{"id":1290,"date":"2023-01-13T10:45:31","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T08:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1290"},"modified":"2023-01-13T10:45:31","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T08:45:31","slug":"cografya-degismez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1290","title":{"rendered":"CO\u011eRAFYA DE\u011e\u0130\u015eMEZ"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Tarih\u00e7i Eric Hobsbawm \u0130ngiliz emperyalizminin basiretli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eder. Ge\u00e7en y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda kendi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir tutumla de\u011ferlendirmi\u015f, d\u00fcnya denizlerinde asker\u00ee denetim kuracak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve zengin ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin y\u00fckselece\u011fini fark etmi\u015ftir.  Nitekim ABD yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihinde \u201cd\u00fcnya hegemonyas\u0131 kurma iddias\u0131nda olan tek \u00fclke\u201d olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in Hobsbawm \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131da bulunur. ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel hegemonya iddias\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin ve \u201cyeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni [\u201ctek kutuplu d\u00fcnya\u201d] kurmaya \u00f6zenmesi\u201dnin \u201ctehlikeli bir kumar\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n insanl\u0131k i\u00e7in risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrer (Hobsbawm, Yeni Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n E\u015fi\u011finde<\/em>, Yordam 2007, s. 60).   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Yap\u0131s\u0131 gere\u011fi ABD\u2019nin Hobsbawm\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi tehlikeli kumar\u0131 insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riske sokacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde oynamaya kararl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 Amiral Alfred Mahan (1840-1914) gibi yorumlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u201cABD\u2019nin savunma hatlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya denizlerinden ba\u015flar\u201d) g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.  Yankee emperyalizminin \u00c7in\u2019e, Rusya\u2019ya ve Avrupa\u2019ya bakarken kendisiyle boy \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc\u015febilecek bir asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 potansiyeli g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi, uzun y\u0131llar boyunca ince diplomasi e\u015fli\u011finde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u201ccontainment\u201d (\u00e7evreleme, kapsama) siyasetinde ustala\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emperyal hegemonyan\u0131n kendi aralar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesine (\u0130ngiltere\u2019den ABD\u2019ye ge\u00e7mesine) raz\u0131 olan Anglo-Sakson \u00fclkeler Nazi Almanyas\u0131-Japonya mihverinin kara Avrupas\u0131\u2019na ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019ya h\u00fckmetmesine r\u0131za g\u00f6stermeyerek II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6ze ald\u0131larsa, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde de \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmesine ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bat\u0131ya do\u011fru geni\u015flemesine ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde r\u0131za g\u00f6stermeyerek III. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00f6ze ald\u0131lar. \u015eimdilik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 n\u00fckleer imhaya varabilecek topyek\u00fbn sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131nmakta, dolayl\u0131 tutum ve \u201chibrit\u201d y\u00f6ntemlerle vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 vermektedirler. Ukrayna-Rusya cephesi s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, geni\u015fleme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Alfred Mahan, Asya Meselesi (The Problem of Asia: And Its Effect Upon International Policies<\/em>) ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 kitab\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde ve Hint Okyanusu\u2019nun kuzeyinde uzanan \u00fclkeleri Asya\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 alan\u0131,\u201d ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle \u201cRus kara g\u00fcc\u00fc ile \u0130ngiliz [g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ABD] deniz g\u00fcc\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesi\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co\u011frafyan\u0131n \u0130ntikam\u0131<\/em> adl\u0131 kitab\u0131nda bu bilgiyi aktaran Robert D. Kaplan (K\u00fcre 2019, s. 134) Mahan\u2019dan 40 y\u0131l sonra bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesinin \u201ckenar ku\u015fak\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (Spykman taraf\u0131ndan) s\u00f6yler. Rekabet konusu olan bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 alanda bulunan \u00f6nemli \u00fclkeler \u00c7in, Afganistan, \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019dir.  