{"id":1132,"date":"2022-07-22T08:40:46","date_gmt":"2022-07-22T06:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1132"},"modified":"2022-07-22T08:40:46","modified_gmt":"2022-07-22T06:40:46","slug":"tukidides-tuzagi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1132","title":{"rendered":"TUK\u0130D\u0130DES TUZA\u011eI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Kapitalizmin d\u00f6nemsel (devrev\u00ee) krizleri sava\u015flara yol a\u00e7ar.  Ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen, daha fazla enerji kullanan g\u00fc\u00e7ler yeni pazarlara ula\u015fmak, fosil yak\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmek, ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 denetlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce silahlan\u0131rlar, sonra blokla\u015f\u0131rlar ve nihayet sava\u015fa tutu\u015furlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni kurmak, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurtarmak ve y\u00fcceltmek, y\u00fcksek milliyet\u00e7i ideallerle hak ve toprak taleplerinde bulunmak, ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde ya\u015fayan \u0131rkda\u015flar\u0131 birle\u015ftirmek gibi bahanelerin alt\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin zenginle\u015fme ve h\u00fckmetme ihtiraslar\u0131 yatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir sava\u015f sona erdi\u011finde asker\u00ee uzmanlar ve akademisyenler bir sonraki olas\u0131 sava\u015fa ili\u015fkin analizlere ba\u015flarlar; ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan ders \u00e7\u0131kararak sava\u015fa yol a\u00e7an kriz \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerini (patterns) saptamaya, teorile\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Sava\u015f teknolojileri bar\u0131\u015f zamanlar\u0131nda geli\u015ftirilir ve bir sonraki sava\u015f\u0131n strateji ve taktiklerini belirler. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7abas\u0131 her zaman gelecek sava\u015fta kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaklar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 \u00f6nceden saptamakt\u0131r. Buna \u201ctehdit de\u011ferlendirmesi\u201d denir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeni bir emperyalist g\u00fcc\u00fcn ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 mevcut emperyalist g\u00fc\u00e7te tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131 ve korku yarat\u0131r. Amerikal\u0131 akademisyen Graham Allison, tarihte bu \u015fablona uyan, on ikisi b\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015flara yol a\u00e7an on alt\u0131 durum saptam\u0131\u015f ve bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcye \u201cTukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201d demi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuza\u011f\u0131 ke\u015ffeden tarih\u00e7i Tukidides  M\u00d6 5. y\u00fczy\u0131lda  Atina ile Sparta aras\u0131nda y\u0131llarca s\u00fcren, b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131ma yol a\u00e7an Peleponnes Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yazarken, \u201cAtina\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve bunun Sparta\u2019ya a\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 korku  sava\u015f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131ld\u0131,\u201d demi\u015ftir. Tukides, kapitalizmin d\u00f6nemsel krizlerinden, pazar payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve k\u0131t enerji kaynaklar\u0131 gibi durumlardan do\u011fal olarak haberdar olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, devletler korku ve tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tuza\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fmezlerse sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131nman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Ancak bu eksiklik \u201cTukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201d hipotezinin evrensel de\u011ferini azaltmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nitekim ABD, 1991\u2019de Sovyetler Birli\u011fi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131nca kendisine potansiyel bir \u201cTukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201d aramaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 9\/11\u2019den sonra do\u011frudan hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130slam\u00ee ter\u00f6rizm, dolayl\u0131 olarak yok etmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Arap Baas milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fi, Yankee emperyalizminin boy \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi \u201ce\u015fde\u011fer\u201d rakipler de\u011fildi. Amerikal\u0131, gelece\u011fin d\u00fc\u015fman g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak \u00f6nce Japonya\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcne kestirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarih\u00e7i Paul Kennedy\u2019nin 1987\u2019de yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fc\u00e7lerin Y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/em>   bu konuda gerekli analizi sa\u011fl\u0131yordu: ABD  ekonomik olarak zay\u0131flarken, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc temelinde muazzam bir ekonomik performans g\u00f6steren Japonya h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor, kendi b\u00f6lgesel pazarlar\u0131n\u0131 yarat\u0131yordu.  