{"id":1251,"date":"2022-12-02T09:46:03","date_gmt":"2022-12-02T07:46:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1251"},"modified":"2022-12-02T09:46:03","modified_gmt":"2022-12-02T07:46:03","slug":"kara-harekati","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1251","title":{"rendered":"KARA HAREK\u00c2TI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u015fgal ya da imha amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan klasik asker\u00ee taarruz hava bombard\u0131man\u0131 ve top\u00e7u ate\u015fiyle ba\u015flar. Bunu izlemesi gereken kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ne kadar gecikirse d\u00fc\u015fmana tahrip olan tahkimatlar\u0131n\u0131 yenilemesi i\u00e7in o kadar f\u0131rsat verilmi\u015f olur ve kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda taarruz eden g\u00fc\u00e7lerin   zayiat\u0131 artar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Klasik sava\u015fta s\u00fcrpriz unsuru \u00f6nemlidir. Bu y\u00fczden taktik hedefler, asker\u00ee y\u00f6ntemler ve y\u0131\u011f\u0131nak yerleri genellikle gizli tutulur, hatta \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaca yap\u0131l\u0131r. Ba\u015fkomutan\u2019\u0131n \u201cu\u00e7aklarla, toplarla, S\u0130HA\u2019larla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z operasyonlar sadece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7\u201d dedikten sonra, \u201cTel R\u0131fat, M\u00fcnbi\u00e7, Ayn el-Arap gibi yerlerden ba\u015flayarak ad\u0131m ad\u0131m halledece\u011fiz,\u201d demesi al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f bir tutumdur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Ekonomide oldu\u011fu gibi askeriyede de Saray\u2019\u0131n neoklasik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceden epistemolojik bir kopu\u015fu temsil eden heterodoks bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsedi\u011fini anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Burada sadele\u015ftirme gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda bir g\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturarak PKK\/PYD\u2019yi g\u00fcneye do\u011fru s\u00fcp\u00fcrmek, M\u00fcnbi\u00e7\u2019ten Kam\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u2019ya kadar uzunlu\u011fu 440 km. derinli\u011fi 32 km. olan bir tampon b\u00f6lge a\u00e7mak, ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ter\u00f6r tehdidi tamamen ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra Suriye denetimine terk edilmek \u00fczere bu b\u00f6lgede karakol kurmak istemesi me\u015frudur. Diplomatik deme\u00e7lere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda bu giri\u015fimin, ABD, Rusya ve b\u00f6lge devletleri taraf\u0131ndan da ge\u00e7ici bir \u00f6nlem olarak me\u015fru kabul edilece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Fakat bu g\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda kaymakamlar\u0131, imamlar\u0131, \u00f6\u011fretmenleri T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan atanan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcniversiteleri ve yerel y\u00f6netimleri olan, g\u00fcvenli\u011fini Mill\u00ee Suriye Ordusu denilen TSK\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cvekil\u201d g\u00fcc\u00fcn sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yap\u0131 kurmak, Suriyeli g\u00f6\u00e7menleri TOK\u0130\u2019nin bu b\u00f6lgede in\u015fa edece\u011fi 200 m. karelik bah\u00e7eli evlere yerle\u015ftirmek me\u015fru de\u011fildir. Egemen Suriye devletinin topraklar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fgal ve ilhak anlam\u0131na gelir. Diplomatik deme\u00e7lere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu giri\u015fimin ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelenin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, ABD, Rusya ve b\u00f6lge devletleri taraf\u0131ndan me\u015fru kabul edilmeyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        G\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in Suriye devletiyle anla\u015fmak, Ruslar\u0131 ve \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131 ikna etmek, giri\u015fimin ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu konusunda onlara sa\u011flam bir g\u00fcvence vermek ve ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcdahale etmemesini ya da edememesini sa\u011flamak zorunludur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6lgede idar\u00ee olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir S\u00fcnn\u00ee n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in  ise ABD\u2019yi ikna etmek, ABD\u2019nin Ruslar\u0131 ve \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131 b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131kararak Suriye\u2019yi b\u00f6lme  stratejisine fiilen kat\u0131lmak, Suriye ordusuyla sava\u015fmay\u0131 ve \u015eubat 2020\u2019de 33 askerimizin \u015fehit d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Rus hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 gibi olaylar\u0131n tekrar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ze almak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birinci durumda (sadece asker\u00ee tampon) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130dlib b\u00f6lgesinde yuvalanan, ba\u015fta HT\u015e olmak \u00fczere b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0130slamc\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleriyle ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 