{"id":1241,"date":"2022-11-20T10:12:39","date_gmt":"2022-11-20T08:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1241"},"modified":"2022-11-20T10:12:39","modified_gmt":"2022-11-20T08:12:39","slug":"nufus-patlamasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1241","title":{"rendered":"N\u00dcFUS PATLAMASI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Bizden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n \u201cd\u00fcnya\u201d ismini verdikleri gezegenimiz 4,5 milyar y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00fcne\u015ften ve uzay par\u00e7ac\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gazlar ve metallerle yo\u011frularak s\u00fcrekli d\u00f6nen bir ate\u015f topu gibi uzay bo\u015flu\u011funda yer ald\u0131.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Homo sapiens\u2019in  meyve toplamak i\u00e7in do\u011frulmas\u0131ndan bu yana  sadece 2 milyon y\u0131l, b\u00fcy\u00fck kentlerin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana ise sadece 5000 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. Yani burada hen\u00fcz yeni say\u0131l\u0131r\u0131z. Uzay fizik\u00e7ilerinin hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde daha 7,5 milyar y\u0131l var. \u00c7ok zahmetli ge\u00e7ece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lan bu s\u00fcrenin sonunda g\u00fcne\u015f bizi yutacak, b\u00f6ylece huzura kavu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.  Daha \u015fimdiden yakla\u015f\u0131k 110 milyar insan ya\u015fay\u0131p \u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceleri yava\u015ft\u0131. 16. y\u00fczy\u0131lda istikrar kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.  18. y\u00fczy\u0131lda sanayi devrimiyle, \u00f6zellikle tar\u0131m\u0131n makinele\u015fmesiyle h\u0131zland\u0131.   1789 Frans\u0131z Devrimi s\u0131ras\u0131nda bir milyara yak\u0131nd\u0131. Napoleon Sava\u015flar\u0131 (1803-1815) s\u0131ras\u0131nda bir milyar\u0131 biraz ge\u00e7ti. Lenin\u2019in Petrograd\u2019\u0131n Finlandiya \u0130stasyonu\u2019na ayak bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 (1917) ve Mustafa Kemal\u2019in Band\u0131rma Vapuru\u2019ndan Samsun\u2019daki t\u00fct\u00fcn iskelesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 (1919)   d\u00fcnyada   yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 milyar 800 milyon insan ya\u015f\u0131yordu. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n kaderini de\u011fi\u015ftiren \u0130spanyol \u0130\u00e7 Sava\u015f\u0131 (1936-1939) ve Hitler\u2019in Polonya\u2019ya sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 (1939) s\u0131ralarda 2 milyar\u0131 biraz ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        B\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfus patlamas\u0131 sava\u015ftan sonra oldu. S\u00fcrekli artan refah  bat\u0131da \u201cBaby Boomer\u201d denilen ve  1946-1964 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyaya gelen huzursuz ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ortal\u0131\u011fa sald\u0131. Bizim ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n (d\u00fcnya tarihinin en f\u0131rlama ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131!) huzursuzlu\u011fu, iki arada bir derede kalm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 varolu\u015f sorunlar\u0131 devam ederken (k\u00f6m\u00fcr sobas\u0131ndan kalorifere, faytondan metroya, transist\u00f6rl\u00fc radyodan internete, analogdan dijitale, \u015fiddet yoluyla d\u00fcnyay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme idealinden kapitalizmin her deli\u011fe girerek b\u00fct\u00fcn k\u00fclt\u00fcrlere n\u00fcfuz etti\u011fi yavan k\u00fcresel k\u00f6ye do\u011fru) d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu s\u00fcrekli artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00fcfus tarih boyunca s\u0131\u00e7ramalarla artt\u0131… Bir milyara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 1800\u2019den 130 y\u0131l sonra (1930) iki milyara,  30 y\u0131l sonra (1960)  \u00fc\u00e7 milyara, 15 y\u0131l sonra (1974) d\u00f6rt milyara ve 13 y\u0131l sonra (1987)  be\u015f milyara ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milyar n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusa eklenme s\u00fcresi k\u0131sald\u0131k\u00e7a insanlar kayg\u0131lanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar.  Do\u011fum kontrol\u00fc, aile planlamas\u0131 gibi \u00e7abalar 1960\u2019larda ba\u015flad\u0131, toplumsal kalk\u0131nma ve refah planlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmez maddesini olu\u015fturdu. Bizde de 1963-1967 y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan Birinci Be\u015f Y\u0131ll\u0131k Kalk\u0131nma Plan\u0131 d\u00f6neminde n\u00fcfus\/aile planlamas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.  Fakat 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, planlamayla birlikte terk edildi. Daha iri ve daha diri olmam\u0131z i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7ocuk yapmam\u0131z tavsiye edildi; bununla da kal\u0131nmad\u0131, sekiz milyon muhacirun \u00fclkemize h\u00fccum ederek h\u0131zla \u00fcremeye ve demografik dengemizi bozmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neyse, konuyu da\u011f\u0131tmayal\u0131m\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nihayet Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce (15 Kas\u0131m 2022) d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 8 milyar\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etti. Asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck olay! Son 11 y\u0131lda bir milyar insan do\u011fmu\u015f.  D\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda toplam \u00f6l\u00fcmlerin, toplam do\u011fumlar\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131m https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/world-population\/<\/a> sadece bug\u00fcn, \u015fu erken saatte 121 800 ki\u015finin do\u011fdu\u011funu, 61 600 ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildiriyor.  