Asker\u00ee strateji uzman\u0131 \u0130ngiliz akademisyen Lawrence Freedman, buradaki mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na ve Japonlar\u0131n Pearl Harbor bask\u0131n\u0131na yol a\u00e7an mant\u0131kla ayn\u0131 oldu\u011funu saptad\u0131 (Lawrence 2017, s.265, Penguin UK).   Hatta o s\u0131rada (1991) George Friedman ile Meredith Lebard, The Coming War with Japan<\/em> (Japonya\u2019yla Yakla\u015fan Sava\u015f) ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir kitap yazarak, Avrupa korumac\u0131 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019yi d\u0131\u015flayarak kendi b\u00f6lgesel pazar\u0131n\u0131 yaratmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin buna asker\u00ee olarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia ettiler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bat\u0131 emperyalizminin strateji uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n o s\u0131rada g\u00f6remedikleri geli\u015fme, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n imalat teknolojisini Kom\u00fcnist Parti y\u00f6netiminde h\u0131zla kapitalizme ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in sab\u0131rs\u0131zlanan \u00c7in\u2019e aktarmakta olu\u015fuydu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekim 1978\u2019de Deng \u015eiaoping 2000 y\u0131ld\u0131r Japonya\u2019y\u0131 ziyaret eden ilk \u00c7inli lider olmu\u015ftu.  \u00c7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alan \u201cDemir Pirin\u00e7 K\u00e2sesi\u201dni k\u0131rarak tar\u0131m kolektiflerini yok etmeyi, sanayi merkezlerine ve serbest b\u00f6lgelere s\u00fcr\u00fclen emek\u00e7ileri yabanc\u0131 kapitalist \u015firketlere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede s\u00f6m\u00fcrtmeyi ama\u00e7layan \u201cD\u00f6rt Modernle\u015fme\u201d program\u0131n\u0131 1980\u2019lerde \u00c7KP\u2019ye kabul ettirecek olan Deng \u015eiaoping, Japonlardan modern teknoloji ve i\u015fletme y\u00f6ntemleri hakk\u0131nda bir \u015feyler \u00f6\u011frenmek istiyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deng, Japonya\u2019da, \u201c\u00c7in halk\u0131, \u00fczerine sadece g\u00fczel giysiler giyerek g\u00fczelle\u015fmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00e7irkin bir insan\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapmayacak,\u201d dedi. \u201cGeride kalm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclkeyiz ve Japonya\u2019y\u0131 \u00f6rnek almam\u0131z gerekiyor.\u201d (akt. Ezra Vogel 2017, s. 305, ModusKitap).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in gezisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda Deng, Kimitsu \u00c7elik fabrikas\u0131 ile Matsusita fabrikalar\u0131nda incelemelerde bulundu. Japonlar teknik imalat bilgilerini ve i\u015fletme y\u00f6ntemlerini \u00c7inlilere verdiler ve Japonya\u2019daki fabrikalar\u0131n birebir kopyas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretime ba\u015flad\u0131 (Vogel, agy). O s\u0131rada \u00c7KP\u2019nin 31 Ocak 1979\u2019da toplanan \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Plenumu ilk yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na onay vermi\u015fti.  D\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn kapitalist \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketleri  bu yeni ucuz emek cennetine \u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u00c7in ekonomisi y\u0131lda 12-13 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u015flad\u0131;  sermayenin getirisi \u00c7in\u2019de 30 ile 40, ABD\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 7 kadard\u0131 (W. Greider 2003, s. 211, \u0130mge KY)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u00c7in tipi sosyalizm\u201d denilen bu kapitalist karma ekonomi modeli sayesinde \u00c7in zamanla ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmeye, sermaye ihra\u00e7 etmeye, kendi halk\u0131n\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n az geli\u015fmi\u015f b\u00f6lgelerinde ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc aramaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve nihayet b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada ulus-devletlerin neo-Keynesyen iktisat politikas\u0131 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdikleri bir s\u0131rada k\u00fcreselle\u015fme bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 devrald\u0131.