{"id":1266,"date":"2022-12-16T11:15:47","date_gmt":"2022-12-16T09:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1266"},"modified":"2022-12-16T11:15:47","modified_gmt":"2022-12-16T09:15:47","slug":"her-sey-cok-mu-guzel-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1266","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0HER \u015eEY \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00c7OK MU G\u00dcZEL OLACAK?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bilinmeyen birden \u00e7ok e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olay\u0131n etkile\u015ferek   ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen duruma belirsizlik diyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Belirsizlik durumunda birbirinin yolunu kesmeye ya da a\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, politik iradelerini farkl\u0131 siyas\u00ee hayat ko\u015fullar\u0131nda olu\u015fturmu\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin konumunu ve h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetlerinin olaylar\u0131 etkileme derecesini \u00f6l\u00e7emezsiniz. Bir bak\u0131ma bu, Alman fizik\u00e7i Werner Heisenberg\u2019in \u201cbelirsizlik prensibi\u201dne (1927) benzer.  Bu prensibe g\u00f6re  bir kuantum  par\u00e7ac\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hem konumundan hem de h\u0131z\u0131ndan ayn\u0131 anda emin olamazs\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Siyas\u00ee toplumun b\u00fct\u00fcn par\u00e7ac\u0131klar\u0131 belirsizlik durumunda do\u011fay\u0131 taklit eder. Her bir par\u00e7ac\u0131k hayatta kalmak ya da g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in konumunu ve h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir, b\u00f6ylece \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flar. Her  \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fma her bir par\u00e7ac\u0131\u011f\u0131n konumunu ve h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha de\u011fi\u015ftirerek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen, beklenmedik sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7ar. Konumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirip h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak bir  bilardo topu k\u00fcmesine \u00e7arpan tek bir topun b\u00fct\u00fcn toplar\u0131n konumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmesini ve her bir topun kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131n yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019na verilen ceza tam da b\u00f6yle bir etki yaratm\u0131\u015f, belirsizli\u011fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Belirsizlik durumunda kesin sonu\u00e7lu analiz yapmaya kalk\u0131\u015fmadan, tekil durumlara yol a\u00e7an etkenleri anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerekir. \u00d6nce anlayacaks\u0131n\u0131z ki analiz edebilesiniz. Anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u015feyi nas\u0131l analiz edeceksiniz? Anlamak i\u00e7in de bilgiye ula\u015fman\u0131z gerekir. Bilgisine ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z olay\u0131 anlayamazs\u0131n\u0131z.  Olsa olsa yar\u0131m yamalak, \u00e7eli\u015fkin bilgilerle anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z.  Bunun \u00fczerine bir de kesin sonu\u00e7lu analiz bina ederseniz belirsizli\u011fe katk\u0131da bulunmu\u015f olursunuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca s\u0131n\u0131fsal taban\u0131 olmayan, etnik ve mezheb\u00ee olarak b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kurgulanm\u0131\u015f, komplolarla kurulmu\u015f ya da hizaya sokulmu\u015f, ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelen hi\u00e7bir siyas\u00ee gelene\u011fin temsilcisi olmayan, sa\u011f-sol-merkez gibi bir konumda yer almayan, mafya tarz\u0131nda y\u00f6netilen, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f komplolara g\u00f6re vaziyet alan partilerin nesini analiz edeceksiniz?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dcstelik \u00fclkede ba\u015fta anayasa olmak \u00fczere neredeyse her kanun defalarca g\u00f6z g\u00f6re g\u00f6re  ihlal edilmi\u015f, en temel hukuki g\u00fcvence olan adil yarg\u0131lanma hakk\u0131, h\u00e2kim teminat\u0131 (habeas corpus) siyasetin kaprislerine feda edilmi\u015ftir. B\u00f6yle bir yerde orman kanunu i\u015fleyecek   ve hi\u00e7 kimse kurdu\u011fu oyunun sonucundan emin olamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O h\u00e2lde dedektif gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek gerekir. Dedektif d\u00fcz ve basit mant\u0131k y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcr, kestirmeden giderek delilden sonuca ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Fakat deliller kesin de\u011filse faili bulmak yine zorla\u015f\u0131r. Bu durumda bir spek\u00fclasyon aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r, herkes kendi me\u015frebine