{"id":1037,"date":"2022-02-18T09:16:08","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T07:16:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1037"},"modified":"2022-02-18T09:16:08","modified_gmt":"2022-02-18T07:16:08","slug":"ideoloji-ve-jeopolitik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/yavuzalogan.com\/?p=1037","title":{"rendered":"\u0130DEOLOJ\u0130 VE JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Yavuz Alogan<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Bol\u015fevikler iktidar\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdiklerinde (1917) Rus jeopoliti\u011finin fark\u0131ndayd\u0131lar. En az\u0131ndan, son \u00c7ar II. Nikolay\u2019\u0131n \u00e7evresindeki asker, akademisyen ve co\u011frafyac\u0131 teorisyenlerin raporlar\u0131n\u0131 okumu\u015flar, \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n saray\u0131nda bulduklar\u0131 emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131 incelemi\u015flerdi. Bunlar\u0131 \u0130zvestiya<\/em>\u2019da yay\u0131mlad\u0131lar.  \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n onay\u0131yla Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nu par\u00e7alama planlar\u0131, Sevr\u2019in babas\u0131 olan Sykes-Picot anla\u015fmas\u0131 (1916) b\u00f6ylece ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Brest-Litovsk Antla\u015fmas\u0131 (1918) devrim sonras\u0131nda Ruslar\u0131n ilk jeopolitik felaketi oldu. Balt\u0131k b\u00f6lgesini, Polonya, Finlandiya, Beyaz Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 kaybettiler. 1920\u2019de K\u0131z\u0131l Ordu Var\u015fova\u2019ya kadar  ilerleyerek 1918\u2019de kaybedilen b\u00f6lgeleri geri almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ysa da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131  olamad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         B\u00f6ylece g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde NATO\u2019nun Rusya\u2019y\u0131 \u00e7evrelemek i\u00e7in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu hat (Balt\u0131k, Polonya, Romanya, Bulgaristan, Bat\u0131 Ukrayna, Dedea\u011fa\u00e7, Larissa vs) neredeyse ayn\u0131 co\u011frafya \u00fczerinde kurulmu\u015f oldu. D\u00f6nemin Fransa Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Clemenceau, 1920\u2019de  bu hatta \u201ccordon sanitaire\u201d (g\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131) dedi: Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 kom\u00fcnizmden koruyan g\u00fcvenlik kalkan\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         D\u00f6nemin D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Halk Komiseri Lev Tro\u00e7ki, y\u0131llar sonra, 1939\u2019da, Bol\u015feviklerin devrim sonras\u0131 jeopolitik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu s\u00f6zlerle a\u00e7\u0131klayacakt\u0131: \u201c\u00c7arl\u0131k \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede meydana gelen proletarya devrimi, daha ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren Balt\u0131k \u00fclkelerini fethetme giri\u015fiminde bulundu … bir ara (1920) ordular\u0131n\u0131 Var\u015fova\u2019ya kadar g\u00f6nderdi\u201d (L. Tro\u00e7ki, Marksizmi Savunurken<\/em>, Kardelen 1992, s. 59).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Tro\u00e7ki \u201cDevrimci yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131\u201d kavram\u0131n\u0131 kullanm\u0131\u015f ve \u015f\u00f6yle demi\u015ftir: \u201cDevrimci yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131 \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 idi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc devrim co\u011frafi ko\u015fullar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmez\u201d (agy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Co\u011frafi ko\u015fullar\u0131n gerektirdi\u011fi jeopolitik   1920\u2019lerden g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze kadar de\u011fi\u015fmedi. \u00c7arl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, Kom\u00fcnistlerin ve Putin Oligar\u015fisi\u2019nin hem yay\u0131lma, hem de savunma hatlar\u0131 ayn\u0131 kald\u0131. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Rusya ya imparatorluk olmaktan vazge\u00e7erek savunmaya \u00e7ekilecek ve giderek orta boy bir kapitalist devlete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecek ya da eski savunma hatlar\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015farak ele ge\u00e7irmeye ve\/ya da ba\u015fka mevziler edinerek jeopolitik kayb\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ideoloji ile jeopolitik aras\u0131nda denge kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.  1930\u2019lar\u0131n sonuna kadar ideolojiyi jeopolitik hedeflere ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in kulland\u0131. Daha sonra jeopoliti\u011fi ideolojik yay\u0131lma amac\u0131yla kulland\u0131: 1939 Molotov-Ribbendrop Antla\u015fmas\u0131 (Hitler-Stalin Pakt\u0131) sayesinde Finlandiya\u2019y\u0131, Polonya\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 Balt\u0131k \u00fclkesini ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         1941\u2019de Almanlar\u2019\u0131n Barbarossa Harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hepsini kaybetti, Naziler Moskova\u2019ya kadar geldiler. Fakat Stalingrad\u2019dan (1943) sonra K\u0131z\u0131l Ordu, Berlin\u2019e kadar ilerledi ve \u00c7arl\u0131k\u2019\u0131n \u201cyay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131\u201dn\u0131n da \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek b\u00fct\u00fcn Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 \u201cfethetti.