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu da\u011f\u0131tan, \u0130slam\u00ee ter\u00f6rizmle u\u011fra\u015fan ve Japonya\u2019y\u0131 \u201ce\u015fde\u011fer rakip\u201d olarak g\u00f6ren ABD, ans\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fckselen \u00c7in kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda deh\u015fete kap\u0131ld\u0131 ve \u201cTukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201dn\u0131n dibine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABD, 1991\u2019den sonra oligar\u015fik ya\u011fmac\u0131 burjuvaziye yaslanan eski KGB y\u00f6neticilerinin Rusya\u2019y\u0131 Ortodoks Rus \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131 modelinde yeniden toparlay\u0131p s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmeye, s\u00fcrekli geni\u015fleyen ve \u00fcst\u00fcne gelen NATO\u2019yu b\u00f6lmeye, enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 ABD\u2019den ay\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, n\u00fckleer cephaneli\u011fini kullanarak geni\u015fleyen Bat\u0131 ittifak\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edebilece\u011fini de hesaplayamad\u0131. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de \u00f6ng\u00f6rememi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u015eimdi \u201cTukidides Tuza\u011f\u0131\u201dna d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bir ABD, emperyal g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak  \u201cdolayl\u0131 tutum\u201d stratejisiyle sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131narak ABD\u2019nin yerini almaya haz\u0131rlanan bir \u00c7in ve Ukrayna fiyaskosu y\u00fcz\u00fcnden gururu k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f tehlikeli bir n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak Rusya var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn de b\u00fcy\u00fck insanl\u0131\u011fa ve onun gelece\u011fine zerre kadar faydas\u0131, vah\u015fi  ve bencil (kendi halk\u0131n\u0131n refah\u0131n\u0131 son tahlilde mevcut iktidar\u0131 ayakta tutabilecek kadar g\u00f6zeten) kapitalizmden ba\u015fka bir ideolojisi  yoktur. Yaratt\u0131klar\u0131 tablo tipik bir emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00f6zelliklerini ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu sava\u015f\u0131n II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 gibi \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu\u201d bir sava\u015f olarak neticelenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok azd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00fckleer d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyecek olan, \u00c7in\u2019in kadim bilgeli\u011fi ve Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin tarihsel tecr\u00fcbeleridir.  B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lere, reel politi\u011fin gerektirdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mesafeli duramayan zay\u0131f ulus-devletlerin gelece\u011fi yoktur. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerden birine yaslanarak politika geli\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, onlar\u0131n d\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6tt\u00fcrerek propaganda yapan siyas\u00ee olu\u015fumlar ise kendi vatanlar\u0131na ihanet etmi\u015f olurlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00fcrecin nas\u0131l geli\u015fece\u011fi, ittifaklar\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi, saflar\u0131n nas\u0131l bozulup yeniden olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 kesinlikle \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez. Her tekil \u00fclke halk\u0131n\u0131n sosyal refah devleti aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeni ideolojik olu\u015fumlara, kapitalist emperyalizmle m\u00fccadele programlar\u0131na; en \u00f6nemlisi, kendili\u011finden ba\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fck kitle hareketlerine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Yoksulu kurtaracak olan kendi kollar\u0131d\u0131r.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toplamda g\u00f6r\u00fclen karga\u015fa, \u00e7evre felaketlerini \u00f6nleyecek, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00f6\u00e7men\/s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131 ak\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 durduracak ve nihayet n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 imha edip yeniden \u00fcretilmelerini yasaklayacak, e\u015fitlik\u00e7i bir yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni kuruluncaya kadar devam edecektir. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 22. 07. 2022 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          Kapitalizmin d\u00f6nemsel (devrev\u00ee) krizleri sava\u015flara yol a\u00e7ar.  Ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcyen, daha fazla enerji kullanan g\u00fc\u00e7ler yeni pazarlara ula\u015fmak, fosil yak\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irmek, ticaret yollar\u0131n\u0131 denetlemek i\u00e7in \u00f6nce silahlan\u0131rlar, sonra blokla\u015f\u0131rlar ve nihayet sava\u015fa tutu\u015furlar. Yeni bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni kurmak, insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurtarmak ve y\u00fcceltmek, y\u00fcksek milliyet\u00e7i ideallerle hak ve toprak taleplerinde bulunmak, ba\u015fka … <\/p>\n

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