ve niyetine g\u00f6re delil icat edip yorum yapmaya ba\u015flar. Fakat bu aral\u0131k ge\u00e7icidir; bir zaman sonra mutlaka kapanacakt\u0131r; barika-i hakikat (hakikat g\u00fcne\u015fi) baz\u0131lar\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k, baz\u0131lar\u0131na karanl\u0131k g\u00f6lgeler getirerek ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spek\u00fclasyon aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclenler \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Say\u0131n Reis se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde \u0130BB\u2019ye \u00e7\u00f6kerek \u0130stanbul\u2019da yuvalanan ve arpas\u0131 kesilen tarikat ve cemaatleri sevindirmek, \u015fehrin kaynaklar\u0131na el koyarak taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131 co\u015fturmak istemi\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lakin tecr\u00fcbeli Reis\u2019in bu kadar ucuz bir kazan\u0131m u\u011fruna orta vadede a\u011f\u0131r bir imaj kayb\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ze almas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Saray\u2019da yuvalanm\u0131\u015f bir kli\u011fin bu tezg\u00e2h\u0131 kurup i\u015fletmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.   Evrensel ve tarihsel olarak Saray, tan\u0131m\u0131 gere\u011fi,  farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, ajanlar\u0131n ve kliklerin  Kral\u0131 etkilemek i\u00e7in \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc faaliyet y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir entrika yuvas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temyiz s\u00fcreci k\u0131sa s\u00fcrer ve karar onaylan\u0131rsa Reis\u2019in \u0130stanbul\u2019u geri almak istedi\u011fi; temyizde karar bozulur ya da s\u00fcre\u00e7 zamana yay\u0131l\u0131rsa Reis\u2019ten habersiz tezg\u00e2h kuruldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun aldat\u0131larak Almanya\u2019ya g\u00f6nderildi\u011fi ve oradan apar toprak getirilerek madara edildi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.  Genel Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n Almanya\u2019dan d\u00f6nerek partililerine hitap etmesini beklemeyen \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun, y\u00fcz\u00fcnde \u201cRabbiyessir\u201d g\u00f6ren ve Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kendisine neredeyse davul zurnayla destek veren Ak\u015fener\u2019i karar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra Sara\u00e7hane\u2019de k\u00fcrs\u00fcye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 tek kelimeyle siyas\u00ee bir skandald\u0131r. \u0130nsan genel ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131 bekler!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun \u201ctarihi\u201d konu\u015fmas\u0131nda   birka\u00e7 kez \u0130stanbul\u2019u b\u00fct\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yle birlikte anarak, \u201cgen\u00e7li\u011fim var \u2026  bu omuzlar her y\u00fck\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131r\u201d diyerek geni\u015fletti\u011fi tesir sahas\u0131, K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun \u201c16 milyon seni kucakl\u0131yor\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle daralt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, Ak\u015fener\u2019in \u201c16 de\u011fil, 85 milyon senin arkanda\u201d s\u00f6zleriyle tekrar geni\u015fletilmi\u015ftir. \u0130ki adam\u0131n Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in rekabet etti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Say\u0131n Saray rakip olarak kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nu istemekte, \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019ndan ise \u00e7ekinmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alt\u0131l\u0131 Masa\u2019daki be\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131n K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu aday olmas\u0131n diye \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019na raz\u0131 olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn, kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k durumunda Meral Han\u0131m\u2019\u0131n aradan s\u0131yr\u0131l\u0131p aday olmas\u0131 ise muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        CIA ajan\u0131 Henry Barkey \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun mahk\u00fbm edilmesinden sonra iki b\u00fcy\u00fck kaybedenden birinin Erdo\u011fan, di\u011ferinin ise \u201ccumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ortak aday olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanan\u201d Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        K\u00fcresel sistemin \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun \u015fahs\u0131nda ve toplam formasyonunda Zelenskiy ya da \u015eaaka\u015fvili gibi se\u00e7ilmi\u015f adamlar\u0131 and\u0131ran bir gev\u015feklik, kolayca