Kaplan, 1900 y\u0131l\u0131nda Mahan\u2019\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn jeopolitik \u00f6neme sahip mihver devletlerini tespit edebilmesi   bir tesad\u00fcf de\u011fildir,\u201d der. \u201cZira co\u011frafya de\u011fi\u015fmez\u201d (agy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So\u011fuk Sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi daha geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 kapsayan bu kenar ku\u015faktan \u00e7evrelenmi\u015f, ku\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ku\u015fatma 1972\u2019de Nixon-Mao antla\u015fmas\u0131yla tamamlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ayn\u0131 ku\u015fak daha da geni\u015flemi\u015f olarak Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019i \u00e7evrelemekte; Balt\u0131k B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden Balkanlar\u2019a ve Ege\u2019ye, Kuzey Afrika\u2019dan Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya, Kafkasya\u2019ya, Taliban iktidar\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD\u2019nin y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi Afganistan\u2019dan \u00c7in\u2019in  bat\u0131s\u0131na,  AUKUS (ABD-\u0130ngiltere-Avustralya) ittifak\u0131yla Hint-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine, \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ne, potansiyel olarak Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019ye  uzanmaktad\u0131r.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Bu geni\u015f ku\u015fakta belirsizli\u011fini koruyan iki kritik \u00fclke, NATO\u2019yla ili\u015fkisi sorgulanan T\u00fcrkiye ve i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye Karadeniz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131, \u0130ran ise Basra K\u00f6rfezi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 nedeniyle hem ABD hem de Rusya i\u00e7in stratejik olarak vazge\u00e7ilmezdir. Ukrayna\u2019da ba\u015flayan NATO-Rusya s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n krizin ileriki evrelerinde bu iki \u00fclkenin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 co\u011frafi b\u00f6lgelere yay\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \u0130ran\u2019daki halk ayaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n Molla Rejimi\u2019ni devirmesi ya da \u00fclkenin co\u011frafi olarak par\u00e7alanmas\u0131 b\u00f6lge \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 olan emperyal g\u00fc\u00e7lerin dizilimini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek ve stratejik sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furacakt\u0131r.       <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bahar aylar\u0131nda yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lan se\u00e7imlerin d\u00fcnya dengesini etkileyece\u011fine dair d\u0131\u015f bas\u0131nda bolca rastlanan s\u00f6ylemler \u00fclkemizin stratejik olarak hem Rusya hem de ABD i\u00e7in mevcut sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda vazge\u00e7ilmez olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Saray\u2019\u0131n hen\u00fcz s\u0131nanmam\u0131\u015f pragmatik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin NATO ittifak\u0131 i\u00e7indeki konumunu zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f fakat Rusya\u2019yla stratejik ittifak ili\u015fkisi sa\u011flayamam\u0131\u015f ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez bir karars\u0131z denge durumu yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bat\u0131l\u0131 yay\u0131n organlar\u0131nda yap\u0131lan analizlere g\u00f6re Saray y\u00f6netimi Rusya\u2019dan f\u00fcze savunma sistemi alarak NATO\u2019nun g\u00fcvenli\u011fini tehlikeye atm\u0131\u015f, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcyeli\u011fini geciktirerek ittifak\u0131n geni\u015flemesine Rusya lehine engel olmu\u015f, Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7men ak\u0131n\u0131yla s\u00fcrekli tehdit etmi\u015f, Yunanistan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 retori\u011fin tonunu art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrk yetkililerin  ABD\u2019nin Erdo\u011fan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet darbesini destekledi\u011fi ve ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131  T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131 Va\u015fington ile Ankara aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gerilmesine neden olmu\u015ftur (Bobby Ghosh, \u201cThe Most Important Election in 2023 will be in Turkey,\u201d Bloomberg<\/em>, 09. 01.23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayn\u0131 makalede se\u00e7imleri kazanmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde muhalefetin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi Bat\u0131\u2019yla uyumlu bir d\u0131\u015f politika akt\u00f6r\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrece\u011fi belirtilmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki iktidar ve muhalefetin b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinden olu\u015fan buz da\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnen iki ucu oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muhalefetin se\u00e7imleri kazanmas\u0131 ve Saray\u2019\u0131n sahneyi terk etmesi Rusya i\u00e7in jeopolitik bir felakete e\u015fde\u011ferdir. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131yla birlikte  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Saray rejimine ihtiyac\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yle ili\u015fkileri sayesinde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisi azalm\u0131\u015f, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Rusya  se\u00e7imlere do\u011fru  Saray\u2019\u0131n ekonomik kaynak aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na yan\u0131t vermi\u015f, Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 besleyecek b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gaz da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezini T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kurmay\u0131 \u00f6nermi\u015f (Putin: \u201cSizi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m merkezi yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u201d), Gazprom\u2019un alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bir y\u0131l kadar ertelemi\u015f, Akkuyu N\u00fckleer santral\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in toplam 20 milyar dolar vaat etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlardan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Saray\u2019\u0131, ABD\u2019nin ise muhalefeti istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fctleriyle ve her t\u00fcrl\u00fc kaynakla sonuna kadar destekleyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bu durum Ukrayna\u2019da s\u0131cak sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen ABD-Rusya rekabetinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Foreign Policy<\/em>\u2019nin \u201cse\u00e7imlere do\u011fru kan banyosu\u201d beklentisi bu ba\u011flamda anlam kazanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saray\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imi kazan\u0131p Rusya\u2019yla stratejik ittifak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kesin tercih yapmas\u0131 ABD\u2019nin deste\u011fiyle Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Ege\u2019de karasular\u0131n\u0131 12 mile \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayacak yeni bir krize, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtma ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara, PKK\/YPG\u2019nin bu kez \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerinde asker\u00ee olarak hareketlenmesine yol a\u00e7abilecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muhalefetin ya da Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130mamo\u011flu gibi bir \u015fahsiyetin se\u00e7imleri kazanmas\u0131 durumunda ise Rusya\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda \u00c7ar II. Nikolay\u2019\u0131n \u00fcnl\u00fc d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 Sergey Dimitriyevi\u00e7 Sazonov\u2019un g\u00f6zleriyle bakaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n nas\u0131l oldu\u011funu merak edenler Altay Cengizer\u2019in Adil Haf\u0131zan\u0131n I\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Osmanl\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Son Sava\u015f\u0131<\/em> (\u00d6t\u00fcken 2017) adl\u0131 kitab\u0131n\u0131n \u201c21 \u015eubat 1914 Tarihli \u00c7arl\u0131k Konferans\u0131 ve \u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck Heng\u00e2me\u2019 Fikri\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131   XI. B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u2019\u00fc ile \u201cSazonov\u2019un 15 Mart Anla\u015fmas\u0131yla Sonu\u00e7lanan \u0130stanbul ve Bo\u011fazlara Y\u00f6nelik Hamle Diplomasisi\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 XIX. B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden okumalar\u0131nda fayda vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elbette tarihsel ko\u015fullar, asker\u00ee imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetler, ittifak potansiyelleri g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde y\u00fcz y\u0131l \u00f6ncekinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131d\u0131r fakat \u201cco\u011frafya de\u011fi\u015fmez.\u201d Rus devrimci Lev Tro\u00e7ki 1939\u2019da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir makalede \u201cetki alanlar\u0131\u201d terimini kullanm\u0131\u015f, 1917 sonras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik durumla ilgili \u00f6rnek verirken, \u201cDevrimci yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131 \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 idi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc devrim co\u011frafi ko\u015fullar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmez,\u201d demi\u015ftir (Lev Tro\u00e7ki, Marksizmi Savunurken<\/em>, Kardelen, 1992, s. 59). Putin oligar\u015fisinin kar\u015f\u0131devrimi de co\u011frafi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde kimlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmesi, d\u0131\u015f politikada g\u00fcndelik at pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 terk etmesi, geleneksel diplomatik ve asker\u00ee analiz kabiliyetini tarihsel birikimini kullanarak yeniden kazanmas\u0131, yeni d\u00fcnya durumuna g\u00f6re siyas\u00ee partilerin ve siyas\u00ee toplumun \u00fczerinde bir mill\u00ee strateji belgesi haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve \u201ci\u00e7 cephe\u201dyi tahkim ederek halk aras\u0131nda yarat\u0131lan uzla\u015fmaz \u00e7eli\u015fkileri \u00e7\u00f6zmesi gerekir.   Aksi h\u00e2lde \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011fumuz co\u011frafyan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sonunu and\u0131ran yeni bir Sevr (1920) bedeli koyma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artacakt\u0131r. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 13.01. 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan         Tarih\u00e7i Eric Hobsbawm \u0130ngiliz emperyalizminin basiretli davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eder. Ge\u00e7en y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda kendi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir tutumla de\u011ferlendirmi\u015f, d\u00fcnya denizlerinde asker\u00ee denetim kuracak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve zengin ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin y\u00fckselece\u011fini fark etmi\u015ftir.  Nitekim ABD yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem tarihinde \u201cd\u00fcnya hegemonyas\u0131 kurma iddias\u0131nda olan tek \u00fclke\u201d olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.         So\u011fuk Sava\u015f sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in … <\/p>\n

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