/revisions\/1338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}