{"id":1075,"date":"2022-03-25T10:33:53","date_gmt":"2022-03-25T08:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1075"},"modified":"2022-03-25T10:33:53","modified_gmt":"2022-03-25T08:33:53","slug":"rusyayi-hissetmek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1075","title":{"rendered":"RUSYA\u2019YI H\u0130SSETMEK"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarih boyunca Rusya imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetleri ile politik hedefleri aras\u0131nda denge kuramad\u0131. Dengesizli\u011fin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 her kriz \u00fclkede devrimlere, kar\u015f\u0131devrimlere ya da saray darbelerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         1904\u2019te Kore ve Man\u00e7urya i\u00e7in verilen payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131nda Japonlar Port Arthur\u2019da demirlemi\u015f Rus Uzakdo\u011fu Filosu\u2019na sald\u0131rd\u0131lar.  Bunun \u00fczerine \u00c7ar, Balt\u0131k donanmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye sevk etti.  Japonya\u2019n\u0131n h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgeye gecikerek ula\u015fan Rus gemileri Tsu\u015fima bo\u011faz\u0131nda pusuya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc ve imha edildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Yenilgi, Rusya\u2019ya 1905 Devrimi olarak yans\u0131d\u0131. \u00c7ar II. Nikolay anayasay\u0131 kabul etti ve Duma\u2019y\u0131 (parlamento) a\u00e7t\u0131. Rusya me\u015frut\u00ee monar\u015fiye ge\u00e7ti.  \u0130lk kez Sovyet denilen i\u015f\u00e7i k\u00f6yl\u00fc asker meclisi kuruldu. Ayaklanmalar ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7ar, Duma\u2019y\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Ba\u015fbakan ve \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Piyotr Stolipin ayaklanmalar\u0131 ezdi (kapsaml\u0131 bir analiz i\u00e7in bkz. Lev Tro\u00e7ki, 1905<\/em>, Tarih Bilinci Yay\u0131nevi, 2004).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda Rusya 9,7 milyon askeri cepheye s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Fakat ne asker\u00ee teknolojiye ne de bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir orduya komuta edecek yeti\u015fmi\u015f subay kadrosuna sahipti.  \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n amcas\u0131 Ba\u015fkomutan Grand\u00fck Nikolay Nikolayevi\u00e7  sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6netemeyince, \u00c7ar daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir se\u00e7im yaparak Ba\u015fkomutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bizzat \u00fcstlendi (Abraham Ascher 2020, Say, s. 199).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Ba\u015fta \u0130ngiltere olmak \u00fczere \u0130tilaf devletleri sava\u015f sona erdi\u011finde \u0130stanbul\u2019u, Bo\u011fazlar\u2019\u0131 ve Kuzeydo\u011fu Anadolu\u2019yu Ruslara b\u0131rakmay\u0131 vaat etmi\u015flerdi.  \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n asker\u00ee uzmanlar\u0131 \u0130stanbul\u2019un ve Marmara\u2019n\u0131n fethi i\u00e7in ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 planlar haz\u0131rlad\u0131lar (bu konuda bkz. Altay Cengizer 2017, \u00f6zellikle bl.19, s. 511-555).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Hantal Rus Ordusu I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda Tannenberg\u2019ten (27-9 A\u011fustos 1914) ba\u015flayarak s\u00fcrekli yenilgiye u\u011frad\u0131. Yenilgi Rusya\u2019ya 1917 Devrimi olarak yans\u0131d\u0131. Bol\u015fevikler Brest-Litovsk Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla (1918) \u0130mparatorluk\u2019un Ukrayna d\u00e2hil bat\u0131 h\u00e2kimiyet alan\u0131n\u0131 terk ettiler. O s\u0131rada Polonya Avrupa devrimi ile Rusya aras\u0131na dikilmi\u015f bir engel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.  Tro\u00e7ki\u2019nin 1920\u2019de komuta etti\u011fi \u201cNapoleonik\u201d Polonya seferi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131, Riga Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019yla (1921) \u015fimdiki Ukrayna-Polonya s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na benzer bir hat olu\u015fturuldu.  