\u201d  Clemencau\u2019nun \u201cg\u00fcvenlik ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131\u201dn\u0131n yerini Churchill\u2019in \u201cDemir Perde\u201dsi ald\u0131, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u0130deoloji ile jeopolitik birle\u015fti ve bu birlik 46 y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc.  Ruslar sosyalizmin Sovyet versiyonu sayesinde, \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir co\u011frafyada ideolojiyi farkl\u0131 devletlerin, milletlerin, dinlerin ve etnik gruplar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutarak, asker\u00ee (Var\u015fova Pakt\u0131,1955-1991) ve ekonomik (COMECON, 1949-1991) bir imparatorluk kurmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131lar. Sistem elbette m\u00fckemmel de\u011fildi (erken bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in bkz. H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Carr\u00e8re d\u2019Encausse, Par\u00e7alanan \u0130mparatorluk<\/em>, Sisav 1984) fakat Brejnev d\u00f6neminin (\u201duzun k\u0131\u015f uykusu\u201d) sonuna kadar ayakta kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi 1991\u2019de Belovej anla\u015fmas\u0131yla geldi (Putin: \u201c20. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik felaketi\u201d). Sovyetler Birli\u011fi da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130\u00e7ten i\u00e7e \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcyen, yozla\u015fan sistem \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan NATO\u2019nun stratejik geni\u015flemesi ba\u015flad\u0131. Ronald Reagan ve Helmut Kohl, NATO s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n asla de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi konusunda Gorba\u00e7ev\u2019e verdikleri \u201cs\u00f6zl\u00fc g\u00fcvence\u201dyi umursamad\u0131lar. Polonya 1999\u2019da, Estonya-Letonya-Litvanya ve Bulgaristan 2004\u2019te, Romanya 2007\u2019de NATO\u2019ya ge\u00e7ti. Rusya \u201cileriden savunma hatlar\u0131\u201dn\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Sovyet jeopoliti\u011fi ideolojisiyle birlikte iflas etti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu iflas b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in felaket oldu; sosyal refah devleti, toplumsal kalk\u0131nma idealleri, planl\u0131 karma ekonomi Sovyet sistemiyle birlikte \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc ve vah\u015fi kapitalizm dizginlerinden bo\u015falarak b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi.  II. Enternasyonal\u2019den arta kalan sosyal demokrat partiler h\u0131zla neoliberalizmin saf\u0131na ge\u00e7tiler.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Rusya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc ve yaraland\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki Varegler\u2019in Rus kabilesinden Novgorod Knezi Kral Rurik\u2019in torunlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan 880\u2019lerde kurulan ilk Slav kenti Kiev g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir devletin ba\u015fkenti…  Bursa ya da Trakya\u2019n\u0131n ayr\u0131 bir asker\u00ee pakta girmek \u00fczere devletle\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Neyse uzatmayal\u0131m\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         KGB albay\u0131 Putin, \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n ve Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Y\u00fcksek Prezidyumu\u2019nun b\u00fct\u00fcn yetkilerini kendi \u015fahs\u0131nda toplayarak \u0130mparatorluk\u2019u gev\u015fek bir federasyon yap\u0131s\u0131nda birle\u015ftirdi; Bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 oligarklar\u0131 tasfiye etti ve kusursuz bir diktat\u00f6rl\u00fck kurarak  Sovyet tarz\u0131 sosyalist ideolojinin yerine Ortodoks H\u0131ristiyanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7irdi ve  devlet b\u00fcrokrasisini  \u0130van \u0130lyin gibi gerici\/fa\u015fist ideologlar\u0131n emperyal Ortodoks ideolojisiyle donatt\u0131 (bu konuda bkz. Yavuz Alogan, \u201c\u0130van \u0130lyin\u2019i Tan\u0131yal\u0131m,\u201d Veryans\u0131ntv<\/em> ar\u015fivi 24. 01. 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Ancak Ortodoks H\u0131ristiyan devlet ideolojisinin farkl\u0131 milliyetlerden, din\u00ee ve etnik mensubiyetlerden olu\u015fan ve k\u00fcresel sermaye hareketlerinin giderek gev\u015fetti\u011fi federasyonu bir arada tutamayaca\u011f\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde % 2 civar\u0131nda paya sahip olan bir devletin iktisad\u00ee entegrasyonu sa\u011flayamayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.  Putin Oligar\u015fisi, kopma ihtimali olan yerlerde asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanmaya (2008 G\u00fcney Osetya) ya da kar\u015f\u0131 darbe d\u00fczenlemeye (Nazarbayev\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 Tokayev) ya da yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiklerini (Belarus) silahland\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Jeopolitik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irip 19 km\u2019lik Ker\u00e7 k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcyle ana karaya ba\u011flad\u0131; karasal ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olmayan f\u00fcze \u00fcss\u00fc Kaliningrad\u2019\u0131 faaliyete ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Putin gaz-petrol jeopoliti\u011fini Atlantik ittifak\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lmek i\u00e7in  kullan\u0131yor, n\u00fckleer ve konvansiyonel silah kapasitesini geni\u015fletiyor, Akdeniz b\u00f6lgesinde giri\u015fimlerde bulunuyor (Suriye-Libya).  