en az\u0131ndan asgari d\u00fczeye indirmesi, Suriye ordusu ve Ruslar\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgeyi temizlemesine sessiz kalmas\u0131 gerekir. ABD, b\u00f6lgenin tamam\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirerek kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn imhas\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131, Suriye, Rusya ve \u0130ran askeriyesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fi i\u00e7in bunu istemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kinci durum (n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131) ise b\u00f6lgedeki b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0130slamc\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerine bir s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak sa\u011flayacak, g\u00fcneyimizi zamanla \u00fclke i\u00e7ine do\u011fru sarkan ve etkilerini Kafkasya ve Hazar b\u00f6lgesinden Asya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7lerine kadar yayan bir  Pe\u015faver\u2019e ya da Fergana vadisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrecektir.  Rusya, \u0130ran ve \u00c7in bunu istemez. ABD ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede \u00f6zerk ya da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir PKK\/PYD devlet\u00e7i\u011fine raz\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131yla ve uzun vadeli stratejisine ters d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in bunu ister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ge\u00e7erken \u015funu da belirtmek gerekir ki g\u00fcneye do\u011fru yap\u0131lacak \/belki de yap\u0131lmayacak ya da nas\u0131l yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiden \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen   bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131, ABD\u2019nin asker\u00ee deste\u011finde ve siyas\u00ee himayesinde olan PKK\/PYD\u2019nin imhas\u0131n\u0131 kesinlikle sa\u011flamaz.  ABD\u2019nin bu \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc desteklemekten vazge\u00e7mesi, ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131yla ya da b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7ler dengesinin Yankee\u2019nin bu t\u00fcrden  paral\u0131 bir petrol bek\u00e7isine, taktik bir kuvvete  art\u0131k ihtiya\u00e7 duymayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peki Saray ne istiyor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunu bilmiyoruz. Bildi\u011fimiz tek \u015fey \u015fudur: ABD ve Rusya\u2019yla \u015fu anda olanca hararetiyle devam eden pazarl\u0131k sona ermedik\u00e7e kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 yap\u0131lmayacakt\u0131r. Kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flarsa, iki b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn kabul etti\u011fi ya da birinin kabul edip di\u011ferinin kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\/\u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131 bir form\u00fcl\u00fcn bulundu\u011funu anlayaca\u011f\u0131z. Asker\u00ee harek\u00e2ta a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede angaje olan Saray\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7imlerde eli kuvvetlensin diye g\u00f6steri niteli\u011finde bir hareket yapmas\u0131na izin verilmesi de zay\u0131f olmakla birlikte bir ihtimaldir.   Hi\u00e7bir form\u00fcl bulunmadan ya da pazarl\u0131k sonu\u00e7lanmadan yap\u0131lacak bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ise tehlikeli bir kumar olacakt\u0131r.  Bir ordu i\u00e7in en zor durum siyas\u00eelerin pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve karar\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f durumunda s\u00fcrekli \u015fehit vererek beklemektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asker\u00ee karar iktidar partisine de\u011fil Devlet\u2019e (bu ikisi ayn\u0131 \u015fey de\u011fildir) ba\u011fl\u0131 diplomatlar\u0131n ve asker\u00ee uzmanlar\u0131n   her t\u00fcrl\u00fc g\u00fcncel politik kayg\u0131dan uzak analizleri dikkate al\u0131narak haz\u0131rlanacak ve yasama meclisinde onaylanacak bir Mill\u00ee G\u00fcvenlik Belgesi temelinde siyas\u00ee toplumun mutabakat\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde halk\u0131 co\u015fturup se\u00e7men taban\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in silahla oynamak, \u00f6nce ate\u015f edip sonra ni\u015fan alarak oyun kurmak ya da sonsuz pazarl\u0131k yan\u0131lsamas\u0131na kap\u0131larak her hamleden sonra \u201cdur bakal\u0131m \u015fimdi ne diyecekler\u201d diye beklemek ve zorunlu ittifaklar\u0131 kurmadan, sa\u011flam g\u00fcvence almadan ar\u0131 kovan\u0131na \u00e7omak sokmak felakete davetiye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 02. 12. 2022    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan \u0130\u015fgal ya da imha amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan klasik asker\u00ee taarruz hava bombard\u0131man\u0131 ve top\u00e7u ate\u015fiyle ba\u015flar. Bunu izlemesi gereken kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ne kadar gecikirse d\u00fc\u015fmana tahrip olan tahkimatlar\u0131n\u0131 yenilemesi i\u00e7in o kadar f\u0131rsat verilmi\u015f olur ve kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda taarruz eden g\u00fc\u00e7lerin   zayiat\u0131 artar.         Klasik sava\u015fta s\u00fcrpriz unsuru \u00f6nemlidir. Bu y\u00fczden taktik hedefler, … <\/p>\n

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