doldurulabilecek bir zihinsel bo\u015fluk g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anl\u0131yoruz. ABD ve AB\u2019nin siyas\u00ee toplumu \u201cdemokrasi\u201d ad\u0131na  CHP-\u0130Y\u0130P-HDP koalisyonuna do\u011fru b\u00fckmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Saray\u2019\u0131n ise bu ihtiyac\u0131 anlayarak  mutasavver koalisyonun yerine getirmesi beklenen g\u00f6reve talip olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fakat siyaseten katetti\u011fi mesafe b\u00f6yle bir rol de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine m\u00fcsait olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tuhaf ve \u00e7aresiz bir manzara arz ederek debelendi\u011fini  g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu b\u00fckme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n AKP\u2019nin gerileme s\u00fcrecinde nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7 verece\u011fini, sahici bir de\u011fi\u015fim bekleyen halk kitlelerinin her \u015feyin \u00e7ok g\u00fczel olaca\u011f\u0131na nas\u0131l ikna edilece\u011fini do\u011fal olarak bilemiyoruz. Ancak olaylar\u0131n RAND Corporation\u2019\u0131n Ocak 2020 tarihli raporuna \u015fimdilik uygun bi\u00e7imde geli\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Raporda \u201cotokrat Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 devirebilecek en zorlu aday Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu\u201d denilmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun \u0130ngiltere B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi ile ba\u015f ba\u015fa bal\u0131k yedi\u011fini ve  \u00fclkesine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u0130ngiliz istihbarat servisi MI6\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7en B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i\u2019ye, 11 Nisan 2020\u2019de, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye sevginizden hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphemiz yok, Mr. Moore! Organize k\u00f6t\u00fcl\u00fck her yerdedir, ancak T\u00fcrk insan\u0131 her zaman kimin dostu oldu\u011funu bilir!\u201d diye \u015faklaban bir tivit att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ben \u015fahsen unutmam.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancak ilkel toplumlar ya da s\u00f6m\u00fcrge \u00fclkelerin \u00e7aresiz halklar\u0131 yabanc\u0131 devletlerin \u201ckurtar\u0131c\u0131\u201d diye parlatt\u0131klar\u0131 adamlar\u0131n pe\u015finden giderler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen Saray\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Alt\u0131l\u0131 Masa\u2019n\u0131n halk\u0131 soka\u011fa \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 olumlu bir geli\u015fmedir. Halk yolunu sokakta bulur. Bir dizi ara evreden ge\u00e7ilecek, her evre mevcut gerici ve bask\u0131c\u0131 yap\u0131y\u0131 biraz daha \u00e7\u00f6zecek, ortaya yeni g\u00fc\u00e7ler ve kimsenin \u00f6ng\u00f6remedi\u011fi bir dizi sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kacak, her \u015feyin nas\u0131l \u00e7ok g\u00fczel olaca\u011f\u0131 zamanla daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda bir uyan\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecidir.  \u015eimdilik siyas\u00ee \u0130slamc\u0131 diktat\u00f6rl\u00fckten daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir se\u00e7enek yoktur. Bertaraf edilmesi gereken tehdit ve tehlike s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda Saray birinci s\u0131rada, Alt\u0131l\u0131 Masa ise ikinci s\u0131rada yer almaktad\u0131r. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 16. 12. 2022<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan         Nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bilinmeyen birden \u00e7ok e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olay\u0131n etkile\u015ferek   ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen duruma belirsizlik diyoruz.         Belirsizlik durumunda birbirinin yolunu kesmeye ya da a\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, politik iradelerini farkl\u0131 siyas\u00ee hayat ko\u015fullar\u0131nda olu\u015fturmu\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin konumunu ve h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetlerinin olaylar\u0131 etkileme derecesini \u00f6l\u00e7emezsiniz. Bir bak\u0131ma bu, Alman fizik\u00e7i Werner Heisenberg\u2019in \u201cbelirsizlik … <\/p>\n

Continue reading ”\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0HER \u015eEY \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00c7OK MU G\u00dcZEL OLACAK?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1266"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1266\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1268,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1266\/revisions\/1268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}