Kendisini \u00e7evreleyen g\u00fc\u00e7leri daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7embere almak i\u00e7in denizlere a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor, buzlar\u0131n eridi\u011fi kuzey kutup dairesinde askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.  Aleksander Dugin\u2019in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 terimle \u201cb\u00f6lgesel devletler\u201di (T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran, Suriye) ba\u011fl\u0131 tutmaya ya da ba\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor, \u00c7in\u2019le ekonomik anla\u015fmalar, ortak asker\u00ee tatbikatlar yap\u0131yor. Ko\u015fullar\u0131 imk\u00e2n vermese de \u201cs\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d gibi davran\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hen\u00fcz sona ermeyen Donbass krizinde n\u00fckleer ve konvansiyonel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc bir tehdit arac\u0131 olarak kulland\u0131 ve taktik d\u00fczeyde \u015fimdilik ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         N\u00fckleer sava\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6ze alsa da almasa da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7arl\u0131k ve Sovyet imparatorlu\u011funun \u201cyay\u0131lma hatlar\u0131\u201dna ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve eski \u201cileriden savunma mevzileri\u201dni yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmesi ya da  stratejik bo\u015flu\u011fu ba\u015fka y\u00f6nlerde farkl\u0131 co\u011frafyalarla  telafi etmesi bug\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u015fartlar\u0131nda neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r. Stratejik savunma durumunda ancak taktik taarruzlar yapabilir. S\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 1991\u2019de stratejik olarak kaybetti. Ortodoks H\u0131ristiyanl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ideolojik bir birle\u015ftiriciye, n\u00fckleer silahlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir tehdit imk\u00e2n\u0131na, petrol ve gaz gelirleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik bir kayna\u011fa sahip de\u011fil.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orta uzun vadede Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in \u201cdolayl\u0131 tutum\u201d stratejisinin (sava\u015fmadan ekonomik yay\u0131lmac\u0131l\u0131kla kazanma) bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmas\u0131 ya da Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kadim Ostpolitik\u2019inin (do\u011fu politikas\u0131) bir uzant\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek orta boy bir demokratik kapitalist \u00fclke olarak yeniden yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 beklenmelidir. K\u00fclt\u00fcrl\u00fc ve deneyimli Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n Putin oligar\u015fisini Ortodoks \u00c7ar ya da Stalin\u2019in politb\u00fcrosu gibi uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131rt\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir sebep yoktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         Yery\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn enlemlerinde ve boylamlar\u0131nda ayn\u0131 kapitalist \u00fcretim ili\u015fkileri h\u00e2kimdir ve esas sorun bu h\u00e2kimiyetin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gelir e\u015fitsizli\u011fi ve hayat standartlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen muazzam farkl\u0131l\u0131kt\u0131r.    H\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ekolojik dengenin bozulmas\u0131, n\u00fckleer ve konvansiyonel silahlanma \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sona ermedik\u00e7e d\u00fcnyan\u0131n   gelece\u011fi yoktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

         \u00c7ok kutuplu, hatta pek \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnya, tek ya da iki kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyadan daha iyi ve daha g\u00fcvenlidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek bir uygarl\u0131k seviyesi vard\u0131r. Bu nedenle, y\u00fckselen Avrasya uygarl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Bat\u0131 medeniyeti, H\u0131ristiyan ve \u0130slam medeniyetleri gibi alternatifler \u00fczerinden siyaset \u00fcretmeye kalk\u0131\u015fmak, Samuel Huntington\u2019\u0131n   1996\u2019da  Medeniyetler \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 teziyle yakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 cehennem ate\u015fine k\u00fct\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131maktan ba\u015fka bir i\u015fe yaramaz. Medeniyetler yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 maskelemektedir.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

yalogan@gmail.com<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yavuz Alogan          Bol\u015fevikler iktidar\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdiklerinde (1917) Rus jeopoliti\u011finin fark\u0131ndayd\u0131lar. En az\u0131ndan, son \u00c7ar II. Nikolay\u2019\u0131n \u00e7evresindeki asker, akademisyen ve co\u011frafyac\u0131 teorisyenlerin raporlar\u0131n\u0131 okumu\u015flar, \u00c7ar\u2019\u0131n saray\u0131nda bulduklar\u0131 emperyalist payla\u015f\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131 incelemi\u015flerdi. Bunlar\u0131 \u0130zvestiya\u2019da yay\u0131mlad\u0131lar.  \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n onay\u0131yla Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nu par\u00e7alama planlar\u0131, Sevr\u2019in babas\u0131 olan Sykes-Picot anla\u015fmas\u0131 (1916) b\u00f6ylece ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.          Brest-Litovsk … <\/p>\n

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