{"id":1081,"date":"2022-04-01T10:16:20","date_gmt":"2022-04-01T08:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1081"},"modified":"2022-04-01T10:17:18","modified_gmt":"2022-04-01T08:17:18","slug":"uyarilar-ve-ara-sonuclar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1081","title":{"rendered":"UYARILAR VE ARA SONU\u00c7LAR"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrayna i\u015fgalinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 24 \u015eubat\u2019tan hemen \u00f6nce ve sonra Putin y\u00f6netimine, biri T\u00fcm Rusya Subaylar Meclisi\u2019nden, di\u011feri ise SSCB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra legal faaliyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nden olmak \u00fczere, iki uyar\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Her iki uyar\u0131 da Ukrayna i\u015fgalinin sa\u011flam bir gerek\u00e7eye dayanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu sava\u015f\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu, asker\u00ee giri\u015fimin Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik ve siyas\u00ee bak\u0131mdan tecrit edilmesine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fclkeyi i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fckleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Askerlerin bildirisinde, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 esas tehdit demografik bozulma (\u201csistematiktir ve t\u00fcm sistemin \u00e7\u00f6kmesine yol a\u00e7abilir\u201d), s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan devlet modeli, yetersiz iktidar ve y\u00f6netim sistemi, eksik profesyonellik, pasif ve d\u00fczensiz toplum  (i\u00e7 tehdit) olarak saptand\u0131; ve \u201c\u00fclke liderli\u011fi\u201dnin,  \u201c\u00fclkeyi sistemik krizden \u00e7\u0131karamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu durumun oligar\u015finin de deste\u011fiyle halk\u0131n ayaklanmas\u0131na ve \u00fclkede iktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini anlayarak\u201d harekete ge\u00e7ti\u011fi  belirtildi (i\u00e7 sorunlarla y\u00fczle\u015fmekten \u201cileri ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Askerlerin bildirisi,  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n K\u0131r\u0131m ve Sivastopol\u2019\u00fcn kendisine ait oldu\u011funu d\u00fcnyaya kabul ettirememesini Rus d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirdi ve i\u015fgal giri\u015fiminin d\u00f6rt sonu\u00e7 verebilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc: devlet olarak Rusya\u2019n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulanacakt\u0131r; Rus ve Ukraynal\u0131 sonsuza kadar can d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 olacakt\u0131r; her iki \u00fclkenin demografik durumu olumsuz etkilenecektir;  Rus ordusu sahada NATO asker\u00ee personeli ve te\u00e7hizat\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak ve NATO \u00fcyeleri bunu ilan etmek zorunda kalacaklard\u0131r  (sava\u015f\u0131n geni\u015fleme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131). (Bildirinin en yakla\u015f\u0131k t\u00fcrk\u00e7e terc\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in bkz. barandergisi.net, 06. 02.22)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bildiride imzas\u0131 olan General Leonid Gregoryevi\u00e7 \u0130va\u015fov\u2019un biyografisi, kendisinin ve imzac\u0131lar\u0131n NATO ajan\u0131, \u201cAtlantik\u00e7i\u201d gibi bir \u015fey olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymakta; Putin\u2019in onlar\u0131 hemen tutuklay\u0131p elektronik prangaya vurmamas\u0131 da bu askerlerin Rus devleti nezdinde etkili olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir; Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131n\u0131n bu bildiriyi yorumlamaya tenezz\u00fcl etmemesi ise m\u00e2nidard\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin bildirisine g\u00f6re, asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t\u0131n ertesi g\u00fcn\u00fc (25 \u015eubat)  Zelenskiy Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k stat\u00fcs\u00fcyle ilgili m\u00fczakerelere ba\u015flamay\u0131 \u00f6nerdi, bu \u00fclkenin NATO\u2019ya girme \u00f6nerisi zaten kabul g\u00f6rmemi\u015fti,  dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Putin\u2019in \u201cesas ko\u015fulu\u201d Ukrayna taraf\u0131nca yerine getirildi fakat Zelenskiy\u2019nin m\u00fczakere \u00f6nerisinden birka\u00e7 saat sonra Lavrov, asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t\u0131n \u201cUkraynal\u0131lar\u0131 bask\u0131dan kurtarmak ve kendi geleceklerini tayin etmeleri\u201d i\u00e7in ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve m\u00fczakerelerin ancak \u201cUkrayna ordusunun tamamen teslim olmas\u0131ndan sonra\u201d ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini ilan etti; \u00c7in\u2019in Rusya\u2019dan asker\u00ee harek\u00e2ta derhal son vermesini talep etmesinden sonra Putin y\u00f6netimi \u00e7ark ederek, \u201cUkrayna\u2019n\u0131n tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fczakereye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu\u201dnu ilan etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         KP\u2019nin bildirisi, T\u00fcm Rusya Subaylar Meclisi\u2019ni, \u201cyak\u0131n i\u015fbirli\u011fi i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fumuz\u201d diyerek a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a destekledi, askerlerin bildirisine sahip \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Rus kom\u00fcnistleri, \u201cRusya\u2019n\u0131n oligar\u015fik rejimi, prensipte, Ukrayna\u2019ya \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck getirmez\u201d diyerek, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgaliyle ba\u015flayan s\u00fcreci  de\u011ferlendirdiler: \u201cEn iyi durumda bile Rusya birle\u015fik bir Bat\u0131 ile \u015fu anda y\u00fczle\u015fmekten hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde muzaffer \u00e7\u0131kamaz; otuz y\u0131ll\u0131k \u2018reformlar\u2019\u0131n bir sonucu olarak, \u00fclkemizin ekonomik ve asker\u00ee potansiyeli kabul edilemez derecede k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u201d [c\u00fcmledeki iki ifadeyi d\u00fczelttim -Y.A].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Bat\u0131 ekipman\u0131na ve bile\u015fenlerine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Rusya ekonomisi i\u00e7in (\u2026) cidd\u00ee bir darbe\u201d oldu\u011funu belirten bildiriye g\u00f6re yeg\u00e2ne \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kabul etmesi, Donetsk ve Luhansk cumhuriyetlerinin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u201cve hatta belki K\u0131r\u0131m ve ona ba\u011flanan kara koridoru \u00fczerinden anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131\u201dd\u0131r (tam metin i\u00e7in bkz. SoL Portal, 03. 03. 22)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Bildirileri b\u0131rak\u0131p asker\u00ee duruma bakacak olursak, Rus Ordusu\u2019nun hedeflerine (Zelenskiy\u2019nin devrilmesi, Odessa al\u0131narak Karadeniz\u2019in kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, Kiev\u2019in ele ge\u00e7irilmesi) ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.  Ayr\u0131ca harek\u00e2t\u0131n geli\u015fimi Rus Genel Kurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131yla an\u0131lan \u201cGerasimov Doktrini\u201dne ters d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.  \u201cYumu\u015fak G\u00fc\u00e7\u201de (Soft Power) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren bu doktrin Rusya\u2019ya \u00f6zg\u00fc bir t\u00fcr \u201chibrit\u201d sava\u015f konsepti olu\u015fturuyordu. Z\u0131rhl\u0131 birlik manevras\u0131yla ba\u015flayan i\u015fgal harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131n giderek uzaktan tahrip sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, ku\u015fat\u0131lan b\u00f6lgelerde, \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcneyde ve do\u011fuda \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 katliama yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve i\u015fgal alan\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi durumunda bir t\u00fcr \u201cAyaklanmay\u0131 Bast\u0131rma Harek\u00e2t\u0131\u201dna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131 (strateji ve taktikler konusunda profesyonel asker\u00ee g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in bkz. Ahmet Yavuz, Nejat Eslen, Naim Bab\u00fcro\u011flu, Osman Aydo\u011fan analizleri ve sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Sava\u015f\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkilere gelince, en \u00f6nemlisi ku\u015fkusuz b\u00fct\u00fcn Bat\u0131 \u00e2leminin ABD-NATO liderli\u011finde birle\u015fmesidir (\u201cSonu\u00e7 olarak k\u00fcresel kutupla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famas\u0131 tamamlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r,\u201d Cem G\u00fcrdeniz). Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri ve Savunma Bakanl\u0131klar\u0131na h\u00e2kim olan neocon ekibin sald\u0131rgan politikalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, Kanada\u2019dan Almanya\u2019ya kadar yeni bir silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni bir asker\u00ee sevkiyat \/ mevzilenme s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019i, Bat\u0131\u2019yla erken hesapla\u015fma ya da uzla\u015fma aras\u0131nda karars\u0131z b\u0131rakt\u0131.    Slav kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 e\u011filimlerin hortlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131 (bunun ilk sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 muhtemelen Balkanlar\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclecek). Ukrayna sahas\u0131 bat\u0131l\u0131 maceraperestlere, Ortado\u011fulu cihat\u00e7\u0131lara, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc paral\u0131 askere serbest at\u0131\u015f sahas\u0131 ve e\u011fitim alan\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; Avrupa, Ortado\u011fu ve Asya\u2019da  orta vadede  g\u00f6r\u00fclecek \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc  ter\u00f6r dalgalar\u0131na  yeni bir fidelik olarak hizmete a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131.  En \u00f6nemlisi, hem ABD-Avrupa hem de \u00c7in, Rus konvansiyonel harek\u00e2t kabiliyetinin strateji taktik, ikmal lojistik ve istihbarat bak\u0131m\u0131ndan yetersiz ve kusurlu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Putin oligar\u015finin i\u00e7indeki karar verici kli\u011fin, hepsi meczup m\u00fcrteci  Aleksandr Dugin kadar u\u00e7uk-ka\u00e7\u0131k olmasa da (Kartaca\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 Roma\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 \/ ate\u015f, toz ve kan i\u00e7inde Babil Fahi\u015fesi\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 Slav \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu fikri vs)   imparatorluk zihniyetine sahip oldu\u011fu, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 1991\u2019de Bat\u0131\u2019ya teslim etti\u011fi emperyal alan\u0131 ve n\u00fcfuz b\u00f6lgelerini geri istedi\u011fi, \u201cvarolu\u015f sorunu\u201d kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda n\u00fckleer silah kullanmaktan \u00e7ekinmeyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Putin oligar\u015fisinin orta vadede a\u011f\u0131r bir fatura \u00f6deyece\u011fi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 belli bir ulus-devlet (imparatorluk de\u011fil!) olarak daha halk\u00e7\u0131 ve e\u015fitlik\u00e7i bir karma ekonomi ve sahici bir demokratik parlamenter   y\u00f6netimle yoluna devam edebilece\u011fi -bir  ihtimal olarak- g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.  Daha geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7eveden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, neoconlar\u0131n emperyalist sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve tek kutuplu d\u00fcnya arzusuna, \u00f6te yanda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131-emperyal tutumuna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin alaca\u011f\u0131 dolayl\u0131 tutumun en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde belirleyici bir etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Veryans\u0131n<\/em>, 01. 04. 2022<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan Ukrayna i\u015fgalinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 24 \u015eubat\u2019tan hemen \u00f6nce ve sonra Putin y\u00f6netimine, biri T\u00fcm Rusya Subaylar Meclisi\u2019nden, di\u011feri ise SSCB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra legal faaliyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nden olmak \u00fczere, iki uyar\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.          Her iki uyar\u0131 da Ukrayna i\u015fgalinin sa\u011flam bir gerek\u00e7eye dayanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201ckesin sonu\u00e7lu sava\u015f\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu, asker\u00ee giri\u015fimin Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik ve … <\/p>\n

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