Trend d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun s\u0131\u00e7rayarak art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elbette bu dengeli bir art\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Nitekim bilim adamlar\u0131 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 11,2 milyar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Afrika\u2019da n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 256, Asya\u2019da y\u00fczde 6, Latin Amerika\u2019da y\u00fczde 10, Okyanusya\u2019da y\u00fczde 75 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fakat Avrupa\u2019da y\u00fczde 10 azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do\u011fal olarak insan\u0131n akl\u0131na n\u00fcfus bilimci ve iktisat\u00e7\u0131 Thomas R. Malthus\u2019un 19. y\u00fczy\u0131lda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biraz abart\u0131l\u0131 kehanet geliyor: g\u0131da maddelerinin aritmetik, n\u00fcfusun ise geometrik art\u0131\u015f\u0131, sonunda insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7l\u0131\u011fa ve felakete s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek.  Tar\u0131ma ay\u0131rmalar\u0131 gereken parayla \u00fcrettikleri silahlar\u0131 ve kent i\u00e7i yollar\u0131 t\u0131kayan otomobilleri yiyemeyeceklerine g\u00f6re sonunda birbirlerini yiyecekler.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kontrols\u00fcz n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n iklim krizinin etkilerini a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rarak g\u0131da ve enerji gibi k\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131n rasyonel kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, do\u011fudan ve g\u00fcneyden bat\u0131ya ve kuzeye do\u011fru ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel sistemlerin da\u011f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, karar mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n bozulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yerel sava\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, eski yeni b\u00fct\u00fcn ideolojilerin radikalle\u015fece\u011fini, b\u00fcy\u00fck devrimlerin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her vas\u0131tan\u0131n -eski deyimle- bir istiap haddi, yani ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesi vard\u0131r. Elli ki\u015filik otob\u00fcse 150 ki\u015fiyi zorla bindirebilirsiniz fakat yolcular aras\u0131nda sorun \u00e7\u0131kar.  Gezegenimizin de insanlar ile kaynaklar aras\u0131ndaki optimal dengenin g\u00f6zetilmesini gerektiren bir ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesi vard\u0131r mutlaka.  H\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu kapasiteyi zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fik\u00e2r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00fcfus patlamas\u0131 ya\u015fayan bir d\u00fcnyada giderek k\u0131tla\u015fan do\u011fal kaynaklara sahip olmak ve sisteme a\u00e7\u0131lan yeni pazarlar\u0131 birbirine ba\u011flayan g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 kontrol etmek i\u00e7in verilen bir payla\u015f\u0131m m\u00fccadelesi olarak patlak veren Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131 ve Anglosakson-\u00c7in rekabeti yak\u0131n gelecekte d\u00fcnyan\u0131n nas\u0131l bir yer olaca\u011f\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veriyor.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pandemi de \u00f6nemli bir ipucu verdi. Bitkilerin ve hayvanlar\u0131n do\u011fal ortam\u0131na ta\u015fan insan yerle\u015fimlerinin do\u011fan\u0131n dengesini nas\u0131l bozdu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.  Pandeminin en \u015fiddetli oldu\u011fu, enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fcretim ve nakliyenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u0131rada  NASA b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada hava kalitesinin \u00c7in\u2019den ba\u015flayarak d\u00fczelmekte oldu\u011funu, belirli bir olay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geni\u015f bir alanda azot dioksit seviyesinde b\u00f6ylesine keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do\u011fan\u0131n vir\u00fcs sayesinde insan\u0131 durdurmaya, geriletmeye, bozulan dengesini yeniden kurmaya, yenilenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fark ettik. \u0130nsanlar kontrols\u00fcz \u00e7o\u011fal\u0131p i\u00e7i i\u00e7e ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e ba\u015fka vir\u00fcslerin koronan\u0131n b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revi devralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, insan yine de rahat durmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 taktirde do\u011fan\u0131n onu s\u0131rt\u0131ndan ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitkilere ve hayvanlara yer a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in insan n\u00fcfusunun do\u011fum kontrol\u00fcyle azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, tekil \u00fclkelerin ekonomik ve toplumsal kalk\u0131nma planlar\u0131 yaparak kendi aralar\u0131nda e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm sa\u011flamalar\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n imha edilmesi ve iklim krizinin durdurulmas\u0131; b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n olabilmesi i\u00e7in de yeni bir Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi\u2019nin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. Fakat her \u015feyden \u00f6nce s\u0131radan insan d\u00fcnyay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme azim ve kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eu g\u00fcne\u015fli pazar g\u00fcn\u00fcnde herkesi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 7,5 milyar y\u0131l\u0131n nas\u0131l ge\u00e7ece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye davet ediyorum. Neler yapmay\u0131 tasarl\u0131yorsunuz?  Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 20. 11. 2022  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan         Bizden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n \u201cd\u00fcnya\u201d ismini verdikleri gezegenimiz 4,5 milyar y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00fcne\u015ften ve uzay par\u00e7ac\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gazlar ve metallerle yo\u011frularak s\u00fcrekli d\u00f6nen bir ate\u015f topu gibi uzay bo\u015flu\u011funda yer ald\u0131.    Homo sapiens\u2019in  meyve toplamak i\u00e7in do\u011frulmas\u0131ndan bu yana  sadece 2 milyon y\u0131l, b\u00fcy\u00fck kentlerin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana ise sadece … <\/p>\n

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