Daha sonra Stalin, Hitler\u2019le ittifak kurarak (1939) kaybedilen b\u00f6lgeleri geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Asl\u0131nda Komintern de (Lenin\u2019in kurdu\u011fu III. Enternasyonal) Rusya\u2019n\u0131n imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetleri ile politik hedefleri aras\u0131ndaki dengesizli\u011fin bir ba\u015fka g\u00f6stergesidir. Avrupa\u2019daki sol hareketleri birle\u015ftiremedi, krizleri devrime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcremedi. III. Enternasyonal 1930\u2019larda Sovyet d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n uzant\u0131s\u0131na ve bir t\u00fcr istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda M\u00fcttefikler\u2019e (ABD ve \u0130ngiltere) g\u00fcvence vermek i\u00e7in kapat\u0131ld\u0131 (1943). Mao Zedung, y\u0131llar sonra, 1958\u2019de, Komintern\u2019in  \u00c7KP\u2019ye m\u00fcdahalesini kastederek, \u201c\u00c7in Devrimi Stalin\u2019in iradesine kar\u015f\u0131 zafer kazand\u0131\u201d diyecekti (Yay\u0131nlanmam\u0131\u015f Yaz\u0131lar<\/em> 1956-1971, May Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, s. 54).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rus hesaps\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rne\u011fi Finlandiya K\u0131\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019d\u0131r.   Hitler-Stalin Pakt\u0131\u2019ndan (1939) hemen sonra,   30 Kas\u0131m 1939 g\u00fcn\u00fc be\u015f Sovyet Ordusu 1287 km. uzunlu\u011fundaki Finlandiya s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndan taarruz etti, fakat k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Finlandiya Ordusu\u2019nun  Mannerheim  Tahkimat\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131. Sava\u015f neredeyse bir y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Nihayet i\u015fgal tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (sadece Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyi), Rus Devlet Asker\u00ee Ar\u015fivi\u2019nin  2013 g\u00fcncellemesine g\u00f6re  K\u0131z\u0131l Ordu 167 976 \u00f6l\u00fc ve kay\u0131p vermi\u015fti. Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131 ise sadece 25 904 kadard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Peki neden b\u00f6yle olmu\u015ftu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Politb\u00fcro, Stalin\u2019in g\u00fcvenmedi\u011fi eski \u00c7arl\u0131k subay\u0131 General Boris \u015eapo\u015fnikov\u2019un sava\u015f plan\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bulmu\u015f, Kulik ve Voronov gibi siyaseti g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fakat askerli\u011fi zay\u0131f komutanlar\u0131n c\u00fcretk\u00e2r ve iyimser  plan\u0131n\u0131 onaylam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00dcstelik 1937-38 aras\u0131nda Stalin, i\u00e7 sava\u015fta tecr\u00fcbe kazanm\u0131\u015f profesyonel genel kurmay kadrosunu, ba\u015fta General Mihail Tuha\u00e7evskiy olmak \u00fczere, komplo ku\u015fkusuyla kur\u015funa dizdirmi\u015fti.  Asker\u00ee plan, kabiliyet ve doktrin a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plar\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rusya\u2019n\u0131n imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetlerini politik hedeflerine uydurma ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakk\u0131nda i\u00e7 siyasetinden d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131na, sanayile\u015fme politikas\u0131ndan sosyalizm yorumuna kadar pek \u00e7ok \u00f6rnek verilebilir.  Fakat Glasnost ve Perestroyka hepsinin \u00fczerine t\u00fcy dikmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sarho\u015f Yeltsin, Belovej Orman\u0131\u2019nda att\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir imzayla (1991) Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ni da\u011f\u0131tm\u0131\u015f, Sovyet halk\u0131n\u0131n muazzam bir emekle in\u015fa etti\u011fi b\u00fct\u00fcn iktisadi de\u011ferler, ans\u0131z\u0131n oligarklara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek \u00fcretim ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zel m\u00fclkiyetine ge\u00e7iren b\u00fcrokrasiye pe\u015fke\u015f \u00e7ekilmi\u015f, \u00fclke d\u00f6rt nala kapitalizme do\u011fru giderken KGB ve baz\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131l Ordu birlikleri  son bir hamleyle reformcular\u0131 tasfiye etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f  (18-21 A\u011fustos 1991), darbe ezilince  Genel Kurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sergey Ahromeyev, Gorba\u00e7ev\u2019e hitaben yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 mektupta, hayat\u0131n\u0131 adad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kertilmesine katlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek intihar etmi\u015ftir (24 A\u011fustos).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tarihi trajiktir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Trajedinin sebebi Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrasya k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki jeostratejik konumunun ve \u0130mparatorluk \u00f6zleminin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, g\u00fcc\u00fc ile ihtiraslar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki hesaps\u0131z ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcz uyumsuzluktur. Putin\u2019in \u201cRusya ak\u0131lla, mant\u0131kla anla\u015f\u0131lamaz, ancak hissedilir\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc yabana at\u0131lamaz.  Sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 neoconlar\u0131n ABD y\u00f6netimindeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Pentagon\u2019daki generallerin ve her krizde ABD\u2019nin kuyru\u011funa tak\u0131lmak gibi tarih\u00ee bir zaaf sergileyen Avrupal\u0131 \u00e7aps\u0131z y\u00f6neticilerin bu kez Rus ruhunu hissetmelerini umar\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         ABD\u2019nin Rusya\u2019y\u0131 NATO\u2019yla \u00e7evreleyerek teslim alma takti\u011fi ne kadar tehlikeliyse, Putin oligar\u015fisinin eski Rus imparatorluk alan\u0131na do\u011fru geni\u015fleme arzusu da o kadar hayalcidir (Dugin: \u201cSava\u015f, imparatorluk mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ulus-devlet aras\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d). Birincisi ate\u015fle oynarken, ikincisi daha \u015fimdiden imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetinin \u00e7ok \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evrensel k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn zirvesinde yer alan edebiyat\u0131na, m\u00fczi\u011fine, devrimci ruhuna ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel birikimine hayranl\u0131k duydu\u011fumuz Rusya, tarihinin hi\u00e7bir d\u00f6neminde sabit s\u0131n\u0131rlara sahip olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (Putin: \u201cRusya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 yoktur.\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn k\u00fcresel asker\u00ee plan ve stratejileri alt\u00fcst eden Ukrayna krizi bu konuda belki bir f\u0131rsat sa\u011flar.  Bat\u0131 \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rus \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun ve dininin do\u011fum yeri olan Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan Dinyeper do\u011fusunu ve Donbass b\u00f6lgesini Rusya\u2019ya b\u0131rakmas\u0131, K\u0131r\u0131m ile anakaran\u0131n birle\u015fmesine r\u0131za g\u00f6stermesi ve NATO\u2019nun geni\u015flemesini durdurmas\u0131 gerekir.  Arabuluculuk s\u00f6z konusu olacaksa, bunu yapabilecek tek \u00fclke, k\u00fcresel d\u00fcnya kapitalizmi i\u00e7inde kendine yer a\u00e7maktan ve n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131 edinmekten ba\u015fka amac\u0131 olmayan, yeni bir d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 istemeyen \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019dir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Krizin ard\u0131ndan, yeni So\u011fuk Sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ya da yok edilmesi i\u00e7in bir anla\u015fma s\u00fcreci ba\u015flat\u0131lmal\u0131 ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler kurumu revize edilmeli, Cenevre Konvansiyonu yenilenmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00f6yle olmaz da Bat\u0131 \u0130ttifak\u0131, Rusya i\u00e7in Dimitriy Peskov\u2019un dedi\u011fi gibi bir \u201cvarolu\u015f sorunu\u201d yarat\u0131rsa, d\u00fcnya felakete s\u00fcr\u00fcklenir. Hem \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n taht\u0131nda hem de Politb\u00fcro makam\u0131nda oturan Kremlin\u2019in sahibi Putin, kendi adamlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan bir saray darbesiyle devrilmedi\u011fi taktirde n\u00fckleer silah kullanmaktan asla \u00e7ekinmeyecektir. Yaz\u0131k olur. \u0130nsan akl\u0131 ve iradesi modern zamanlarda ilk kez bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131navla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya\u2026 Veryans\u0131n<\/em>,25.03.2022  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan Tarih boyunca Rusya imk\u00e2n ve kabiliyetleri ile politik hedefleri aras\u0131nda denge kuramad\u0131. Dengesizli\u011fin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 her kriz \u00fclkede devrimlere, kar\u015f\u0131devrimlere ya da saray darbelerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.          1904\u2019te Kore ve Man\u00e7urya i\u00e7in verilen payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131nda Japonlar Port Arthur\u2019da demirlemi\u015f Rus Uzakdo\u011fu Filosu\u2019na sald\u0131rd\u0131lar.  Bunun \u00fczerine \u00c7ar, Balt\u0131k donanmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye sevk etti.  Japonya\u2019n\u0131n h\u00e2kim … <\/p>\n

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